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Championship · Regular Season - 45 April 25, 2026 13:30 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
#1 · 25 pts
5 – 1
Final score
Watford
#21 · 11 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Middlesbrough
M. Whittaker 6'
D. Strelec (ast. M. Whittaker) 45'+1
M. Whittaker 58'
T. Conway 75' (pen.)
T. Conway (ast. D. Strelec) 90'+2
48' (ast. K. Keben) J. Abankwah
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 69% win probability (draw 18%, Watford 11%). The final result was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Watford.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
3
2.22
Actual xG
0.76
2
Saves
4
56%
Possession
44%
6
Corners
3
10
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Whittaker
6'
⚽D. Strelec · ast. M. Whittaker
45'+1
↕ A. Bangura / M. Targett
46'
48'
ast. K. Keben · J. Abankwah⚽
⚽M. Whittaker
58'
62'
O. Maamma / J. Ngakia ↕
62'
M. Doumbia / E. Bove ↕
63'
N. Irankunda / L. Kjerrumgaard ↕
63'
J. Grieves / N. Mendy ↕
↕ M. Whittaker / T. Conway
63'
↕ A. Malanda / D. Fry
63'
↕ S. Hansen / L. Castledine
64'
74'
J. Abankwah
⚽T. Conway (pen.)
75'
82'
T. Ince / M. Bola ↕
↕ J. Sarmiento / S. Silvera
83'
85'
I. Louza
A. Morris
85'
⚽T. Conway · ast. D. Strelec
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
69.3%
Middlesbrough ←
18.78%
X
11.92%
Watford
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 69.3% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
2.21
2.22
+0.01
Watford
0.71
0.76
+0.05
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (2.22 vs 0.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
31
G 6.20
24 A. Bangura A. Bangura 45' D 6.90
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda 63' D 6.90
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling D 7.20
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain D 6.90
18 A. Morris A. Morris M 6.70
14 A. Gilbert A. Gilbert M 7.00
27 Sontje Hansen Sontje Hansen 64' M 6.30
45 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 83' M 6.30
11 M. Whittaker M. Whittaker 2 ⚽ 1 👟 63' M 9.90
13 D. Strelec D. Strelec 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.20
Bench
16 A. Browne A. Browne M
6 D. Fry D. Fry 34' D 6.60
3 M. Targett M. Targett 52' D 7.70
9 T. Conway T. Conway 2 ⚽ 34' F 8.90
Watford Watford 3-5-2
1 E. Selvik E. Selvik G 5.60
4
1 👟 D 5.60
6 M. Pollock M. Pollock D 6.20
25 J. Abankwah J. Abankwah 1 ⚽ D 6.90
16 M. Bola M. Bola 82' M 6.30
39 E. Kayembe E. Kayembe M 6.90
10 I. Louza I. Louza M 6.70
23 N. Mendy N. Mendy 63' M 6.20
2
J. Ngakia 62' M 6.30
15 E. Bove E. Bove 62' F 6.30
9 L. Kjerrumgaard L. Kjerrumgaard 63' F 6.30
Bench
8 G. Chakvetadze G. Chakvetadze M
20 M. Doumbia M. Doumbia 35' F 6.30
66 N. Irankunda N. Irankunda 34' F 6.50
42 O. Maamma O. Maamma 35' F 6.30
3 S. Goglichidze S. Goglichidze D
Best on the pitch
M. Whittaker
M. Whittaker
M · Middlesbrough
9.90
2 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 25 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
8.90
2 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
M. Targett
M. Targett
D · Middlesbrough
7.70
· 51 pass
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 shots · 78 pass
D. Strelec
D. Strelec
F · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 14 pass
A. Gilbert
A. Gilbert
M · Middlesbrough
7.00
1 shots · 46 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 97 6.20 — — — 21 14% — — —
A. Bangura D 45 6.90 — — — 31 29% — — —
A. Malanda D 63 6.90 — — — 62 56% 1 — —
L. Ayling D 97 7.20 — — 1 78 73% 2 — —
C. Brittain D 97 6.90 — — 1 61 52% 2 — —
A. Morris M 97 6.70 — — 1 69 63% 1 1 —
A. Gilbert M 97 7.00 — — 1 46 39% 1 — —
Sontje Hansen M 64 6.30 — — 1 17 14% — — —
J. Sarmiento M 83 6.30 — — — 25 22% 1 — —
M. Whittaker M 63 9.90 2 1 3 25 21% 1 — —
D. Strelec F 97 7.20 1 1 2 14 9% — — —
D. Fry D 34 6.60 — — — 26 25% — — —
M. Targett D 52 7.70 — — — 51 47% 1 — —
T. Conway F 34 8.90 2 — 2 8 7% — — —
Watford Watford — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Selvik G 97 5.60 — — — 21 15% — — —
D 97 5.60 — 1 — 50 45% — — —
M. Pollock D 97 6.20 — — — 42 39% 1 — —
J. Abankwah D 97 6.90 1 — 2 47 43% 1 1 —
M. Bola M 82 6.30 — — — 34 29% — — —
E. Kayembe M 97 6.90 — — 1 53 44% 4 — —
I. Louza M 97 6.70 — — 3 58 53% 2 1 —
N. Mendy M 63 6.20 — — — 20 15% 2 — —
J. Ngakia M 62 6.30 — — — 25 21% 2 — —
E. Bove F 62 6.30 — — — 19 13% 1 — —
L. Kjerrumgaard F 63 6.30 — — 3 9 7% — — —
M. Doumbia F 35 6.30 — — — 12 11% 1 — —
N. Irankunda F 34 6.50 — — — 11 7% — — —
O. Maamma F 35 6.30 — — — 9 8% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The final score was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 18% to a draw, and 11% to an Watford win.