L. Romo
50'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 46% win probability (draw 27%, South Korea 25%). The final result was Mexico 1–0 South Korea.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
4
Shots on target
2
0.48
Actual xG
0.69
2
Saves
3
42%
Possession
58%
0
Corners
2
14
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
4'
Lee Kang-In
⚽L. Romo
50'
57'
Hwang Hee-Chan
/
Lee Jae-Sung
57'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
/
Son Heung-Min
58'
Paik Seung-Ho
B. Gutierrez
/ O. Pineda
71'
L. Romo
/ O. Vargas
71'
71'
Yang Hyun-Jun
/
Seol Young-Woo
71'
Eom Ji-Sung
/
Kim Moon-Hwan
77'
Cho Gue-Sung
/
Paik Seung-Ho
R. Jimenez
/ S. Gimenez
80'
R. Alvarado
/ I. Reyes
80'
J. Quinones
/ C. S. Huerta Valera
84'
Pre-match prediction
46.9%
Mexico ←
27.72%
X
25.38%
South
we assigned to the actual result (Mexico)
46.9%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.91
0.48
-1.43
1.06
0.69
-0.37
xG dominance was balanced (0.48 – 0.69).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
J. Rangel
G
J. Rangel
G
23
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
5
Johan Vásquez
D
Johan Vásquez
D
4
E. Álvarez
D
E. Álvarez
D
2
J. Sánchez
D
J. Sánchez
D
7
L. Romo
1 ⚽
71'
M
L. Romo
1 ⚽
71'
M
6
É. Lira
M
É. Lira
M
26
B. Gutiérrez
71'
M
B. Gutiérrez
71'
M
16
J. Quiñones
84'
F
J. Quiñones
84'
F
9
R. Jiménez
80'
F
R. Jiménez
80'
F
25
R. Alvarado
80'
F
R. Alvarado
80'
F
Bench
14
A. González
F
A. González
F
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
10
A. Vega
F
A. Vega
F
12
C. Acevedo
G
C. Acevedo
G
21
César Huerta
13'
M
19
G. Mora
M
G. Mora
M
22
Guillermo Martínez
F
Guillermo Martínez
F
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
I. Reyes
10'
D
I. Reyes
10'
D
24
L. Chávez
M
L. Chávez
M
20
M. Chávez
D
M. Chávez
D
17
O. Pineda
19'
M
O. Pineda
19'
M
18
O. Vargas
19'
M
O. Vargas
19'
M
11
S. Giménez
10'
F
S. Giménez
10'
F
1
Kim Seung-Gyu
G
Kim Seung-Gyu
G
3
Lee Gi-Hyuk
D
Lee Gi-Hyuk
D
4
Kim Min-Jae
D
Kim Min-Jae
D
2
Lee Han-Beom
D
Lee Han-Beom
D
22
Seol Young-Woo
71'
M
Seol Young-Woo
71'
M
8
Paik Seung-Ho
77'
M
Paik Seung-Ho
77'
M
6
Hwang In-Beom
M
Hwang In-Beom
M
15
Kim Moon-Hwan
71'
M
Kim Moon-Hwan
71'
M
10
Lee Jae-Sung
57'
F
Lee Jae-Sung
57'
F
19
Lee Kang-In
F
Lee Kang-In
F
7
Son Heung-Min
57'
F
Son Heung-Min
57'
F
Bench
17
Bae Jun-Ho
M
Bae Jun-Ho
M
9
Cho Gue-Sung
13'
F
Cho Gue-Sung
13'
F
14
Cho Wi-Je
D
Cho Wi-Je
D
25
Eom Ji-Sung
19'
F
Eom Ji-Sung
19'
F
11
Hwang Hee-Chan
33'
F
Hwang Hee-Chan
33'
F
23
J. Castrop
M
J. Castrop
M
21
Jo Hyeon-Woo
G
Jo Hyeon-Woo
G
24
Kim Jin-Gyu
M
Kim Jin-Gyu
M
5
Kim Tae-Hyeon
D
Kim Tae-Hyeon
D
26
Lee Dong-Gyeong
M
Lee Dong-Gyeong
M
13
Lee Tae-Seok
D
Lee Tae-Seok
D
18
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
33'
F
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
33'
F
16
Park Jin-Seop
M
Park Jin-Seop
M
12
Song Bum-Keun
G
Song Bum-Keun
G
20
Yang Hyun-Jun
19'
F
Yang Hyun-Jun
19'
F
Best on the pitch
L. Romo
M · Mexico
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 37 pass
J. Rangel
G · Mexico
7.30
· 31 pass
B. Gutiérrez
M · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 17 pass
Eom Ji-Sung
F · South
7.30
· 6 pass
E. Álvarez
D · Mexico
7.20
· 78 pass
J. Gallardo
D · Mexico
7.00
1 shots
· 40 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rangel | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 19% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | — | — | — |
| E. Álvarez | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 78 | 71% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
| L. Romo | M | 71 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| É. Lira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Gutiérrez | M | 71 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | F | 84 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Jiménez | F | 80 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 14% | — | — | — |
| R. Alvarado | F | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| César Huerta | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Reyes | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Pineda | M | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| O. Vargas | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| S. Giménez | F | 10 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
South Korea — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Seung-Gyu | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 37 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Lee Gi-Hyuk | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 87 | 74% | 2 | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 97 | 91% | 2 | — | — |
| Lee Han-Beom | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Seol Young-Woo | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Paik Seung-Ho | M | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hwang In-Beom | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 60 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Kim Moon-Hwan | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Lee Jae-Sung | F | 57 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| Lee Kang-In | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 49% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Son Heung-Min | F | 57 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Cho Gue-Sung | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eom Ji-Sung | F | 19 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Hwang Hee-Chan | F | 33 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Oh Hyeon-Gyu | F | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Yang Hyun-Jun | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs South Korea?
The final score was Mexico 1–0 South Korea.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs South Korea?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Mexico win, 27% to a draw, and 25% to an South Korea win.