J. Quinones
(ast. R. Alvarado)
22'
R. Jimenez
(ast. J. Quinones)
31'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 51% win probability (draw 30%, Ecuador 17%). The final result was Mexico 2–0 Ecuador. In 1 previous meetings, Mexico have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Ecuador.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
1
1.02
Actual xG
0.73
1
Saves
1
43%
Possession
57%
3
Corners
8
10
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Quinones
· ast. R. Alvarado
22'
⚽R. Jimenez
· ast. J. Quinones
31'
45'+1
A. Franco
46'
Y. Medina
/
A. Franco
46'
A. Preciado
/
J. Ordonez
G. Mora
/ B. Gutierrez
58'
59'
K. Rodriguez
/
E. Valencia
L. Romo
/ O. Vargas
73'
R. Jimenez
/ S. Gimenez
74'
79'
J. Caicedo
/
J. Yeboah
79'
K. Paez
/
N. Angulo
J. Quinones
/ O. Pineda
80'
R. Alvarado
/ I. Reyes
80'
90'+3
K. Paez
90'+5
P. Hincapie
90'+9
M. Caicedo
Pre-match prediction
51.9%
Mexico ←
30.44%
X
17.66%
Ecuador
we assigned to the actual result (Mexico)
51.9%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.67
1.02
-0.65
0.83
0.73
-0.1
xG dominance was balanced (1.02 – 0.73).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Raúl Rangel
G
Raúl Rangel
G
23
Jesús Gallardo
D
Jesús Gallardo
D
5
J. Vásquez
D
J. Vásquez
D
3
C. Montes
D
C. Montes
D
2
J. Sánchez
D
J. Sánchez
D
7
Luis Romo
73'
M
Luis Romo
73'
M
6
Erik Lira
M
Erik Lira
M
19
Gilberto Mora
58'
M
Gilberto Mora
58'
M
16
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
1 👟
80'
F
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
1 👟
80'
F
9
Raúl Jiménez
1 ⚽
74'
F
Raúl Jiménez
1 ⚽
74'
F
25
Roberto Alvarado
1 👟
80'
F
Roberto Alvarado
1 👟
80'
F
Bench
10
Alexis Vega
F
Alexis Vega
F
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
14
Armando González
F
Armando González
F
26
Brian Gutiérrez
32'
M
Brian Gutiérrez
32'
M
12
Carlos Acevedo
G
Carlos Acevedo
G
21
César Huerta
M
4
E. Álvarez
M
E. Álvarez
M
22
Guillermo Martínez
F
Guillermo Martínez
F
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
Israel Reyes
10'
D
Israel Reyes
10'
D
24
Luis Chávez
M
Luis Chávez
M
20
Mateo Chávez
D
Mateo Chávez
D
18
Obed Vargas
17'
M
Obed Vargas
17'
M
17
Orbelín Pineda
10'
M
Orbelín Pineda
10'
M
11
S. Giménez
16'
F
S. Giménez
16'
F
1
Hernán Galíndez
G
Hernán Galíndez
G
3
P. Hincapié
D
P. Hincapié
D
6
Willian Pacho
D
Willian Pacho
D
4
J. Ordoñez
45'
D
J. Ordoñez
45'
D
21
A. Franco
45'
D
A. Franco
45'
D
20
Nilson Angulo
79'
M
Nilson Angulo
79'
M
15
Pedro Vite
M
Pedro Vite
M
23
M. Caicedo
M
M. Caicedo
M
9
J. Yeboah
79'
M
J. Yeboah
79'
M
13
E. Valencia
59'
F
E. Valencia
59'
F
19
Gonzalo Plata
F
Gonzalo Plata
F
Bench
14
Alan Minda
F
Alan Minda
F
17
Ángelo Preciado
45'
D
Ángelo Preciado
45'
D
8
Anthony Valencia
F
Anthony Valencia
F
18
Denil Castillo
M
Denil Castillo
M
2
Félix Torres
D
Félix Torres
D
22
Gonzalo Valle
G
Gonzalo Valle
G
25
Jackson Porozo
D
Jackson Porozo
D
16
J. Caicedo
11'
F
J. Caicedo
11'
F
24
Jeremy Arevalo
F
Jeremy Arevalo
F
5
Jordy Alcivar
M
Jordy Alcivar
M
10
Kendry Páez
11'
M
Kendry Páez
11'
M
11
Kevin Rodriguez
31'
F
12
M. Ramírez
G
M. Ramírez
G
7
Pervis Estupiñán
D
Pervis Estupiñán
D
26
Yaimar Medina
45'
D
Yaimar Medina
45'
D
Best on the pitch
J. Quiñones
F · Mexico
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 23 pass
Raúl Rangel
G · Mexico
7.70
· 35 pass
J. Vásquez
D · Mexico
7.70
1 shots
· 44 pass
C. Montes
D · Mexico
7.70
1 shots
· 29 pass
Raúl Jiménez
F · Mexico
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 19 pass
J. Yeboah
M · Ecuador
7.30
2 shots
· 15 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Gallardo | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 38% | — | — | — |
| C. Montes | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Sánchez | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Romo | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Erik Lira | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Gilberto Mora | M | 58 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | F | 80 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Raúl Jiménez | F | 74 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 19 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Roberto Alvarado | F | 80 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Brian Gutiérrez | M | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Israel Reyes | D | 10 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Obed Vargas | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Orbelín Pineda | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| S. Giménez | F | 16 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Ecuador — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernán Galíndez | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 11% | — | — | — |
| P. Hincapié | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 3 | — | 1 |
| Willian Pacho | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 44 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ordoñez | D | 45 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| A. Franco | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Nilson Angulo | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Vite | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 68 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Caicedo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 64 | 57% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Yeboah | M | 79 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 59 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Ángelo Preciado | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Caicedo | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Kendry Páez | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin Rodriguez | F | 31 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Yaimar Medina | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs Ecuador?
The final score was Mexico 2–0 Ecuador.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs Ecuador?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Mexico win, 30% to a draw, and 17% to an Ecuador win.