L. Romo
50'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 46% win probability (draw 27%, South Korea 25%). The final result was Mexico 1–0 South Korea.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
4
Shots on target
2
0.48
Actual xG
0.69
2
Saves
3
42%
Possession
58%
0
Corners
2
14
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
4'
Lee Kang-In
⚽L. Romo
50'
57'
Hwang Hee-Chan
/
Lee Jae-Sung
57'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
/
Son Heung-Min
58'
Paik Seung-Ho
B. Gutierrez
/ O. Pineda
71'
L. Romo
/ O. Vargas
71'
71'
Yang Hyun-Jun
/
Seol Young-Woo
71'
Eom Ji-Sung
/
Kim Moon-Hwan
77'
Cho Gue-Sung
/
Paik Seung-Ho
R. Jimenez
/ S. Gimenez
80'
R. Alvarado
/ I. Reyes
80'
J. Quinones
/ C. S. Huerta Valera
84'
Pre-match prediction
46.9%
Mexico ←
27.72%
X
25.38%
South
we assigned to the actual result (Mexico)
46.9%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.91
0.48
-1.43
1.06
0.69
-0.37
xG dominance was balanced (0.48 – 0.69).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
J. Rangel
G
J. Rangel
G
23
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
5
J. Vásquez
D
J. Vásquez
D
4
E. Álvarez
D
E. Álvarez
D
2
J. Sánchez
D
J. Sánchez
D
7
L. Romo
1 ⚽
71'
M
L. Romo
1 ⚽
71'
M
6
É. Lira
M
É. Lira
M
26
B. Gutiérrez
71'
M
B. Gutiérrez
71'
M
16
J. Quiñones
84'
F
J. Quiñones
84'
F
9
R. Jiménez
80'
F
R. Jiménez
80'
F
25
R. Alvarado
80'
F
R. Alvarado
80'
F
Bench
14
A. González
F
A. González
F
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
10
A. Vega
F
A. Vega
F
12
C. Acevedo
G
C. Acevedo
G
21
C. Huerta
13'
M
C. Huerta
13'
M
22
G. Martínez
F
G. Martínez
F
19
G. Mora
M
G. Mora
M
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
I. Reyes
10'
D
I. Reyes
10'
D
24
Luis Chávez
M
Luis Chávez
M
20
M. Chávez
D
M. Chávez
D
17
O. Pineda
19'
M
O. Pineda
19'
M
18
O. Vargas
19'
M
O. Vargas
19'
M
11
S. Giménez
10'
F
S. Giménez
10'
F
1
Kim Seung-Gyu
G
Kim Seung-Gyu
G
3
Lee Gi-Hyuk
D
Lee Gi-Hyuk
D
4
Kim Min-Jae
D
Kim Min-Jae
D
2
Han-Beom Lee
D
Han-Beom Lee
D
22
Seol Young-Woo
71'
M
Seol Young-Woo
71'
M
8
Seung Ho Paik
77'
M
Seung Ho Paik
77'
M
6
Hwang In-Beom
M
Hwang In-Beom
M
15
Kim Moon-Hwan
71'
M
Kim Moon-Hwan
71'
M
10
Lee Jae-Sung
57'
F
Lee Jae-Sung
57'
F
19
Lee Kang-In
F
Lee Kang-In
F
7
Son Heung-Min
57'
F
Son Heung-Min
57'
F
Bench
17
Bae Jun-Ho
M
Bae Jun-Ho
M
9
Cho Gue-Sung
13'
F
Cho Gue-Sung
13'
F
14
Cho Wi-Je
D
Cho Wi-Je
D
25
Eom Ji-Sung
19'
F
Eom Ji-Sung
19'
F
11
Hwang Hee-Chan
33'
F
Hwang Hee-Chan
33'
F
18
Hyeon-gyu Oh
33'
F
Hyeon-gyu Oh
33'
F
23
J. Castrop
M
J. Castrop
M
16
Jin-seob Park
M
Jin-seob Park
M
21
Jo Hyeon-Woo
G
Jo Hyeon-Woo
G
24
Kim Jin-Gyu
M
Kim Jin-Gyu
M
5
Kim Tae-Hyeon
D
Kim Tae-Hyeon
D
26
Lee Dong-Gyeong
M
Lee Dong-Gyeong
M
13
Lee Tae-Seok
D
Lee Tae-Seok
D
12
Song Bum-Keun
G
Song Bum-Keun
G
20
Yang Hyun-Jun
19'
F
Yang Hyun-Jun
19'
F
Best on the pitch
L. Romo
M · Mexico
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 37 pass
J. Rangel
G · Mexico
7.30
· 31 pass
B. Gutiérrez
M · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 17 pass
Eom Ji-Sung
F · South
7.30
· 6 pass
E. Álvarez
D · Mexico
7.20
· 78 pass
J. Gallardo
D · Mexico
7.00
1 shots
· 40 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rangel | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 19% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | — | — | — |
| E. Álvarez | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 78 | 71% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
| L. Romo | M | 71 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| É. Lira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Gutiérrez | M | 71 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | F | 84 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Jiménez | F | 80 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 14% | — | — | — |
| R. Alvarado | F | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Huerta | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Reyes | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Pineda | M | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| O. Vargas | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| S. Giménez | F | 10 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
South Korea — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Seung-Gyu | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 37 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Lee Gi-Hyuk | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 87 | 74% | 2 | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 97 | 91% | 2 | — | — |
| Han-Beom Lee | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Seol Young-Woo | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Seung Ho Paik | M | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hwang In-Beom | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 60 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Kim Moon-Hwan | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Lee Jae-Sung | F | 57 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| Lee Kang-In | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 49% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Son Heung-Min | F | 57 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Cho Gue-Sung | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eom Ji-Sung | F | 19 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Hwang Hee-Chan | F | 33 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Hyeon-gyu Oh | F | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Yang Hyun-Jun | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs South Korea?
The final score was Mexico 1–0 South Korea.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs South Korea?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Mexico win, 27% to a draw, and 25% to an South Korea win.