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Championship · Regular Season - 1 August 15, 2026 16:00 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
#1 · 25 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Lincoln
#15 · 15 pts
W. Lankshear 62'
W. Lankshear (ast. R. McGree) 90'+1
12' (ast. T. Darikwa) A. Reach
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 40% win probability (draw 30%, Lincoln 29%). The final result was Middlesbrough 2–1 Lincoln.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
2
2.26
Actual xG
0.62
0
Saves
5
78%
Possession
22%
5
Corners
5
14
Tackles
17
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
12'
ast. T. Darikwa · A. Reach⚽
36'
F. Draper
59'
T. Olaofe / F. Draper ↕
59'
R. Street / D. Jefferies ↕
⚽W. Lankshear
62'
↕ A. Kante / R. McGree
63'
↕ L. Castledine / M. Peart-Harris
63'
↕ Neto Borges / M. Arfsten
63'
↕ K. Joseph / J. Sarmiento
71'
71'
R. Hackett-Fairchild / B. House ↕
89'
T. Olaofe
⚽W. Lankshear · ast. R. McGree
90'+1
90'+2
T. Bayliss / A. Reach ↕
90'+2
A. Coubis / T. Darikwa ↕
↕ M. Whittaker / A. Jones
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
40.57%
Middlesbrough ←
30.26%
X
29.18%
Lincoln
we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 40.57% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
1.16
2.26
+1.1
Lincoln
2.36
0.62
-1.74
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (2.26 vs 0.62). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-2-2
1 R. Vítek R. Vítek G 6.30
30 Neto Borges Neto Borges 63' D 6.30
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda D 7.90
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling D 7.50
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain D 6.20
6 S. Berhalter S. Berhalter M 7.30
42 A. Kanté A. Kanté 63' M 7.30
19 Leo Castledine Leo Castledine 63' M 6.30
11 M. Whittaker M. Whittaker M 6.30
22 K. Joseph K. Joseph 71' F 6.60
7 W. Lankshear W. Lankshear 2 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
5 A. Jones A. Jones 1' D
44 Cruz Ibeh Cruz Ibeh M
46 Finlay Cartwright Finlay Cartwright M
25 George Edmundson George Edmundson D
16 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 22' F 6.70
17 M. Arfsten M. Arfsten 30' D 7.20
14 M. Peart-Harris M. Peart-Harris 30' M 6.90
8 R. McGree R. McGree 1 👟 30' M 6.90
31 S. Brynn S. Brynn G
Lincoln Lincoln 5-3-2
1 G. Wickens G. Wickens G 6.90
3 A. Reach A. Reach 1 ⚽ D 7.00
6 R. Towler R. Towler D 6.70
25 D. Elerewe D. Elerewe D 6.60
22 T. Hamer T. Hamer D 6.30
2 Tendayi Darikwa Tendayi Darikwa 1 👟 D 6.00
14 C. McGrandles C. McGrandles M 7.00
24 I. Varfolomeev I. Varfolomeev M 7.20
16 D. Jefferies D. Jefferies 59' M 6.60
18 B. House B. House 71' F 7.30
34 F. Draper F. Draper 59' F 6.20
Bench
4 A. Coubiș A. Coubiș 1' D
20 C. Elder C. Elder D
19 I. Olaofe I. Olaofe 34' F 6.50
46 J. Gauci J. Gauci G
23 J. Honohan J. Honohan D
10 M. Melia M. Melia F
7 R. Hackett R. Hackett 22' M 6.20
17 R. Street R. Street 34' F 6.90
8 T. Bayliss T. Bayliss 1' M
Best on the pitch
A. Malanda
A. Malanda
D · Middlesbrough
7.90
1 shots · 82 pass
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.50
2 shots · 82 pass
S. Berhalter
S. Berhalter
M · Middlesbrough
7.30
· 77 pass
A. Kanté
A. Kanté
M · Middlesbrough
7.30
1 shots · 56 pass
B. House
B. House
F · Lincoln
7.30
1 shots · 7 pass
I. Varfolomeev
I. Varfolomeev
M · Lincoln
7.20
· 24 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Vítek G 93 6.30 — — — 19 17% — — —
Neto Borges D 63 6.30 — — — 49 42% — — —
A. Malanda D 93 7.90 — — 1 82 76% 2 — —
L. Ayling D 93 7.50 — — 2 82 79% 1 — —
C. Brittain D 93 6.20 — — — 66 58% 1 — —
S. Berhalter M 93 7.30 — — — 77 64% — — —
A. Kanté M 63 7.30 — — 1 56 54% 2 — —
Leo Castledine M 63 6.30 — — — 20 14% — — —
M. Whittaker M 92 6.30 — — 3 47 43% 3 — —
K. Joseph F 71 6.60 — — 1 18 11% 2 — —
W. Lankshear F 93 7.20 2 — 4 16 12% — — —
A. Jones D 1 — — — — — — — — —
J. Sarmiento F 22 6.70 — — 1 12 12% — — —
M. Arfsten D 30 7.20 — — — 29 25% 3 — —
M. Peart-Harris M 30 6.90 — — 1 30 28% — — —
R. McGree M 30 6.90 — 1 — 20 18% — — —
Lincoln Lincoln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Wickens G 93 6.90 — — — 37 11% — — —
A. Reach D 92 7.00 1 — 1 17 11% — — —
R. Towler D 93 6.70 — — — 3 2% — — —
D. Elerewe D 93 6.60 — — — 7 3% 3 — —
T. Hamer D 93 6.30 — — 1 16 9% — — —
Tendayi Darikwa D 92 6.00 — 1 — 12 6% 1 — —
C. McGrandles M 93 7.00 — — — 23 18% — — —
I. Varfolomeev M 93 7.20 — — — 24 18% 2 — —
D. Jefferies M 59 6.60 — — 1 3 3% 2 — —
B. House F 71 7.30 — — 1 7 4% 5 — —
F. Draper F 59 6.20 — — 2 10 6% 2 1 —
A. Coubiș D 1 — — — — — — — — —
I. Olaofe F 34 6.50 — — — 5 2% — 1 —
R. Hackett M 22 6.20 — — — 4 2% — — —
R. Street F 34 6.90 — — — 4 3% 2 — —
T. Bayliss M 1 — — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Lincoln?
The final score was Middlesbrough 2–1 Lincoln.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Lincoln?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 30% to a draw, and 29% to an Lincoln win.