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Championship · Regular Season - 11 October 17, 2026 13:30 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
#1 · 25 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Cardiff
#16 · 14 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Middlesbrough, result Draw
Tommy Conway (ast. Callum Brittain) 58'
will lankshear (ast. Amario Cozier-Duberry) 61'
22' (ast. Ollie·Tanner) Jack Moylan
45'+1 (ast. Jack Moylan) Ollie·Tanner
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 51% win probability (draw 23%, Cardiff 24%). The final result was Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff.

Match statistics
36
Total shots
7
12
Shots on target
3
2.78
Actual xG
0.91
1
Saves
8
57%
Possession
43%
11
Corners
4
20
Tackles
17
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
19'
Brian Barry-Murphy
22'
ast. Ollie·Tanner · Jack Moylan⚽
25'
Joel Bagan
45'+1
ast. Jack Moylan · Ollie·Tanner⚽
↕ Kyle Joseph / will lankshear
45'
↕ Luke Ayling / Sebastian Berhalter
45'
45'
David Turnbull / Joel Colwill ↕
⚽Tommy Conway · ast. Callum Brittain
58'
⚽will lankshear · ast. Amario Cozier-Duberry
61'
63'
William Fish / Christopher Willock ↕
73'
Calum Scanlon / Ronan Kpakio ↕
↕ Amario Cozier-Duberry / Max Arfsten
74'
79'
Isaak Davies / Ollie·Tanner ↕
↕ Riley McGree / Myles Peart-Harris
79'
83'
Gabriel Osho
88'
Jack Moylan
↕ Neto Borges / Jeremy Sarmiento
89'
Pre-match prediction
51.33%
Middlesbrough
23.8%
X ←
24.87%
Cardiff
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 23.8% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
2.52
2.78
+0.26
Cardiff
1.52
0.91
-0.61
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (2.78 vs 0.91). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
1 R. Vítek R. Vítek G 6.22
30 Neto Borges Neto Borges 89' D 6.26
4 A. Phillips A. Phillips D 6.74
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling 45' D 6.72
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain 1 👟 D 7.79
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda M 6.38
10 A. Morris A. Morris M 6.46
9 T. Conway T. Conway 1 ⚽ M 8.20
8 R. McGree R. McGree 79' M 6.35
11 A. Cozier-Duberry A. Cozier-Duberry 1 👟 74' M 7.70
22 K. Joseph K. Joseph 45' F 6.88
Bench
18 C. Barron C. Barron M 0.00
16 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 1' F 6.56
19 Leo Castledine Leo Castledine M 0.00
17 M. Arfsten M. Arfsten 16' D 6.21
14 M. Peart-Harris M. Peart-Harris 11' M 6.01
6 S. Berhalter S. Berhalter 45' M 7.20
31 S. Brynn S. Brynn G 0.00
3 S. Byram S. Byram D 0.00
7 W. Lankshear W. Lankshear 1 ⚽ 45' F 8.07
Cardiff Cardiff 4-1-4-1
1 N. Trott N. Trott G 7.29
3 J. Bagan J. Bagan D 6.58
4 G. Osho G. Osho 83' D 5.60
5 K. Bielik K. Bielik D 6.78
44 R. Kpakio R. Kpakio 73' D 6.67
18 A. Robertson A. Robertson M 6.76
16 C. Willock C. Willock 63' M 6.10
45 Cian Ashford Cian Ashford M 7.15
27 J. Colwill J. Colwill 45' M 6.31
11 O. Tanner O. Tanner 1 ⚽ 1 👟 79' M 7.96
8 J. Moylan J. Moylan 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.81
Bench
23 C. Scanlon C. Scanlon 17' D 6.32
14 D. Turnbull D. Turnbull 45' M 6.18
30 H. Tyrer H. Tyrer G 0.00
39 I. Davies I. Davies 11' F 6.37
43 P. Moreno P. Moreno M 0.00
33 R. Tankiewicz R. Tankiewicz M 0.00
52 T. Perrett T. Perrett M 0.00
2 W. Fish W. Fish 27' D 6.40
Best on the pitch
T. Conway
T. Conway
M · Middlesbrough
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 38 pass
W. Lankshear
W. Lankshear
F · Middlesbrough
8.07
1 ⚽
3 shots · 6 pass
O. Tanner
O. Tanner
M · Cardiff
7.96
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 23 pass
J. Moylan
J. Moylan
F · Cardiff
7.81
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 9 pass
C. Brittain
C. Brittain
D · Middlesbrough
7.79
1 👟
1 shots · 55 pass
A. Cozier-Duberry
A. Cozier-Duberry
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
1 👟
8 shots · 27 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Vítek G 90 6.22 — — 0 23 16% 0 — —
Neto Borges D 89 6.26 — — 5 38 31% 2 — —
A. Phillips D 90 6.74 — — 1 49 47% 0 — —
L. Ayling D 45 6.72 — — 0 35 30% 2 — —
C. Brittain D 90 7.79 — 1 1 55 42% 3 — —
A. Malanda M 90 6.38 — — 2 86 68% 2 — —
A. Morris M 90 6.46 — — 5 60 54% 1 — —
T. Conway M 90 8.20 1 — 3 38 30% 1 — —
R. McGree M 79 6.35 — — 0 28 24% 2 — —
A. Cozier-Duberry M 74 7.70 — 1 8 27 24% 2 — —
K. Joseph F 45 6.88 — — 3 7 5% 1 — —
J. Sarmiento F 1 6.56 — — 1 1 1% 0 — —
M. Arfsten D 16 6.21 — — 1 9 6% 0 — —
M. Peart-Harris M 11 6.01 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
S. Berhalter M 45 7.20 — — 3 24 22% 4 — —
W. Lankshear F 45 8.07 1 — 3 6 5% 0 — —
Cardiff Cardiff — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Trott G 90 7.29 — — 0 55 28% 0 — —
J. Bagan D 90 6.58 — — 0 26 20% 5 1 —
G. Osho D 83 5.60 — — 1 36 36% 0 — 1
K. Bielik D 90 6.78 — — 0 56 49% 2 — —
R. Kpakio D 73 6.67 — — 0 41 40% 0 — —
A. Robertson M 90 6.76 — — 0 48 42% 0 — —
C. Willock M 63 6.10 — — 0 19 17% 0 — —
Cian Ashford M 90 7.15 — — 1 21 19% 1 — —
J. Colwill M 45 6.31 — — 0 17 13% 2 — —
O. Tanner M 79 7.96 1 1 2 23 17% 1 — —
J. Moylan F 90 7.81 1 1 3 9 5% 3 1 —
C. Scanlon D 17 6.32 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
D. Turnbull M 45 6.18 — — 0 17 14% 3 — —
I. Davies F 11 6.37 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
W. Fish D 27 6.40 — — 0 8 6% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
The final score was Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 23% to a draw, and 24% to an Cardiff win.