✓Model correct — prediction Middlesbrough
M. Whittaker
6'
D. Strelec
(ast. M. Whittaker)
45'+1
M. Whittaker
58'
T. Conway
75'
(pen.)
T. Conway
(ast. D. Strelec)
90'+2
48'
(ast. K. Keben)
J. Abankwah
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 69% win probability (draw 18%, Watford 11%). The final result was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Watford.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
3
2.22
Actual xG
0.76
2
Saves
4
56%
Possession
44%
6
Corners
3
10
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Whittaker
6'
⚽D. Strelec
· ast. M. Whittaker
45'+1
A. Bangura
/ M. Targett
46'
48'
ast. K. Keben ·
J. Abankwah⚽
⚽M. Whittaker
58'
62'
O. Maamma
/
J. Ngakia
62'
M. Doumbia
/
E. Bove
63'
N. Irankunda
/
L. Kjerrumgaard
63'
J. Grieves
/
N. Mendy
M. Whittaker
/ T. Conway
63'
A. Malanda
/ D. Fry
63'
S. Hansen
/ L. Castledine
64'
74'
J. Abankwah
⚽T. Conway
(pen.)
75'
82'
T. Ince
/
M. Bola
J. Sarmiento
/ S. Silvera
83'
85'
I. Louza
A. Morris
85'
⚽T. Conway
· ast. D. Strelec
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
69.3%
Middlesbrough ←
18.78%
X
11.92%
Watford
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough)
69.3%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.21
2.22
+0.01
0.71
0.76
+0.05
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (2.22 vs 0.76).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
G
24
A. Bangura
45'
D
29
Adilson Malanda
63'
D
Adilson Malanda
63'
D
12
Luke Ayling
D
Luke Ayling
D
2
Callum Brittain
D
Callum Brittain
D
18
Aidan Morris
M
Aidan Morris
M
14
Alexander Gilbert
M
Alexander Gilbert
M
27
S. Hansen
64'
M
S. Hansen
64'
M
45
Jeremy Sarmiento
83'
M
Jeremy Sarmiento
83'
M
11
M. Whittaker
2 ⚽
1 👟
63'
M
M. Whittaker
2 ⚽
1 👟
63'
M
13
David Strelec
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
16
Alan Browne
M
Alan Browne
M
6
Dael Fry
34'
D
Dael Fry
34'
D
3
Matt Targett
52'
D
Matt Targett
52'
D
9
T. Conway
2 ⚽
34'
F
T. Conway
2 ⚽
34'
F
1
Egil Selvik
G
Egil Selvik
G
4
1 👟
D
6
M. Pollock
D
25
J. Abankwah
1 ⚽
D
J. Abankwah
1 ⚽
D
16
M. Bola
82'
M
39
E. Kayembe
M
E. Kayembe
M
10
I. Louza
M
I. Louza
M
23
N. Mendy
63'
M
2
J. Ngakia
62'
M
15
E. Bove
62'
F
9
L. Kjerrumgaard
63'
F
Bench
8
Giorgi Chakvetadze
M
20
M. Doumbia
35'
F
66
Nestory Irankunda
34'
F
Nestory Irankunda
34'
F
42
O. Maamma
35'
F
3
Saba Goglichidze
D
Best on the pitch
M. Whittaker
M · Middlesbrough
9.90
2 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 25 pass
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
8.90
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 8 pass
Matt Targett
D · Middlesbrough
7.70
· 51 pass
Luke Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 shots
· 78 pass
David Strelec
F · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 14 pass
Alexander Gilbert
M · Middlesbrough
7.00
1 shots
· 46 pass
Middlesbrough — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| A. Bangura | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Adilson Malanda | D | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 62 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Luke Ayling | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 78 | 73% | 2 | — | — |
| Callum Brittain | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Aidan Morris | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 63% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alexander Gilbert | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Hansen | M | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Sarmiento | M | 83 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Whittaker | M | 63 | 9.90 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| David Strelec | F | 97 | 7.20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Dael Fry | D | 34 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Matt Targett | D | 52 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 51 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Conway | F | 34 | 8.90 | 2 | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Watford — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egil Selvik | G | 97 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 5.60 | — | 1 | — | 50 | 45% | — | — | — | |
| M. Pollock | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Abankwah | D | 97 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 47 | 43% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Bola | M | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | — | — | — |
| E. Kayembe | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 44% | 4 | — | — |
| I. Louza | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 58 | 53% | 2 | 1 | — |
| N. Mendy | M | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Ngakia | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Bove | F | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Kjerrumgaard | F | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| M. Doumbia | F | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Nestory Irankunda | F | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| O. Maamma | F | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The final score was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 18% to a draw, and 11% to an Watford win.