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Championship · Regular Season - 45 April 25, 2026 13:30 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
#4 · 13 pts
5 – 1
Final score
Watford
#17 · 8 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Middlesbrough
M. Whittaker 6'
D. Strelec (ast. M. Whittaker) 45'+1
M. Whittaker 58'
T. Conway 75' (pen.)
T. Conway (ast. D. Strelec) 90'+2
48' (ast. K. Keben) J. Abankwah
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 69% win probability (draw 18%, Watford 11%). The final result was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Watford.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
3
2.22
Actual xG
0.76
2
Saves
4
56%
Possession
44%
6
Corners
3
10
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Whittaker
6'
⚽D. Strelec · ast. M. Whittaker
45'+1
↕ A. Bangura / M. Targett
46'
48'
ast. K. Keben · J. Abankwah⚽
⚽M. Whittaker
58'
62'
O. Maamma / J. Ngakia ↕
62'
M. Doumbia / E. Bove ↕
63'
N. Irankunda / L. Kjerrumgaard ↕
63'
J. Grieves / N. Mendy ↕
↕ M. Whittaker / T. Conway
63'
↕ A. Malanda / D. Fry
63'
↕ S. Hansen / L. Castledine
64'
74'
J. Abankwah
⚽T. Conway (pen.)
75'
82'
T. Ince / M. Bola ↕
↕ J. Sarmiento / S. Silvera
83'
85'
I. Louza
A. Morris
85'
⚽T. Conway · ast. D. Strelec
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
69.3%
Middlesbrough ←
18.78%
X
11.92%
Watford
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 69.3% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
2.21
2.22
+0.01
Watford
0.71
0.76
+0.05
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (2.22 vs 0.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 West Ham West Ham 7 14
2 Swansea Swansea 7 14
3 West Brom West Brom 7 14
4 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 6 13
5 QPR QPR 7 12
6 Charlton Charlton 7 12
7 Southampton Southampton 7 10
8 Birmingham Birmingham 7 10
9 Stoke City Stoke City 7 10
10 Bristol City Bristol City 6 10
11 Norwich Norwich 7 9
12 Millwall Millwall 6 9
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 6 9
14 Wolves Wolves 5 8
15 Blackburn Blackburn 7 8
16 Lincoln Lincoln 6 8
17 Watford Watford 7 8
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 6 7
19 Wrexham Wrexham 7 7
20 Bolton Bolton 7 7
21 Cardiff Cardiff 7 4
22 Derby Derby 7 4
23 Preston Preston 7 3
24 Burnley Burnley 7 3
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
31
G 6.20
24
A. Bangura 45' D 6.90
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda 63' D 6.90
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling D 7.20
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain D 6.90
18 A. Morris A. Morris M 6.70
14 A. Gilbert A. Gilbert M 7.00
27 S. Hansen S. Hansen 64' M 6.30
45 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 83' M 6.30
11 M. Whittaker M. Whittaker 2 ⚽ 1 👟 63' M 9.90
13 D. Strelec D. Strelec 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.20
Bench
16 A. Browne A. Browne M
6 D. Fry D. Fry 34' D 6.60
3 M. Targett M. Targett 52' D 7.70
9 T. Conway T. Conway 2 ⚽ 34' F 8.90
Watford Watford 3-5-2
1 E. Selvik E. Selvik G 5.60
4
1 👟 D 5.60
6 M. Pollock M. Pollock D 6.20
25 J. Abankwah J. Abankwah 1 ⚽ D 6.90
16 Marc Bola Marc Bola 82' M 6.30
39 E. Kayembe E. Kayembe M 6.90
10 I. Louza I. Louza M 6.70
23 N. Mendy N. Mendy 63' M 6.20
2
J. Ngakia 62' M 6.30
15 E. Bove E. Bove 62' F 6.30
9 L. Kjerrumgaard L. Kjerrumgaard 63' F 6.30
Bench
8 G. Chakvetadze G. Chakvetadze M
20 M. Doumbia M. Doumbia 35' F 6.30
66 N. Irankunda N. Irankunda 34' F 6.50
42 O. Maamma O. Maamma 35' F 6.30
3 Saba Goglichidze Saba Goglichidze D
Best on the pitch
M. Whittaker
M. Whittaker
M · Middlesbrough
9.90
2 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 25 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
8.90
2 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
M. Targett
M. Targett
D · Middlesbrough
7.70
· 51 pass
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 shots · 78 pass
D. Strelec
D. Strelec
F · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 14 pass
A. Gilbert
A. Gilbert
M · Middlesbrough
7.00
1 shots · 46 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 97 6.20 — — — 21 14% — — —
A. Bangura D 45 6.90 — — — 31 29% — — —
A. Malanda D 63 6.90 — — — 62 56% 1 — —
L. Ayling D 97 7.20 — — 1 78 73% 2 — —
C. Brittain D 97 6.90 — — 1 61 52% 2 — —
A. Morris M 97 6.70 — — 1 69 63% 1 1 —
A. Gilbert M 97 7.00 — — 1 46 39% 1 — —
S. Hansen M 64 6.30 — — 1 17 14% — — —
J. Sarmiento M 83 6.30 — — — 25 22% 1 — —
M. Whittaker M 63 9.90 2 1 3 25 21% 1 — —
D. Strelec F 97 7.20 1 1 2 14 9% — — —
D. Fry D 34 6.60 — — — 26 25% — — —
M. Targett D 52 7.70 — — — 51 47% 1 — —
T. Conway F 34 8.90 2 — 2 8 7% — — —
Watford Watford — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Selvik G 97 5.60 — — — 21 15% — — —
D 97 5.60 — 1 — 50 45% — — —
M. Pollock D 97 6.20 — — — 42 39% 1 — —
J. Abankwah D 97 6.90 1 — 2 47 43% 1 1 —
Marc Bola M 82 6.30 — — — 34 29% — — —
E. Kayembe M 97 6.90 — — 1 53 44% 4 — —
I. Louza M 97 6.70 — — 3 58 53% 2 1 —
N. Mendy M 63 6.20 — — — 20 15% 2 — —
J. Ngakia M 62 6.30 — — — 25 21% 2 — —
E. Bove F 62 6.30 — — — 19 13% 1 — —
L. Kjerrumgaard F 63 6.30 — — 3 9 7% — — —
M. Doumbia F 35 6.30 — — — 12 11% 1 — —
N. Irankunda F 34 6.50 — — — 11 7% — — —
O. Maamma F 35 6.30 — — — 9 8% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The final score was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 18% to a draw, and 11% to an Watford win.