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Championship · Regular Season - 42 April 11, 2026 16:00
Middlesbrough
#5 · 80 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Portsmouth
#18 · 55 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Middlesbrough, result Portsmouth vince
90'+7 (ast. A. Segecic) C. Chaplin

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 61% win probability (draw 22%, Portsmouth 16%). The final result was Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Portsmouth.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
3
8
Shots on target
1
1.29
Actual xG
0.51
0
Saves
8
71%
Possession
29%
14
Corners
2
13
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
26'
J. Williams
↕ M. Targett / L. Ayling
46'
↕ J. Sarmiento / S. Hansen
46'
↕ D. Strelec / M. K. Sene
63'
65'
A. Segecic / G. Caballero ↕
72'
K. Anderson
75'
M. Alli / K. Anderson ↕
76'
I. Bowat / J. Williams ↕
↕ R. McGree / A. Gilbert
84'
85'
C. Shaughnessy / M. Dia ↕
89'
C. Bishop
↕ T. Conway / C. Ibeh
90'+2
D. Fry
90'+3
90'+7
ast. A. Segecic · C. Chaplin⚽
90'+9
M. Pack
Pre-match prediction
61.42%
Middlesbrough
22.46%
X
16.12%
Portsmouth ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Portsmouth) 16.12% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
1.86
1.29
-0.58
Portsmouth
0.68
0.51
-0.17
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (1.29 vs 0.51). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-2-2
31
G 6.20
3 Matt Targett Matt Targett 45' D 7.20
29 Adilson Malanda Adilson Malanda D 6.90
6 Dael Fry Dael Fry D 7.20
2 Callum Brittain Callum Brittain D 6.60
18 Aidan Morris Aidan Morris M 7.70
16 Alan Browne Alan Browne M 7.70
45 Jeremy Sarmiento Jeremy Sarmiento 45' M 6.60
8 Riley McGree Riley McGree 84' M 6.60
13 David Strelec David Strelec 63' F 6.30
9 T. Conway T. Conway 89' F 7.20
Bench
14 Alexander Gilbert Alexander Gilbert 15' F 6.50
15 Finley Munroe Finley Munroe D
12 Luke Ayling Luke Ayling 45' D 6.60
27 Sontje Hansen Sontje Hansen 45' F 7.00
Portsmouth Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
1
G 9.00
2
J. Williams 76' D 6.20
55
M. Dia 85' D 7.50
5
R. Poole D 7.00
24
T. Devlin D 7.50
21
A. Dozzell M 6.90
7 M. Pack M. Pack M 6.90
37
K. Anderson 75' M 6.20
36
C. Chaplin 1 ⚽ M 7.20
47
G. Caballero 65' M 6.50
9
C. Bishop F 6.70
Bench
10
A. Segecic 1 👟 25' M 6.90
6
C. Shaughnessy 14' D 7.20
29
H. Blair F
17
I. Bowat 14' D 6.70
26
J. Bursik G
8
J. Swift M
16
L. Le Roux M
27
M. Alli 15' F 6.20
Best on the pitch
G · Portsmouth
9.00
· 29 pass
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
3 shots · 68 pass
Alan Browne
Alan Browne
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
3 shots · 60 pass
T. Devlin
D · Portsmouth
7.50
· 29 pass
M. Dia
D · Portsmouth
7.50
· 17 pass
Matt Targett
Matt Targett
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
· 33 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 24 17% — — —
Matt Targett D 45 7.20 — — — 33 28% 2 — —
Adilson Malanda D 90 6.90 — — — 97 83% — — —
Dael Fry D 90 7.20 — — 1 83 74% — 1 —
Callum Brittain D 90 6.60 — — — 52 44% 1 — —
Aidan Morris M 90 7.70 — — 3 68 60% 5 — —
Alan Browne M 90 7.70 — — 3 60 54% 3 — —
Jeremy Sarmiento M 45 6.60 — — — 24 22% — — —
Riley McGree M 84 6.60 — — 2 31 28% — — —
David Strelec F 63 6.30 — — 1 12 11% — — —
T. Conway F 89 7.20 — — — 24 20% — — —
Alexander Gilbert F 15 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
Luke Ayling D 45 6.60 — — 1 32 23% 2 — —
Sontje Hansen F 45 7.00 — — 2 15 14% — — —
Portsmouth Portsmouth — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 9.00 — — — 29 11% — — —
J. Williams D 76 6.20 — — — 15 12% — 1 —
M. Dia D 85 7.50 — — — 17 14% 1 — —
R. Poole D 90 7.00 — — — 21 16% 1 — —
T. Devlin D 90 7.50 — — — 29 15% 3 — —
A. Dozzell M 90 6.90 — — — 16 15% 1 — —
M. Pack M 90 6.90 — — — 27 20% 1 1 —
K. Anderson M 75 6.20 — — — 14 9% 2 1 —
C. Chaplin M 90 7.20 1 — 1 23 15% 1 — —
G. Caballero M 65 6.50 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
C. Bishop F 90 6.70 — — 1 15 9% 2 1 —
A. Segecic M 25 6.90 — 1 1 2 2% — — —
C. Shaughnessy D 14 7.20 — — — 2 2% — — —
I. Bowat D 14 6.70 — — — 2 — — — —
M. Alli F 15 6.20 — — — 4 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?
The final score was Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 22% to a draw, and 16% to an Portsmouth win.