World Cup
· Round of 16
July 06, 2026 03:00
J. Quinones
42'
R. Jimenez
69'
(pen.)
36'
(ast. B. Saka)
J. Bellingham
38'
(ast. H. Kane)
J. Bellingham
(pen.)
60'
H. Kane
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 47% win probability (draw 27%, England 25%). The final result was Mexico 2–3 England.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
5
1.87
Actual xG
1.55
2
Saves
3
67%
Possession
33%
12
Corners
2
16
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
1'
D. Rice
36'
ast. B. Saka ·
J. Bellingham⚽
38'
ast. H. Kane ·
J. Bellingham⚽
⚽J. Quinones
42'
C. Montes
/ E. Alvarez
46'
54'
J. Quansah
57'
J. Stones
/
B. Saka
60'
(pen.)
H. Kane⚽
G. Mora
/ S. Gimenez
61'
L. Romo
/ B. Gutierrez
61'
68'
M. Guehi
⚽R. Jimenez
(pen.)
69'
J. Sanchez
71'
72'
N. O'Reilly
74'
D. Spence
/
N. O'Reilly
75'
D. Burn
/
E. Anderson
J. Sanchez
/ A. Fidalgo
79'
J. Quinones
/ G. Martinez
81'
J. Vasquez
90'+8
90'+8
J. Henderson
90'
M. Rogers
/
H. Kane
Pre-match prediction
47.03%
Mexico
27.16%
X
25.8%
England ←
we assigned to the actual result (England)
25.8%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.84
1.87
+0.03
1.23
1.55
+0.32
Mexico dominated by xG (1.87 vs 1.55).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
J. Rangel
G
J. Rangel
G
23
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
5
J. Vásquez
D
J. Vásquez
D
3
C. Montes
45'
D
C. Montes
45'
D
2
J. Sánchez
79'
D
J. Sánchez
79'
D
7
L. Romo
61'
M
L. Romo
61'
M
6
É. Lira
M
É. Lira
M
19
G. Mora
61'
M
G. Mora
61'
M
16
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
81'
F
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
81'
F
9
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
F
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
F
25
R. Alvarado
F
R. Alvarado
F
Bench
14
A. González
F
A. González
F
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
24'
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
24'
M
10
A. Vega
F
A. Vega
F
26
B. Gutiérrez
42'
M
B. Gutiérrez
42'
M
12
C. Acevedo
G
C. Acevedo
G
21
C. Huerta
M
C. Huerta
M
4
E. Álvarez
58'
M
E. Álvarez
58'
M
22
G. Martínez
22'
F
G. Martínez
22'
F
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
I. Reyes
D
I. Reyes
D
24
Luis Chávez
M
Luis Chávez
M
20
M. Chávez
D
M. Chávez
D
17
O. Pineda
M
O. Pineda
M
18
O. Vargas
M
O. Vargas
M
11
S. Giménez
38'
F
S. Giménez
38'
F
1
J. Pickford
G
J. Pickford
G
3
N. O'Reilly
74'
D
N. O'Reilly
74'
D
6
M. Guéhi
D
M. Guéhi
D
2
E. Konsa
D
E. Konsa
D
26
J. Quansah
54'
D
J. Quansah
54'
D
8
E. Anderson
75'
M
E. Anderson
75'
M
4
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
18
A. Gordon
M
A. Gordon
M
10
J. Bellingham
2 ⚽
M
J. Bellingham
2 ⚽
M
7
B. Saka
1 👟
57'
M
B. Saka
1 👟
57'
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
15
D. Burn
28'
D
D. Burn
28'
D
13
D. Henderson
G
D. Henderson
G
25
D. Spence
29'
D
D. Spence
29'
D
21
E. Eze
M
E. Eze
M
22
I. Toney
F
I. Toney
F
14
J. Henderson
M
J. Henderson
M
5
John Stones
46'
D
John Stones
46'
D
23
J. Trafford
G
J. Trafford
G
16
K. Mainoo
M
K. Mainoo
M
11
M. Rashford
F
M. Rashford
F
17
M. Rogers
13'
M
M. Rogers
13'
M
20
N. Madueke
F
N. Madueke
F
19
O. Watkins
F
O. Watkins
F
24
R. James
D
R. James
D
12
T. Chalobah
D
T. Chalobah
D
Best on the pitch
J. Bellingham
M · England
9.00
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
J. Quiñones
F · Mexico
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 29 pass
E. Anderson
M · England
7.30
· 25 pass
Álvaro Fidalgo
M · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 28 pass
E. Álvarez
M · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 28 pass
H. Kane
F · England
7.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 9 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rangel | G | 103 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 103 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 103 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 61 | 58% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Montes | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 37% | — | — | — |
| J. Sánchez | D | 79 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 24% | 4 | 1 | — |
| L. Romo | M | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| É. Lira | M | 103 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 71 | 69% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Mora | M | 61 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | F | 81 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 29 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Jiménez | F | 103 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 6 | 15 | 8% | — | — | — |
| R. Alvarado | F | 103 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 24 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 28% | — | — | — |
| B. Gutiérrez | M | 42 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Álvarez | M | 58 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Martínez | F | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Giménez | F | 38 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
England — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pickford | G | 103 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 19% | — | — | — |
| N. O'Reilly | D | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 103 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 31% | — | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 103 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| J. Quansah | D | 54 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 2 | — | 1 |
| E. Anderson | M | 75 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 5 | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 103 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Gordon | M | 103 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 103 | 9.00 | 2 | — | 3 | 24 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Saka | M | 57 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 6 | 6% | 3 | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Burn | D | 28 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| D. Spence | D | 29 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| John Stones | D | 46 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs England?
The final score was Mexico 2–3 England.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs England?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Mexico win, 27% to a draw, and 25% to an England win.