✗Model wrong — prediction Middlesbrough, result Portsmouth wins
90'+7
(ast. A. Segecic)
C. Chaplin
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 61% win probability (draw 22%, Portsmouth 16%). The final result was Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Portsmouth.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
3
8
Shots on target
1
1.29
Actual xG
0.51
0
Saves
8
71%
Possession
29%
14
Corners
2
13
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
26'
J. Williams
M. Targett
/ L. Ayling
46'
J. Sarmiento
/ S. Hansen
46'
D. Strelec
/ M. K. Sene
63'
65'
A. Segecic
/
G. Caballero
72'
K. Anderson
75'
M. Alli
/
K. Anderson
76'
I. Bowat
/
J. Williams
R. McGree
/ A. Gilbert
84'
85'
C. Shaughnessy
/
M. Dia
89'
C. Bishop
T. Conway
/ C. Ibeh
90'+2
D. Fry
90'+3
90'+7
ast. A. Segecic ·
C. Chaplin⚽
90'+9
M. Pack
Pre-match prediction
61.42%
Middlesbrough
22.46%
X
16.12%
Portsmouth ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Portsmouth)
16.12%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.86
1.29
-0.58
0.68
0.51
-0.17
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (1.29 vs 0.51).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
G
3
Matt Targett
45'
D
Matt Targett
45'
D
29
Adilson Malanda
D
Adilson Malanda
D
6
Dael Fry
D
Dael Fry
D
2
Callum Brittain
D
Callum Brittain
D
18
Aidan Morris
M
Aidan Morris
M
16
Alan Browne
M
Alan Browne
M
45
Jeremy Sarmiento
45'
M
Jeremy Sarmiento
45'
M
8
Riley McGree
84'
M
Riley McGree
84'
M
13
David Strelec
63'
F
9
T. Conway
89'
F
T. Conway
89'
F
Bench
14
Alexander Gilbert
15'
F
Alexander Gilbert
15'
F
15
Finley Munroe
D
Finley Munroe
D
12
Luke Ayling
45'
D
Luke Ayling
45'
D
27
S. Hansen
45'
F
S. Hansen
45'
F
1
G
2
J. Williams
76'
D
55
M. Dia
85'
D
5
R. Poole
D
24
T. Devlin
D
T. Devlin
D
21
A. Dozzell
M
7
M. Pack
M
M. Pack
M
37
K. Anderson
75'
M
36
C. Chaplin
1 ⚽
M
47
G. Caballero
65'
M
G. Caballero
65'
M
9
C. Bishop
F
Bench
10
A. Segecic
1 👟
25'
M
6
C. Shaughnessy
14'
D
29
H. Blair
F
17
I. Bowat
14'
D
26
J. Bursik
G
8
J. Swift
M
16
L. Le Roux
M
27
Millenic Alli
15'
F
Millenic Alli
15'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Portsmouth
9.00
· 29 pass
Aidan Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
3 shots
· 68 pass
Alan Browne
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
3 shots
· 60 pass
T. Devlin
D · Portsmouth
7.50
· 29 pass
M. Dia
D · Portsmouth
7.50
· 17 pass
Matt Targett
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
· 33 pass
Middlesbrough — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| Matt Targett | D | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Adilson Malanda | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 97 | 83% | — | — | — |
| Dael Fry | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 83 | 74% | — | 1 | — |
| Callum Brittain | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 52 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Aidan Morris | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 3 | 68 | 60% | 5 | — | — |
| Alan Browne | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 3 | 60 | 54% | 3 | — | — |
| Jeremy Sarmiento | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Riley McGree | M | 84 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 28% | — | — | — |
| David Strelec | F | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| T. Conway | F | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Alexander Gilbert | F | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Luke Ayling | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Hansen | F | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
Portsmouth — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 9.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 11% | — | — | — | |
| J. Williams | D | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Dia | D | 85 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Poole | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Devlin | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Dozzell | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Pack | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| K. Anderson | M | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Chaplin | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Caballero | M | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Bishop | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Segecic | M | 25 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| C. Shaughnessy | D | 14 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| I. Bowat | D | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Millenic Alli | F | 15 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?
The final score was Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 22% to a draw, and 16% to an Portsmouth win.