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World Cup · Group Stage - 1 June 11, 2026 21:00 Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Mexico
#1 · 9 pts
2 – 0
Final score
South Africa
#2 · 4 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Mexico
J. Quinones (ast. E. Lira) 9'
R. Jimenez (ast. R. Alvarado) 67'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 55% win probability (draw 25%, South Africa 19%). The final result was Mexico 2–0 South Africa.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
3
4
Shots on target
2
1.41
Actual xG
0.07
2
Saves
2
61%
Possession
39%
3
Corners
1
10
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
⚽J. Quinones · ast. E. Lira
9'
17'
T. Mokoena
B. Gutierrez
23'
49'
Y. Sithole
56'
T. Mbatha / L. Foster ↕
61'
T. Zwane / J. Adams ↕
↕ B. Gutierrez / L. Chavez
66'
↕ A. Fidalgo / G. Mora
66'
⚽R. Jimenez · ast. R. Alvarado
67'
74'
N. Sibisi
↕ E. Lira / E. Alvarez
76'
↕ R. Jimenez / A. Gonzalez
76'
77'
E. Makgopa / I. Rayners ↕
77'
O. Appollis / A. Modiba ↕
↕ J. Quinones / A. Vega
79'
84'
T. Zwane
C. Montes
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
55.59%
Mexico ←
25.25%
X
19.16%
South
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Mexico) 55.59% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Mexico
2.18
1.41
-0.76
South
0.62
0.07
-0.55
Mexico dominated by xG (1.41 vs 0.07). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Mexico Mexico 3 9
2 South Africa South Africa 3 4
3 South Korea South Korea 3 3
4 Czechia Czechia 3 1
Lineups
Mexico Mexico 4-1-4-1
1 Raúl Rangel Raúl Rangel G 7.20
23 J. Gallardo J. Gallardo D 6.90
5 Johan Vásquez Johan Vásquez D 6.90
3 C. Montes C. Montes D 6.90
15 Israel Reyes Israel Reyes D 7.30
6 Erik Lira Erik Lira 1 👟 76' M 7.20
16 Julián Quiñones Julián Quiñones 1 ⚽ 79' M 8.30
8 Álvaro Fidalgo Álvaro Fidalgo 66' M 7.20
26 Brian Gutiérrez Brian Gutiérrez 66' M 7.00
25 R. Alvarado R. Alvarado 1 👟 M 8.20
9 Raúl Jiménez Raúl Jiménez 1 ⚽ 76' F 7.90
Bench
14 A. González A. González 14' F 6.20
10 A. Vega A. Vega 11' F 6.50
12 Carlos Acevedo Carlos Acevedo G
21 César Huerta César Huerta M
4 E. Álvarez E. Álvarez 14' M 7.00
19 Gilberto Mora Gilberto Mora 24' M 6.30
22 G. Martínez G. Martínez F
13 Guillermo Ochoa Guillermo Ochoa G
2 Jorge Sánchez Jorge Sánchez D
24 Luis Chávez Luis Chávez 24' M 6.90
7 Luis Romo Luis Romo M
20 Mateo Chávez Mateo Chávez D
18 Obed Vargas Obed Vargas M
17 Orbelín Pineda Orbelín Pineda M
11 Santiago Giménez Santiago Giménez F
South Africa South Africa 5-3-2
1 Ronwen Williams Ronwen Williams G 6.60
6 A. Modiba A. Modiba 77' D 5.90
14 Mbekezeli Mbokazi Mbekezeli Mbokazi D 6.30
21 Ime Okon Ime Okon D 6.20
19 Nkosinathi Sibisi Nkosinathi Sibisi D 6.00
20 Khuliso Mudau Khuliso Mudau D 6.30
23 Jayden Adams Jayden Adams 61' M 6.70
13 S. Sithole S. Sithole 49' M 5.00
