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Championship · Regular Season - 42 April 11, 2026 16:00 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
#1 · 25 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Portsmouth
#11 · 18 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Middlesbrough, result Portsmouth wins
90'+7 (ast. A. Segecic) C. Chaplin
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 61% win probability (draw 22%, Portsmouth 16%). The final result was Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Portsmouth.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
3
8
Shots on target
1
1.29
Actual xG
0.51
0
Saves
8
71%
Possession
29%
14
Corners
2
13
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
26'
J. Williams
↕ M. Targett / L. Ayling
46'
↕ J. Sarmiento / S. Hansen
46'
↕ D. Strelec / M. K. Sene
63'
65'
A. Segecic / G. Caballero ↕
72'
K. Anderson
75'
M. Alli / K. Anderson ↕
76'
I. Bowat / J. Williams ↕
↕ R. McGree / A. Gilbert
84'
85'
C. Shaughnessy / M. Dia ↕
89'
C. Bishop
↕ T. Conway / C. Ibeh
90'+2
D. Fry
90'+3
90'+7
ast. A. Segecic · C. Chaplin⚽
90'+9
M. Pack
Pre-match prediction
61.42%
Middlesbrough
22.46%
X
16.12%
Portsmouth ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Portsmouth) 16.12% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
1.86
1.29
-0.58
Portsmouth
0.68
0.51
-0.17
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (1.29 vs 0.51). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-2-2
31
G 6.20
3 M. Targett M. Targett 45' D 7.20
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda D 6.90
6 D. Fry D. Fry D 7.20
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain D 6.60
18 A. Morris A. Morris M 7.70
16 A. Browne A. Browne M 7.70
45 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 45' M 6.60
8 R. McGree R. McGree 84' M 6.60
13 D. Strelec D. Strelec 63' F 6.30
9 T. Conway T. Conway 89' F 7.20
Bench
14 A. Gilbert A. Gilbert 15' F 6.50
15 Finley Munroe Finley Munroe D
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling 45' D 6.60
27 Sontje Hansen Sontje Hansen 45' F 7.00
Portsmouth Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
1
G 9.00
2 J. Williams J. Williams 76' D 6.20
55 M. Dia M. Dia 85' D 7.50
5 R. Poole R. Poole D 7.00
24 T. Devlin T. Devlin D 7.50
21 A. Dozzell A. Dozzell M 6.90
7 M. Pack M. Pack M 6.90
37 K. Anderson K. Anderson 75' M 6.20
36 C. Chaplin C. Chaplin 1 ⚽ M 7.20
47 G. Caballero G. Caballero 65' M 6.50
9 C. Bishop C. Bishop F 6.70
Bench
10 A. Segecic A. Segecic 1 👟 25' M 6.90
6 C. Shaughnessy C. Shaughnessy 14' D 7.20
29 H. Blair H. Blair F
17 I. Bowat I. Bowat 14' D 6.70
26 J. Bursik J. Bursik G
8 J. Swift J. Swift M
16 Luke Le Roux Luke Le Roux M
27 M. Alli M. Alli 15' F 6.20
Best on the pitch
G · Portsmouth
9.00
· 29 pass
A. Morris
A. Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
3 shots · 68 pass
A. Browne
A. Browne
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
3 shots · 60 pass
T. Devlin
T. Devlin
D · Portsmouth
7.50
· 29 pass
M. Dia
M. Dia
D · Portsmouth
7.50
· 17 pass
M. Targett
M. Targett
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
· 33 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 24 17% — — —
M. Targett D 45 7.20 — — — 33 28% 2 — —
A. Malanda D 90 6.90 — — — 97 83% — — —
D. Fry D 90 7.20 — — 1 83 74% — 1 —
C. Brittain D 90 6.60 — — — 52 44% 1 — —
A. Morris M 90 7.70 — — 3 68 60% 5 — —
A. Browne M 90 7.70 — — 3 60 54% 3 — —
J. Sarmiento M 45 6.60 — — — 24 22% — — —
R. McGree M 84 6.60 — — 2 31 28% — — —
D. Strelec F 63 6.30 — — 1 12 11% — — —
T. Conway F 89 7.20 — — — 24 20% — — —
A. Gilbert F 15 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
L. Ayling D 45 6.60 — — 1 32 23% 2 — —
Sontje Hansen F 45 7.00 — — 2 15 14% — — —
Portsmouth Portsmouth — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 9.00 — — — 29 11% — — —
J. Williams D 76 6.20 — — — 15 12% — 1 —
M. Dia D 85 7.50 — — — 17 14% 1 — —
R. Poole D 90 7.00 — — — 21 16% 1 — —
T. Devlin D 90 7.50 — — — 29 15% 3 — —
A. Dozzell M 90 6.90 — — — 16 15% 1 — —
M. Pack M 90 6.90 — — — 27 20% 1 1 —
K. Anderson M 75 6.20 — — — 14 9% 2 1 —
C. Chaplin M 90 7.20 1 — 1 23 15% 1 — —
G. Caballero M 65 6.50 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
C. Bishop F 90 6.70 — — 1 15 9% 2 1 —
A. Segecic M 25 6.90 — 1 1 2 2% — — —
C. Shaughnessy D 14 7.20 — — — 2 2% — — —
I. Bowat D 14 6.70 — — — 2 — — — —
M. Alli F 15 6.20 — — — 4 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?
The final score was Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 22% to a draw, and 16% to an Portsmouth win.