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Championship · Regular Season - 40 April 03, 2026 13:30 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
#6 · 10 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Millwall
#9 · 9 pts
D. Fry (ast. A. Browne) 26'
58' (ast. M. Ivanovic) J. Coburn
86' (ast. B. Bannan) J. Coburn
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 46% win probability (draw 24%, Millwall 28%). The final result was Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Millwall.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
5
3.04
Actual xG
0.79
4
Saves
3
61%
Possession
39%
17
Corners
6
11
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Riley McGree
13'
13'
Jake Cooper
⚽D. Fry · ast. A. Browne
26'
58'
ast. M. Ivanovic · J. Coburn⚽
64'
B. Bannan / C. De Norre ↕
↕ M. Targett / A. Bangura
78'
85'
M. Langstaff / M. Ivanovic ↕
86'
ast. B. Bannan · J. Coburn⚽
↕ C. Brittain / J. Sarmiento
89'
90'+5
D. McNamara / F. Azeez ↕
90'+5
L. Cundle / B. Mitchell ↕
Pre-match prediction
46.45%
Middlesbrough
24.83%
X
28.72%
Millwall ←
we assigned to the actual result (Millwall) 28.72% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
1.72
3.04
+1.32
Millwall
1.24
0.79
-0.45
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (3.04 vs 0.79). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 West Ham West Ham 7 14
2 West Brom West Brom 7 14
3 QPR QPR 7 12
4 Swansea Swansea 6 11
5 Charlton Charlton 6 11
6 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 5 10
7 Bristol City Bristol City 5 10
8 Birmingham Birmingham 7 10
9 Millwall Millwall 5 9
10 Norwich Norwich 6 9
11 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 6 9
12 Wolves Wolves 5 8
13 Watford Watford 6 8
14 Southampton Southampton 6 7
15 Stoke City Stoke City 6 7
16 Wrexham Wrexham 7 7
17 Bolton Bolton 7 7
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 5 6
19 Blackburn Blackburn 6 5
20 Lincoln Lincoln 5 5
21 Cardiff Cardiff 7 4
22 Derby Derby 7 4
23 Burnley Burnley 6 3
24 Preston Preston 6 3
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
31
G 6.30
6 D. Fry D. Fry 1 ⚽ D 7.20
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda D 5.60
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling D 7.30
3 M. Targett M. Targett 78' M 7.30
18 A. Morris A. Morris M 7.60
16 A. Browne A. Browne 1 👟 M 7.30
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain 89' M 7.20
9 T. Conway T. Conway F 7.90
8 R. McGree R. McGree F 6.50
13 D. Strelec D. Strelec F 6.30
Bench
24
A. Bangura 18' D 6.50
14 A. Gilbert A. Gilbert F
15 Finley Munroe Finley Munroe D
45 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 7' M
Millwall Millwall 4-3-1-2
13
G 6.90
3 Zak Norton Sturge Zak Norton Sturge D 7.70
5 J. Cooper J. Cooper D 7.00
6 C. Taylor C. Taylor D 7.70
4
D 6.60
24 C. De Norre C. De Norre 64' M 6.20
8 B. Mitchell B. Mitchell M 6.90
11 Femi Azeez Femi Azeez M 7.20
10 C. Neghli C. Neghli M 6.60
19 J. Coburn J. Coburn 2 ⚽ F 8.50
9 Mihailo Ivanović Mihailo Ivanović 1 👟 85' F 6.70
Bench
67 B. Bannan B. Bannan 1 👟 32' M 6.90
49 D. Mazou-Sacko D. Mazou-Sacko M
2 D. McNamara D. McNamara 1' D
23 J. Bryan J. Bryan D
25 L. Cundle L. Cundle 1' M
17 Macaulay Langstaff Macaulay Langstaff 11' F 6.50
7 T. Ballo T. Ballo F
Best on the pitch
J. Coburn
J. Coburn
F · Millwall
8.50
2 ⚽
2 shots · 7 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
7.90
· 26 pass
Zak Norton Sturge
Zak Norton Sturge
D · Millwall
7.70
· 19 pass
C. Taylor
C. Taylor
D · Millwall
7.70
· 35 pass
A. Morris
A. Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.60
· 48 pass
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.30
2 shots · 56 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.30 — — — 21 11% — — —
D. Fry D 96 7.20 1 — 4 51 37% 2 — —
A. Malanda D 96 5.60 — — 1 44 29% — — —
L. Ayling D 96 7.30 — — 2 56 41% 1 — —
M. Targett M 78 7.30 — — 1 40 35% 2 — —
A. Morris M 96 7.60 — — — 48 40% 1 — —
A. Browne M 96 7.30 — 1 1 41 37% — — —
C. Brittain M 89 7.20 — — 2 35 24% 2 — —
T. Conway F 96 7.90 — — — 26 23% 2 — —
R. McGree F 96 6.50 — — 3 31 20% 1 1 —
D. Strelec F 96 6.30 — — — 14 11% — — —
A. Bangura D 18 6.50 — — — 7 6% — — —
J. Sarmiento M 7 — — — — 6 6% — — —
Millwall Millwall — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.90 — — — 34 16% — — —
Zak Norton Sturge D 96 7.70 — — — 19 12% — — —
J. Cooper D 96 7.00 — — 1 36 24% 2 1 —
C. Taylor D 96 7.70 — — — 35 25% 1 — —
D 96 6.60 — — 1 29 19% 2 — —
C. De Norre M 64 6.20 — — 1 15 8% 1 — —
B. Mitchell M 95 6.90 — — 1 29 18% — — —
Femi Azeez M 95 7.20 — — 1 10 6% 1 — —
C. Neghli M 96 6.60 — — — 29 25% 2 — —
J. Coburn F 96 8.50 2 — 2 7 5% 2 — —
Mihailo Ivanović F 85 6.70 — 1 — 17 9% — — —
B. Bannan M 32 6.90 — 1 1 11 9% — — —
D. McNamara D 1 — — — — — — — — —
L. Cundle M 1 — — — — — — — — —
Macaulay Langstaff F 11 6.50 — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The final score was Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 24% to a draw, and 28% to an Millwall win.