4 T. Mokoena T. Mokoena M 6.30
9 Lyle Foster Lyle Foster 56' F 5.90
15 Iqraam Rayners Iqraam Rayners 77' F 6.30
Bench
26 Bradley Cross Bradley Cross D
17 Evidence Makgopa Evidence Makgopa 13' F 6.90
25 Kamogelo Sebelebele Kamogelo Sebelebele M
3 Khulumani Ndamane Khulumani Ndamane D
24 Olwethu Makhanya Olwethu Makhanya D
7 Oswin Appollis Oswin Appollis 13' F 6.70
10 Relebohile Mofokeng Relebohile Mofokeng F
22 Ricardo Goss Ricardo Goss G
18 Samukelo Kabini Samukelo Kabini D
16 Sipho Chaine Sipho Chaine G
12 Thapelo Maseko Thapelo Maseko F
2 Tholo Thabang Matuludi Tholo Thabang Matuludi D
5 T. Mbatha T. Mbatha 34' M 6.30
8 Tshepang Moremi Tshepang Moremi F
11 T. Zwane T. Zwane 23' M 5.20
Best on the pitch
Julián Quiñones
Julián Quiñones
M · Mexico
8.30
1 ⚽
4 shots · 33 pass
R. Alvarado
R. Alvarado
M · Mexico
8.20
1 👟
· 35 pass
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez
F · Mexico
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 19 pass
Israel Reyes
Israel Reyes
D · Mexico
7.30
1 shots · 42 pass
Álvaro Fidalgo
Álvaro Fidalgo
M · Mexico
7.20
· 34 pass
Erik Lira
Erik Lira
M · Mexico
7.20
1 👟
· 45 pass
Mexico Mexico — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Raúl Rangel G 90 7.20 — — — 30 26% — — —
J. Gallardo D 90 6.90 — — 1 45 34% — — —
Johan Vásquez D 90 6.90 — — — 81 75% 1 — —
C. Montes D 90 6.90 — — — 65 60% — — 1
Israel Reyes D 90 7.30 — — 1 42 38% — — —
Erik Lira M 76 7.20 — 1 — 45 42% 1 — —
Julián Quiñones M 79 8.30 1 — 4 33 28% — — —
Álvaro Fidalgo M 66 7.20 — — — 34 30% 1 — —
Brian Gutiérrez M 66 7.00 — — 2 23 20% — 1 —
R. Alvarado M 90 8.20 — 1 — 35 32% 4 — —
Raúl Jiménez F 76 7.90 1 — 3 19 15% 1 — —
A. González F 14 6.20 — — — 1 1% — — —
A. Vega F 11 6.50 — — — 10 10% — — —
E. Álvarez M 14 7.00 — — — 15 14% 1 — —
Gilberto Mora M 24 6.30 — — — 14 14% — — —
Luis Chávez M 24 6.90 — — — 28 28% 1 — —
South Africa South Africa — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Ronwen Williams G 90 6.60 — — — 40 28% — — —
A. Modiba D 77 5.90 — — 1 15 12% 3 — —
Mbekezeli Mbokazi D 90 6.30 — — 1 30 23% 2 — —
Ime Okon D 90 6.20 — — — 50 45% 2 — —
Nkosinathi Sibisi D 90 6.00 — — — 50 41% — 1 —
Khuliso Mudau D 90 6.30 — — — 29 25% 4 — —
Jayden Adams M 61 6.70 — — — 20 16% — — —
S. Sithole M 49 5.00 — — — 19 17% — — 1
T. Mokoena M 90 6.30 — — — 42 39% — 1 —
Lyle Foster F 56 5.90 — — 1 5 1% — — —
Iqraam Rayners F 77 6.30 — — — 10 9% — — —
Evidence Makgopa F 13 6.90 — — — 5 2% — — —
Oswin Appollis F 13 6.70 — — — 6 5% 1 — —
T. Mbatha M 34 6.30 — — — 7 4% 2 — —
T. Zwane M 23 5.20 — — — 7 5% — — 1
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs South Africa?
The final score was Mexico 2–0 South Africa.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs South Africa?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Mexico win, 25% to a draw, and 19% to an South Africa win.