J. Quinones
(ast. R. Alvarado)
22'
R. Jimenez
(ast. J. Quinones)
31'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 51% win probability (draw 30%, Ecuador 17%). The final result was Mexico 2–0 Ecuador. In 1 previous meetings, Mexico have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Ecuador.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
1
1.02
Actual xG
0.73
1
Saves
1
43%
Possession
57%
3
Corners
8
10
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Quinones
· ast. R. Alvarado
22'
⚽R. Jimenez
· ast. J. Quinones
31'
45'+1
A. Franco
46'
Y. Medina
/
A. Franco
46'
A. Preciado
/
J. Ordonez
G. Mora
/ B. Gutierrez
58'
59'
K. Rodriguez
/
E. Valencia
L. Romo
/ O. Vargas
73'
R. Jimenez
/ S. Gimenez
74'
79'
J. Caicedo
/
J. Yeboah
79'
K. Paez
/
N. Angulo
J. Quinones
/ O. Pineda
80'
R. Alvarado
/ I. Reyes
80'
90'+3
K. Paez
90'+5
P. Hincapie
90'+9
M. Caicedo
Pre-match prediction
51.9%
Mexico ←
30.44%
X
17.66%
Ecuador
we assigned to the actual result (Mexico)
51.9%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.67
1.02
-0.65
0.83
0.73
-0.1
xG dominance was balanced (1.02 – 0.73).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Raúl Rangel
G
Raúl Rangel
G
23
Jesús Gallardo
D
Jesús Gallardo
D
5
Johan Vásquez
D
Johan Vásquez
D
3
C. Montes
D
C. Montes
D
2
Jorge Sánchez
D
Jorge Sánchez
D
7
L. Romo
73'
M
L. Romo
73'
M
6
Erik Lira
M
Erik Lira
M
19
G. Mora
58'
M
G. Mora
58'
M
16
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
1 👟
80'
F
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
1 👟
80'
F
9
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
74'
F
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
74'
F
25
R. Alvarado
1 👟
80'
F
R. Alvarado
1 👟
80'
F
Bench
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
14
Armando González
F
Armando González
F
10
A. Vega
F
A. Vega
F
26
B. Gutiérrez
32'
M
B. Gutiérrez
32'
M
12
C. Acevedo
G
C. Acevedo
G
21
C. Huerta
M
C. Huerta
M
4
E. Álvarez
M
E. Álvarez
M
22
G. Martínez
F
G. Martínez
F
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
Israel Reyes
10'
D
Israel Reyes
10'
D
24
Luis Chávez
M
Luis Chávez
M
20
Mateo Chávez
D
Mateo Chávez
D
18
Obed Vargas
17'
M
Obed Vargas
17'
M
17
Orbelín Pineda
10'
M
Orbelín Pineda
10'
M
11
Santiago Giménez
16'
F
Santiago Giménez
16'
F
1
Hernán Galíndez
G
Hernán Galíndez
G
3
P. Hincapié
D
P. Hincapié
D
6
Willian Pacho
D
Willian Pacho
D
4
J. Ordoñez
45'
D
J. Ordoñez
45'
D
21
Alan Franco
45'
D
Alan Franco
45'
D
20
Nilson Angulo
79'
M
Nilson Angulo
79'
M
15
P. Vite
M
P. Vite
M
23
M. Caicedo
M
M. Caicedo
M
9
John Yeboah
79'
M
John Yeboah
79'
M
13
E. Valencia
59'
F
E. Valencia
59'
F
19
G. Plata
F
G. Plata
F
Bench
14
Alan Minda
F
Alan Minda
F
17
Ángelo Preciado
45'
D
Ángelo Preciado
45'
D
8
A. Valencia
F
A. Valencia
F
18
Denil Castillo
M
Denil Castillo
M
2
Félix Torres
D
Félix Torres
D
22
Gonzalo Valle
G
Gonzalo Valle
G
25
Jackson Porozo
D
Jackson Porozo
D
24
Jeremy Arevalo
F
Jeremy Arevalo
F
5
Jordy Alcivar
M
Jordy Alcivar
M
16
Jordy Caicedo
11'
F
Jordy Caicedo
11'
F
10
Kendry Páez
11'
M
Kendry Páez
11'
M
11
K. Rodríguez
31'
F
K. Rodríguez
31'
F
12
Moisés Ramírez
G
Moisés Ramírez
G
7
Pervis Estupiñán
D
Pervis Estupiñán
D
26
Y. Medina
45'
D
Y. Medina
45'
D
Best on the pitch
J. Quiñones
F · Mexico
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 23 pass
Raúl Rangel
G · Mexico
7.70
· 35 pass
Johan Vásquez
D · Mexico
7.70
1 shots
· 44 pass
C. Montes
D · Mexico
7.70
1 shots
· 29 pass
R. Jiménez
F · Mexico
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 19 pass
John Yeboah
M · Ecuador
7.30
2 shots
· 15 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Gallardo | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 38% | — | — | — |
| C. Montes | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Sánchez | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Romo | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Erik Lira | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Mora | M | 58 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | F | 80 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Jiménez | F | 74 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 19 | 12% | — | — | — |
| R. Alvarado | F | 80 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| B. Gutiérrez | M | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Israel Reyes | D | 10 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Obed Vargas | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Orbelín Pineda | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Giménez | F | 16 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Ecuador — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernán Galíndez | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 11% | — | — | — |
| P. Hincapié | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 3 | — | 1 |
| Willian Pacho | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 44 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ordoñez | D | 45 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Alan Franco | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Nilson Angulo | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Vite | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 68 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Caicedo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 64 | 57% | 1 | 1 | — |
| John Yeboah | M | 79 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 59 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| G. Plata | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Ángelo Preciado | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Jordy Caicedo | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Kendry Páez | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Rodríguez | F | 31 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Y. Medina | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs Ecuador?
The final score was Mexico 2–0 Ecuador.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs Ecuador?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Mexico win, 30% to a draw, and 17% to an Ecuador win.