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Championship · Regular Season - 40 April 03, 2026 13:30 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
#1 · 25 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Millwall
#13 · 15 pts
D. Fry (ast. A. Browne) 26'
58' (ast. M. Ivanovic) J. Coburn
86' (ast. B. Bannan) J. Coburn
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 46% win probability (draw 24%, Millwall 28%). The final result was Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall. In 2 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Millwall.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
5
3.04
Actual xG
0.79
4
Saves
3
61%
Possession
39%
17
Corners
6
11
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Riley McGree
13'
13'
Jake Cooper
⚽D. Fry · ast. A. Browne
26'
58'
ast. M. Ivanovic · J. Coburn⚽
64'
B. Bannan / C. De Norre ↕
↕ M. Targett / A. Bangura
78'
85'
M. Langstaff / M. Ivanovic ↕
86'
ast. B. Bannan · J. Coburn⚽
↕ C. Brittain / J. Sarmiento
89'
90'+5
D. McNamara / F. Azeez ↕
90'+5
L. Cundle / B. Mitchell ↕
Pre-match prediction
46.45%
Middlesbrough
24.83%
X
28.72%
Millwall ←
we assigned to the actual result (Millwall) 28.72% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
1.72
3.04
+1.32
Millwall
1.24
0.79
-0.45
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (3.04 vs 0.79). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
31
G 6.30
6 D. Fry D. Fry 1 ⚽ D 7.20
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda D 5.60
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling D 7.30
3 M. Targett M. Targett 78' M 7.30
18 A. Morris A. Morris M 7.60
16 A. Browne A. Browne 1 👟 M 7.30
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain 89' M 7.20
9 T. Conway T. Conway F 7.90
8 R. McGree R. McGree F 6.50
13 D. Strelec D. Strelec F 6.30
Bench
24 A. Bangura A. Bangura 18' D 6.50
14 A. Gilbert A. Gilbert F
15 Finley Munroe Finley Munroe D
45 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 7' M
Millwall Millwall 4-3-1-2
13
G 6.90
3 Zak Norton Sturge Zak Norton Sturge D 7.70
5 J. Cooper J. Cooper D 7.00
6 C. Taylor C. Taylor D 7.70
4
D 6.60
24 C. De Norre C. De Norre 64' M 6.20
8 B. Mitchell B. Mitchell M 6.90
11 Femi Azeez Femi Azeez M 7.20
10 C. Neghli C. Neghli M 6.60
19 J. Coburn J. Coburn 2 ⚽ F 8.50
9 M. Ivanović M. Ivanović 1 👟 85' F 6.70
Bench
67 B. Bannan B. Bannan 1 👟 32' M 6.90
49 D. Mazou-Sacko D. Mazou-Sacko M
2 D. McNamara D. McNamara 1' D
23 J. Bryan J. Bryan D
25 L. Cundle L. Cundle 1' M
17 Macaulay Langstaff Macaulay Langstaff 11' F 6.50
7 T. Ballo T. Ballo F
Best on the pitch
J. Coburn
J. Coburn
F · Millwall
8.50
2 ⚽
2 shots · 7 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
7.90
· 26 pass
Zak Norton Sturge
Zak Norton Sturge
D · Millwall
7.70
· 19 pass
C. Taylor
C. Taylor
D · Millwall
7.70
· 35 pass
A. Morris
A. Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.60
· 48 pass
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.30
2 shots · 56 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.30 — — — 21 11% — — —
D. Fry D 96 7.20 1 — 4 51 37% 2 — —
A. Malanda D 96 5.60 — — 1 44 29% — — —
L. Ayling D 96 7.30 — — 2 56 41% 1 — —
M. Targett M 78 7.30 — — 1 40 35% 2 — —
A. Morris M 96 7.60 — — — 48 40% 1 — —
A. Browne M 96 7.30 — 1 1 41 37% — — —
C. Brittain M 89 7.20 — — 2 35 24% 2 — —
T. Conway F 96 7.90 — — — 26 23% 2 — —
R. McGree F 96 6.50 — — 3 31 20% 1 1 —
D. Strelec F 96 6.30 — — — 14 11% — — —
A. Bangura D 18 6.50 — — — 7 6% — — —
J. Sarmiento M 7 — — — — 6 6% — — —
Millwall Millwall — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.90 — — — 34 16% — — —
Zak Norton Sturge D 96 7.70 — — — 19 12% — — —
J. Cooper D 96 7.00 — — 1 36 24% 2 1 —
C. Taylor D 96 7.70 — — — 35 25% 1 — —
D 96 6.60 — — 1 29 19% 2 — —
C. De Norre M 64 6.20 — — 1 15 8% 1 — —
B. Mitchell M 95 6.90 — — 1 29 18% — — —
Femi Azeez M 95 7.20 — — 1 10 6% 1 — —
C. Neghli M 96 6.60 — — — 29 25% 2 — —
J. Coburn F 96 8.50 2 — 2 7 5% 2 — —
M. Ivanović F 85 6.70 — 1 — 17 9% — — —
B. Bannan M 32 6.90 — 1 1 11 9% — — —
D. McNamara D 1 — — — — — — — — —
L. Cundle M 1 — — — — — — — — —
Macaulay Langstaff F 11 6.50 — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The final score was Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 24% to a draw, and 28% to an Millwall win.