✓Model correct — prediction Mexico
J. Quinones
(ast. E. Lira)
9'
R. Jimenez
(ast. R. Alvarado)
67'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 55% win probability (draw 25%, South Africa 19%). The final result was Mexico 2–0 South Africa.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
3
4
Shots on target
2
1.41
Actual xG
0.07
2
Saves
2
61%
Possession
39%
3
Corners
1
10
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
⚽J. Quinones
· ast. E. Lira
9'
17'
T. Mokoena
B. Gutierrez
23'
49'
Y. Sithole
56'
T. Mbatha
/
L. Foster
61'
T. Zwane
/
J. Adams
B. Gutierrez
/ L. Chavez
66'
A. Fidalgo
/ G. Mora
66'
⚽R. Jimenez
· ast. R. Alvarado
67'
74'
N. Sibisi
E. Lira
/ E. Alvarez
76'
R. Jimenez
/ A. Gonzalez
76'
77'
E. Makgopa
/
I. Rayners
77'
O. Appollis
/
A. Modiba
J. Quinones
/ A. Vega
79'
84'
T. Zwane
C. Montes
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
55.59%
Mexico ←
25.25%
X
19.16%
South
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Mexico)
55.59%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.18
1.41
-0.76
0.62
0.07
-0.55
Mexico dominated by xG (1.41 vs 0.07).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
J. Rangel
G
J. Rangel
G
23
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
5
Johan Vásquez
D
Johan Vásquez
D
3
C. Montes
D
C. Montes
D
15
I. Reyes
D
I. Reyes
D
6
É. Lira
1 👟
76'
M
É. Lira
1 👟
76'
M
16
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
79'
M
J. Quiñones
1 ⚽
79'
M
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
66'
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
66'
M
26
B. Gutiérrez
66'
M
B. Gutiérrez
66'
M
25
R. Alvarado
1 👟
M
R. Alvarado
1 👟
M
9
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
76'
F
R. Jiménez
1 ⚽
76'
F
Bench
14
A. González
14'
F
A. González
14'
F
10
A. Vega
11'
F
A. Vega
11'
F
12
C. Acevedo
G
C. Acevedo
G
21
César Huerta
M
4
E. Álvarez
14'
M
E. Álvarez
14'
M
19
G. Mora
24'
M
G. Mora
24'
M
22
Guillermo Martínez
F
Guillermo Martínez
F
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
2
J. Sánchez
D
J. Sánchez
D
24
L. Chávez
24'
M
L. Chávez
24'
M
7
L. Romo
M
L. Romo
M
20
M. Chávez
D
M. Chávez
D
17
O. Pineda
M
O. Pineda
M
18
O. Vargas
M
O. Vargas
M
11
S. Giménez
F
S. Giménez
F
1
Ronwen Williams
G
Ronwen Williams
G
6
A. Modiba
77'
D
A. Modiba
77'
D
14
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
D
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
D
21
I. Okon
D
I. Okon
D
19
Nkosinathi Sibisi
D
Nkosinathi Sibisi
D
20
K. Mudau
D
K. Mudau
D
23
J. Adams
61'
M
J. Adams
61'
M
13
S. Sithole
49'
M
4
T. Mokoena
M
T. Mokoena
M
9
L. Foster
56'
F
L. Foster
56'
F
15
I. Rayners
77'
F
I. Rayners
77'
F
Bench
26
Bradley Cross
D
Bradley Cross
D
17
E. Makgopa
13'
F
E. Makgopa
13'
F
25
Kamogelo Sebelebele
M
Kamogelo Sebelebele
M
3
K. Ndamane
D
K. Ndamane
D
7
O. Appollis
13'
F
O. Appollis
13'
F
24
O. Makhanya
D
O. Makhanya
D
22
Ricardo Goss
G
Ricardo Goss
G
10
R. Mofokeng
F
R. Mofokeng
F
16
Sipho Chaine
G
Sipho Chaine
G
18
S. Kabini
D
S. Kabini
D
12
T. Maseko
F
T. Maseko
F
2
T. Matuludi
D
T. Matuludi
D
5
T. Mbatha
34'
M
T. Mbatha
34'
M
8
T. Moremi
F
T. Moremi
F
11
T. Zwane
23'
M
T. Zwane
23'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Quiñones
M · Mexico
8.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 33 pass
R. Alvarado
M · Mexico
8.20
1 👟
· 35 pass
R. Jiménez
F · Mexico
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 19 pass
I. Reyes
D · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 42 pass
Álvaro Fidalgo
M · Mexico
7.20
· 34 pass
É. Lira
M · Mexico
7.20
1 👟
· 45 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rangel | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 81 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Montes | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 65 | 60% | — | — | 1 |
| I. Reyes | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 38% | — | — | — |
| É. Lira | M | 76 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 45 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | M | 79 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 33 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 66 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Gutiérrez | M | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Alvarado | M | 90 | 8.20 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| R. Jiménez | F | 76 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| A. González | F | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| A. Vega | F | 11 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| E. Álvarez | M | 14 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Mora | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | — | — | — |
| L. Chávez | M | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
South Africa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronwen Williams | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 28% | — | — | — |
| A. Modiba | D | 77 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Okon | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Nkosinathi Sibisi | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 50 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Mudau | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Adams | M | 61 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| S. Sithole | M | 49 | 5.00 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | 1 |
| T. Mokoena | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 39% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Foster | F | 56 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1% | — | — | — |
| I. Rayners | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| E. Makgopa | F | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| O. Appollis | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Mbatha | M | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Zwane | M | 23 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | 1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs South Africa?
The final score was Mexico 2–0 South Africa.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs South Africa?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Mexico win, 25% to a draw, and 19% to an South Africa win.