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Championship · Regular Season - 45 April 25, 2026 13:30
Middlesbrough
#5 · 80 pts
5 – 1
Final score
Watford
#16 · 57 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Middlesbrough
M. Whittaker 6'
D. Strelec (ast. M. Whittaker) 45'+1
M. Whittaker 58'
T. Conway 75' (pen.)
T. Conway (ast. D. Strelec) 90'+2
48' (ast. K. Keben) J. Abankwah

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 69% win probability (draw 18%, Watford 11%). The final result was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Watford.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
3
2.22
Actual xG
0.76
2
Saves
4
56%
Possession
44%
6
Corners
3
10
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Whittaker
6'
⚽D. Strelec · ast. M. Whittaker
45'+1
↕ A. Bangura / M. Targett
46'
48'
ast. K. Keben · J. Abankwah⚽
⚽M. Whittaker
58'
62'
O. Maamma / J. Ngakia ↕
62'
M. Doumbia / E. Bove ↕
63'
N. Irankunda / L. Kjerrumgaard ↕
63'
J. Grieves / N. Mendy ↕
↕ M. Whittaker / T. Conway
63'
↕ A. Malanda / D. Fry
63'
↕ S. Hansen / L. Castledine
64'
74'
J. Abankwah
⚽T. Conway (pen.)
75'
82'
T. Ince / M. Bola ↕
↕ J. Sarmiento / S. Silvera
83'
85'
I. Louza
A. Morris
85'
⚽T. Conway · ast. D. Strelec
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
69.3%
Middlesbrough ←
18.78%
X
11.92%
Watford
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 69.3% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Middlesbrough
2.21
2.22
+0.01
Watford
0.71
0.76
+0.05
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (2.22 vs 0.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
31
G 6.20
24
A. Bangura 45' D 6.90
29 Adilson Malanda Adilson Malanda 63' D 6.90
12 Luke Ayling Luke Ayling D 7.20
2 Callum Brittain Callum Brittain D 6.90
18 Aidan Morris Aidan Morris M 6.70
14 Alexander Gilbert Alexander Gilbert M 7.00
27 Sontje Hansen Sontje Hansen 64' M 6.30
45 Jeremy Sarmiento Jeremy Sarmiento 83' M 6.30
11 M. Whittaker M. Whittaker 2 ⚽ 1 👟 63' M 9.90
13 David Strelec David Strelec 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.20
Bench
16 Alan Browne Alan Browne M
6 Dael Fry Dael Fry 34' D 6.60
3 Matt Targett Matt Targett 52' D 7.70
9 T. Conway T. Conway 2 ⚽ 34' F 8.90
Watford Watford 3-5-2
1
E. Selvik G 5.60
4
1 👟 D 5.60
6
M. Pollock D 6.20
25
J. Abankwah 1 ⚽ D 6.90
16
M. Bola 82' M 6.30
39 E. Kayembe E. Kayembe M 6.90
10 I. Louza I. Louza M 6.70
23
N. Mendy 63' M 6.20
2
J. Ngakia 62' M 6.30
15
E. Bove 62' F 6.30
9
L. Kjerrumgaard 63' F 6.30
Bench
8
G. Chakvetadze M
20
M. Doumbia 35' F 6.30
66 N. Irankunda N. Irankunda 34' F 6.50
42
O. Maamma 35' F 6.30
3
Saba Goglichidze D
Best on the pitch
M. Whittaker
M. Whittaker
M · Middlesbrough
9.90
2 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 25 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
8.90
2 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
Matt Targett
Matt Targett
D · Middlesbrough
7.70
· 51 pass
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 shots · 78 pass
David Strelec
David Strelec
F · Middlesbrough
7.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 14 pass
Alexander Gilbert
Alexander Gilbert
M · Middlesbrough
7.00
1 shots · 46 pass
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 97 6.20 — — — 21 14% — — —
A. Bangura D 45 6.90 — — — 31 29% — — —
Adilson Malanda D 63 6.90 — — — 62 56% 1 — —
Luke Ayling D 97 7.20 — — 1 78 73% 2 — —
Callum Brittain D 97 6.90 — — 1 61 52% 2 — —
Aidan Morris M 97 6.70 — — 1 69 63% 1 1 —
Alexander Gilbert M 97 7.00 — — 1 46 39% 1 — —
Sontje Hansen M 64 6.30 — — 1 17 14% — — —
Jeremy Sarmiento M 83 6.30 — — — 25 22% 1 — —
M. Whittaker M 63 9.90 2 1 3 25 21% 1 — —
David Strelec F 97 7.20 1 1 2 14 9% — — —
Dael Fry D 34 6.60 — — — 26 25% — — —
Matt Targett D 52 7.70 — — — 51 47% 1 — —
T. Conway F 34 8.90 2 — 2 8 7% — — —
Watford Watford — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Selvik G 97 5.60 — — — 21 15% — — —
D 97 5.60 — 1 — 50 45% — — —
M. Pollock D 97 6.20 — — — 42 39% 1 — —
J. Abankwah D 97 6.90 1 — 2 47 43% 1 1 —
M. Bola M 82 6.30 — — — 34 29% — — —
E. Kayembe M 97 6.90 — — 1 53 44% 4 — —
I. Louza M 97 6.70 — — 3 58 53% 2 1 —
N. Mendy M 63 6.20 — — — 20 15% 2 — —
J. Ngakia M 62 6.30 — — — 25 21% 2 — —
E. Bove F 62 6.30 — — — 19 13% 1 — —
L. Kjerrumgaard F 63 6.30 — — 3 9 7% — — —
M. Doumbia F 35 6.30 — — — 12 11% 1 — —
N. Irankunda F 34 6.50 — — — 11 7% — — —
O. Maamma F 35 6.30 — — — 9 8% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The final score was Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford.
What did the model predict before Middlesbrough vs Watford?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Middlesbrough win, 18% to a draw, and 11% to an Watford win.