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Championship · Regular Season - 40 April 03, 2026 13:30
Middlesbrough
#5 · 80 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Millwall
#3 · 83 pts
D. Fry (ast. A. Browne) 26'
58' (ast. M. Ivanovic) J. Coburn
86' (ast. B. Bannan) J. Coburn

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 46% win probability (draw 24%, Millwall 28%). The final result was Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Millwall.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
5
3.04
Actual xG
0.79
4
Saves
3
61%
Possession
39%
17
Corners
6
11
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Riley McGree
13'
13'
Jake Cooper
⚽D. Fry · ast. A. Browne
26'
58'
ast. M. Ivanovic · J. Coburn⚽
64'
B. Bannan / C. De Norre ↕
↕ M. Targett / A. Bangura
78'
85'
M. Langstaff / M. Ivanovic ↕
86'
ast. B. Bannan · J. Coburn⚽
↕ C. Brittain / J. Sarmiento
89'
90'+5
D. McNamara / F. Azeez ↕
90'+5
L. Cundle / B. Mitchell ↕
Pre-match prediction
46.45%
Middlesbrough
24.83%
X
28.72%
Millwall ←
we assigned to the actual result (Millwall) 28.72% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
1.72
3.04
+1.32
Millwall
1.24
0.79
-0.45
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (3.04 vs 0.79). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
31
G 6.30
6 Dael Fry Dael Fry 1 ⚽ D 7.20
29 Adilson Malanda Adilson Malanda D 5.60
12 Luke Ayling Luke Ayling D 7.30
3 Matt Targett Matt Targett 78' M 7.30
18 Aidan Morris Aidan Morris M 7.60
16 Alan Browne Alan Browne 1 👟 M 7.30
2 Callum Brittain Callum Brittain 89' M 7.20
9 T. Conway T. Conway F 7.90
8 Riley McGree Riley McGree F 6.50
13 David Strelec David Strelec F 6.30
Bench
24
A. Bangura 18' D 6.50
14 Alexander Gilbert Alexander Gilbert F
15 Finley Munroe Finley Munroe D
45 Jeremy Sarmiento Jeremy Sarmiento 7' M
Millwall Millwall 4-3-1-2
13
G 6.90
3 Zak Sturge Zak Sturge D 7.70
5 J. Cooper J. Cooper D 7.00
6
C. Taylor D 7.70
4
D 6.60
24 Casper De Norre Casper De Norre 64' M 6.20
8 Billy Mitchell Billy Mitchell M 6.90
11 O. Azeez O. Azeez M 7.20
10 Camiel Neghli Camiel Neghli M 6.60
19 Josh Coburn Josh Coburn 2 ⚽ F 8.50
9 Mihailo Ivanović Mihailo Ivanović 1 👟 85' F 6.70
Bench
67 Barry Bannan Barry Bannan 1 👟 32' M 6.90
2 Danny McNamara Danny McNamara 1' D
49 Derek Mazou-Sacko Derek Mazou-Sacko M
23
J. Bryan D
25 Luke Cundle Luke Cundle 1' M
17 Macaulay Langstaff Macaulay Langstaff 11' F 6.50
7 Thierno Ballo Thierno Ballo F
Best on the pitch
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn
F · Millwall
8.50
2 ⚽
2 shots · 7 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
7.90
· 26 pass
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge
D · Millwall
7.70
· 19 pass
C. Taylor
D · Millwall
7.70
· 35 pass
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.60
· 48 pass
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.30
2 shots · 56 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.30 — — — 21 11% — — —
Dael Fry D 96 7.20 1 — 4 51 37% 2 — —
Adilson Malanda D 96 5.60 — — 1 44 29% — — —
Luke Ayling D 96 7.30 — — 2 56 41% 1 — —
Matt Targett M 78 7.30 — — 1 40 35% 2 — —
Aidan Morris M 96 7.60 — — — 48 40% 1 — —
Alan Browne M 96 7.30 — 1 1 41 37% — — —
Callum Brittain M 89 7.20 — — 2 35 24% 2 — —
T. Conway F 96 7.90 — — — 26 23% 2 — —
Riley McGree F 96 6.50 — — 3 31 20% 1 1 —
David Strelec F 96 6.30 — — — 14 11% — — —
A. Bangura D 18 6.50 — — — 7 6% — — —
Jeremy Sarmiento M 7 — — — — 6 6% — — —
Millwall Millwall — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.90 — — — 34 16% — — —
Zak Sturge D 96 7.70 — — — 19 12% — — —
J. Cooper D 96 7.00 — — 1 36 24% 2 1 —
C. Taylor D 96 7.70 — — — 35 25% 1 — —
D 96 6.60 — — 1 29 19% 2 — —
Casper De Norre M 64 6.20 — — 1 15 8% 1 — —
Billy Mitchell M 95 6.90 — — 1 29 18% — — —
O. Azeez M 95 7.20 — — 1 10 6% 1 — —
Camiel Neghli M 96 6.60 — — — 29 25% 2 — —
Josh Coburn F 96 8.50 2 — 2 7 5% 2 — —
Mihailo Ivanović F 85 6.70 — 1 — 17 9% — — —
Barry Bannan M 32 6.90 — 1 1 11 9% — — —
Danny McNamara D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Luke Cundle M 1 — — — — — — — — —
Macaulay Langstaff F 11 6.50 — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The final score was Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 24% to a draw, and 28% to an Millwall win.