Mexico - Ecuador
Weather at kick-off
☁️
Overcast
26.5°C
💨 12 km/h
· Kuwait
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.69%
Win
Mexico
29.4%
Draw
15.9%
Win
Ecuador
1.71
0.85
Expected xG
Most likely result
1–0
(13.2%)
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
47%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mexico a 54% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 15% for Ecuador. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mexico and 0.9 for Ecuador (total 2.6), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.2% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Mexico have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Ecuador.
Season Stats
3W
0D
0L
1W
1D
1L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
0.7
0.0
Conceded
0.7
4.3
Shots OT
6.0
1.3
Corners
3.7
51%
Poss.
56%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
33%
33%
O 2.5
33%
0%
BTTS
33%
100%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 3 matches in World Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 1.5
0%
O 2.5
0%
O 3.5
0%
BTTS
2W
0D
0L
· at home
0W
0D
1L
· away
1.5
gls/g
0.0
0.0
Conceded
1.0
100%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
0%
50%
O 1.5
0%
0%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
0%
100%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
100%
last 2
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Mexico
Ecuador →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | — |
| 1 | 13.2% | 11.2% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | — |
| 2 | 11.3% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — |
| 3 | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Mexico
Attack
44
Defence
87
Form
76
Ecuador
Attack
43
Defence
82
Form
37
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
1
Draw
0
1 Jul 2024
0–0
Group A
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Mexico
|
3 | 9 |
| 2 |
South Africa
|
3 | 4 |
| 3 |
South Korea
|
3 | 3 |
| 4 |
Czechia
|
3 | 1 |
What's at stake · Group A
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #1 |
| → Mexico | #1 | #1 |
| → Draw | #1 | #1 |
| → Ecuador | #1 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mexico vs Ecuador?
The model gives Mexico a 54% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 15% for an Ecuador win.
How many goals are expected in Mexico vs Ecuador?
Expected goals: Mexico 1.7, Ecuador 0.9 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Mexico vs Ecuador?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.2%.