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Merthyr Town - Truro City

FA Cup September 19, 2026 16:00
Merthyr Town
vs
Truro City
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.18%
Win
Merthyr Town
28.95%
Draw
35.87%
Win
Truro City
1.26
Expected xG
1.34

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.45%)
1X2 Result
1 35%
X 29%
2 36%
Double Chance
1X 64%
X2 65%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 60%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Merthyr Town a 35% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Truro City. Expected goals are 1.3 for Merthyr Town and 1.3 for Truro City (total 2.6), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.45% probability.

Season Stats

Merthyr Town
1W 0D 1L
Truro City
0W 2D 0L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.0
0.5
Conceded
1.0
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
0%
0%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 2 matches in FA Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Merthyr Town
1W 0D 1L · at home
Truro City
0W 1D 0L · away
2.0
gls/g
1.0
0.5
Conceded
1.0
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
100%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
0%
50%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
50%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Merthyr Town Truro City →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4% 10.0% 6.7% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
1 9.3% 12.5% 8.4% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3%
2 5.9% 7.9% 5.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
3 2.5% 3.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Merthyr Town Merthyr Town
L Hampton & Richmond 0–1
W Torpoint Athletic 4–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 31%
Truro City Truro City
D AFC Totton 1–1
D AFC Totton 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 40%

Playing profile

Merthyr Town Merthyr Town
Attack
34
Defence
72
Form
58
Truro City Truro City
Attack
36
Defence
90
Form
65
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Truro City?
The model gives Merthyr Town a 35% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 35% for an Truro City win.
How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Truro City?
Expected goals: Merthyr Town 1.3, Truro City 1.3 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in Merthyr Town vs Truro City?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.45%.