L. Romo
50'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mexico a 46% win probability (draw 27%, South Korea 25%). The final result was Mexico 1–0 South Korea.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
4
Shots on target
2
0.48
Actual xG
0.69
2
Saves
3
42%
Possession
58%
0
Corners
2
14
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
4'
Lee Kang-In
⚽L. Romo
50'
57'
Hwang Hee-Chan
/
Lee Jae-Sung
57'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
/
Son Heung-Min
58'
Paik Seung-Ho
B. Gutierrez
/ O. Pineda
71'
L. Romo
/ O. Vargas
71'
71'
Yang Hyun-Jun
/
Seol Young-Woo
71'
Eom Ji-Sung
/
Kim Moon-Hwan
77'
Cho Gue-Sung
/
Paik Seung-Ho
R. Jimenez
/ S. Gimenez
80'
R. Alvarado
/ I. Reyes
80'
J. Quinones
/ C. S. Huerta Valera
84'
Pre-match prediction
46.9%
Mexico ←
27.72%
X
25.38%
South
we assigned to the actual result (Mexico)
46.9%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.91
0.48
-1.43
1.06
0.69
-0.37
xG dominance was balanced (0.48 – 0.69).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Raúl Rangel
G
Raúl Rangel
G
23
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
5
J. Vásquez
D
J. Vásquez
D
4
E. Álvarez
D
E. Álvarez
D
2
Jorge Sánchez
D
Jorge Sánchez
D
7
Luis Romo
1 ⚽
71'
M
Luis Romo
1 ⚽
71'
M
6
Erik Lira
M
Erik Lira
M
26
Brian Gutiérrez
71'
M
Brian Gutiérrez
71'
M
16
J. Quiñones
84'
F
J. Quiñones
84'
F
9
R. Jiménez
80'
F
R. Jiménez
80'
F
25
R. Alvarado
80'
F
R. Alvarado
80'
F
Bench
10
Alexis Vega
F
Alexis Vega
F
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
14
Armando González
F
Armando González
F
12
Carlos Acevedo
G
Carlos Acevedo
G
21
César Huerta
13'
M
César Huerta
13'
M
19
Gilberto Mora
M
Gilberto Mora
M
22
Guillermo Martínez
F
Guillermo Martínez
F
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
Israel Reyes
10'
D
Israel Reyes
10'
D
24
Luis Chávez
M
Luis Chávez
M
20
Mateo Chávez
D
Mateo Chávez
D
18
Obed Vargas
19'
M
Obed Vargas
19'
M
17
Orbelín Pineda
19'
M
Orbelín Pineda
19'
M
11
S. Giménez
10'
F
S. Giménez
10'
F
1
Kim Seung-gyu
G
Kim Seung-gyu
G
3
Gi-Hyuk Lee
D
4
Kim Min-Jae
D
Kim Min-Jae
D
2
Han-Beom Lee
D
22
Young-woo Seol
71'
M
Young-woo Seol
71'
M
8
Seung Ho Paik
77'
M
Seung Ho Paik
77'
M
6
Hwang In-Beom
M
Hwang In-Beom
M
15
Kim Moon-Hwan
71'
M
Kim Moon-Hwan
71'
M
10
Jae-sung Lee
57'
F
Jae-sung Lee
57'
F
19
Lee Kang-In
F
Lee Kang-In
F
7
Son Heung-Min
57'
F
Son Heung-Min
57'
F
Bench
14
Cho Wi-Je
D
Cho Wi-Je
D
9
Gue-sung Cho
13'
F
Gue-sung Cho
13'
F
11
Hwang Hee-chan
33'
F
Hwang Hee-chan
33'
F
21
Hyeon-woo Jo
G
23
J. Castrop
M
J. Castrop
M
24
Jin-gyu Kim
M
Jin-gyu Kim
M
16
Jin-seob Park
M
Jin-seob Park
M
25
Ji-sung Eom
19'
F
Ji-sung Eom
19'
F
17
Jun-Ho Bae
M
Jun-Ho Bae
M
5
Kim Tae-hyeon
D
Kim Tae-hyeon
D
26
Lee Dong-Gyeong
M
Lee Dong-Gyeong
M
13
Lee Tae-seok
D
Lee Tae-seok
D
18
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
33'
F
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
33'
F
12
Song Bum-keun
G
Song Bum-keun
G
20
Yang Hyun-Jun
19'
F
Yang Hyun-Jun
19'
F
Best on the pitch
Luis Romo
M · Mexico
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 37 pass
Ji-sung Eom
F · South
7.30
· 6 pass
Brian Gutiérrez
M · Mexico
7.30
1 shots
· 17 pass
Raúl Rangel
G · Mexico
7.30
· 31 pass
E. Álvarez
D · Mexico
7.20
· 78 pass
J. Vásquez
D · Mexico
7.00
· 54 pass
Mexico — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 19% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | — | — | — |
| E. Álvarez | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 78 | 71% | 2 | — | — |
| Jorge Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Luis Romo | M | 71 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| Erik Lira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Brian Gutiérrez | M | 71 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quiñones | F | 84 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Jiménez | F | 80 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 14% | — | — | — |
| R. Alvarado | F | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| César Huerta | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Israel Reyes | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Obed Vargas | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Orbelín Pineda | M | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| S. Giménez | F | 10 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
South Korea — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Seung-gyu | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 37 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Gi-Hyuk Lee | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 87 | 74% | 2 | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 97 | 91% | 2 | — | — |
| Han-Beom Lee | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Young-woo Seol | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Seung Ho Paik | M | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hwang In-Beom | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 60 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Kim Moon-Hwan | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jae-sung Lee | F | 57 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| Lee Kang-In | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 49% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Son Heung-Min | F | 57 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Gue-sung Cho | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hwang Hee-chan | F | 33 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Ji-sung Eom | F | 19 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Oh Hyeon-Gyu | F | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Yang Hyun-Jun | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mexico vs South Korea?
The final score was Mexico 1–0 South Korea.
What did the model predict before Mexico vs South Korea?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Mexico win, 27% to a draw, and 25% to an South Korea win.