World Cup
· Round of 16
July 06, 2026 03:00
J. Quinones
42'
R. Jimenez
69'
(pen.)
36'
(ast. B. Saka)
J. Bellingham
38'
(ast. H. Kane)
J. Bellingham
(pen.)
60'
H. Kane
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 47% win probability (draw 27%, England 25%). The final result was Mexico 2–3 England.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
5
1.87
Actual xG
1.55
2
Saves
3
67%
Possession
33%
12
Corners
2
16
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
1'
D. Rice
36'
ast. B. Saka ·
J. Bellingham⚽
38'
ast. H. Kane ·
J. Bellingham⚽
⚽J. Quinones
42'
C. Montes
/ E. Alvarez
46'
54'
J. Quansah
57'
J. Stones
/
B. Saka
60'
(pen.)
H. Kane⚽
G. Mora
/ S. Gimenez
61'
L. Romo
/ B. Gutierrez
61'
68'
M. Guehi
⚽R. Jimenez
(pen.)
69'
J. Sanchez
71'
72'
N. O'Reilly
74'
D. Spence
/
N. O'Reilly
75'
D. Burn
/
E. Anderson
J. Sanchez
/ A. Fidalgo
79'
J. Quinones
/ G. Martinez
81'
J. Vasquez
90'+8
90'+8
J. Henderson
90'
M. Rogers
/
H. Kane
Pre-match prediction
47.03%
Mexico
27.16%
X
25.8%
England ←
we assigned to the actual result (England)
25.8%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.84
1.87
+0.03
1.23
1.55
+0.32
Mexico dominated by xG (1.87 vs 1.55).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
Raúl Rangel
G
Raúl Rangel
G
23
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
5
J. Vásquez
D
J. Vásquez
D
3
C. Montes
45'
D
C. Montes
45'
D
2
Jorge Sánchez
79'
D
Jorge Sánchez
79'
D
7
Luis Romo
61'
M
Luis Romo
61'
M
6
Erik Lira
M
Erik Lira
M
19
Gilberto Mora
61'
M
Gilberto Mora
61'
M
16
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
81'
F
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
81'
F
9
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
F
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
F
25
R. Alvarado
F
R. Alvarado
F
Bench
10
Alexis Vega
F
Alexis Vega
F
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
24'
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
24'
M
14
Armando González
F
Armando González
F
26
Brian Gutiérrez
42'
M
Brian Gutiérrez
42'
M
12
Carlos Acevedo
G
Carlos Acevedo
G
21
César Huerta
M
César Huerta
M
4
E. Álvarez
58'
M
E. Álvarez
58'
M
22
Guillermo Martínez
22'
F
Guillermo Martínez
22'
F
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
Israel Reyes
D
Israel Reyes
D
24
Luis Chávez
M
Luis Chávez
M
20
Mateo Chávez
D
Mateo Chávez
D
18
Obed Vargas
M
Obed Vargas
M
17
Orbelín Pineda
M
Orbelín Pineda
M
11
S. Giménez
38'
F
S. Giménez
38'
F
1
Jordan Pickford
G
Jordan Pickford
G
3
Nico O'Reilly
74'
D
Nico O'Reilly
74'
D
6
M. Guéhi
D
M. Guéhi
D
2
Ezri Konsa
D
Ezri Konsa
D
26
J. Quansah
54'
D
J. Quansah
54'
D
8
Elliot Anderson
75'
M
Elliot Anderson
75'
M
4
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
18
A. Gordon
M
A. Gordon
M
10
J. Bellingham
2 ⚽
M
J. Bellingham
2 ⚽
M
7
B. Saka
1 👟
57'
M
B. Saka
1 👟
57'
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
15
Dan Burn
28'
D
Dan Burn
28'
D
13
Dean Henderson
G
Dean Henderson
G
25
Djed Spence
29'
D
Djed Spence
29'
D
21
E. Eze
M
E. Eze
M
22
I. Toney
F
I. Toney
F
23
James Trafford
G
James Trafford
G
5
John Stones
46'
D
John Stones
46'
D
14
Jordan Henderson
M
Jordan Henderson
M
16
Kobbie Mainoo
M
Kobbie Mainoo
M
17
Morgan Rogers
13'
M
Morgan Rogers
13'
M
11
M. Rashford
F
M. Rashford
F
20
N. Madueke
F
N. Madueke
F
19
Ollie Watkins
F
Ollie Watkins
F
24
Reece James
D
Reece James
D
12
Trevoh Chalobah
D
Trevoh Chalobah
D
Best on the pitch
J. Bellingham
M · England
9.00
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
J. Quiñones
F · Mexico
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 29 pass
Elliot Anderson
M · England
7.30
· 25 pass
Álvaro Fidalgo
M · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 28 pass
E. Álvarez
M · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 28 pass
H. Kane
F · England
7.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 9 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 103 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 103 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 103 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 61 | 58% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Montes | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Sánchez | D | 79 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 24% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Luis Romo | M | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Erik Lira | M | 103 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 71 | 69% | 2 | — | — |
| Gilberto Mora | M | 61 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | F | 81 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 29 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Jiménez | F | 103 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 6 | 15 | 8% | — | — | — |
| R. Alvarado | F | 103 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 24 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Brian Gutiérrez | M | 42 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Álvarez | M | 58 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Guillermo Martínez | F | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Giménez | F | 38 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
England — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Pickford | G | 103 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 103 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 103 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| J. Quansah | D | 54 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 2 | — | 1 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 75 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 5 | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 103 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Gordon | M | 103 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 103 | 9.00 | 2 | — | 3 | 24 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Saka | M | 57 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 6 | 6% | 3 | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Dan Burn | D | 28 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Djed Spence | D | 29 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| John Stones | D | 46 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs England?
The final score was Mexico 2–3 England.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs England?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Mexico win, 27% to a draw, and 25% to an England win.