Millonarios 4–1 Jaguares — pre-match prediction — Liga BetPlay — October 18, 2026

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Liga BetPlay · Clausura - 15 October 18, 2026 01:00 Estadio El Campin, Bogota

Millonarios

#5 · 26 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Jaguares

#16 · 18 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Millonarios

Andrey Estupinan (ast. Leonardo Castro) 34'

Leonardo Castro (ast. Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera) 40'

Andrey Estupinan (ast. Leonardo Castro) 63'

Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera (ast. Juan Cuadrado) 70'

45'+1 Cristian Alvarez

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millonarios a 89% win probability (draw 6%, Jaguares 4%). The final result was Millonarios 4–1 Jaguares. In 1 previous meetings, Millonarios have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Jaguares.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.88

Actual xG

0.23

Saves

68%

Possession

32%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Andrey Estupinan · ast. Leonardo Castro

34'

⚽Leonardo Castro · ast. Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera

40'

42'

Wilfrido De la Rosa

Sergio Mosquera

43'

45'+1

Cristian Alvarez⚽

45'+5

Jonathan Lovera

David Silva

45'

Jerson Malagon / Juan Esteban Franco ↕

45'

Darwin Lopez / Wilfrido De la Rosa ↕

Andrey Estupinan

61'

⚽Andrey Estupinan · ast. Leonardo Castro

63'

66'

Johan Beltrán / Cristian Alvarez ↕

69'

Jerson Malagon

⚽Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera · ast. Juan Cuadrado

70'

Stiven Vega

73'

75'

Andrés Rentería

77'

Santiago Cubides / Jonathan Lovera ↕

↕ Jaine Barreiro / Andrés Llinás

78'

↕ Leonardo Castro / Rodrigo Contreras

78'

Jose Yanez / Royscer Rafael Colpa Bolano ↕

↕ Andrey Estupinan / Leonai·Souza de Almeida

78'

Juan Cuadrado

80'

↕ Juan Cuadrado / Julian Angulo

86'

↕ David Silva / Yeiner Matias Romero Pino

89'

Leonai·Souza de Almeida

90'+1

Sebastián Valencia

90'

Pre-match prediction

89.12%

Millonarios ←

6.23%

4.65%

Jaguares

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Millonarios) 89.12% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Millonarios

4.37

2.88

-1.49

Jaguares

0.77

0.23

-0.54

Millonarios dominated by xG (2.88 vs 0.23). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	16	35
2	America de Cali	16	34
3	Deportivo Cali	16	30
4	Santa Fe	16	28
5	Millonarios	16	26
6	Bucaramanga	15	25
7	Once Caldas	17	24
8	Independiente Medellin	16	23
9	Águilas Doradas	16	22
10	Cucuta	16	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	20
13	Alianza Valledupar	16	18
14	Llaneros	16	17
15	Junior	16	16
16	Chico	16	16
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	14
18	Jaguares	15	13
19	Fortaleza FC	16	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	15	12

Lineups

Millonarios 4-4-2

Javier Burrai G 6.29

Sebastián Valencia Isaza D 6.23

Sergio Mosquera D 6.37

Stiven Barreiro 78' D 6.43

Samuel Martín D 7.05

Juan Cuadrado 1 👟 86' M 7.33

David Macalister Silva 89' M 6.69

Stiven Vega M 6.58

Daniel Ruiz 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.97

A. Estupiñán 2 ⚽ 78' F 8.44

L. Castro 1 ⚽ 2 👟 78' F 9.84

Bench

Andrés Llinás 12' D 6.28

Danovis Banguero D 0.00

James Aguirre G 0.00

Julian Angulo 4' F 6.50

Leonai 12' M 6.09

R. Contreras 12' F 6.52

Sebastián del Castillo M 0.00

Jaguares 4-4-2

Franklin Mosquera G 6.67

Luis Jiménez D 5.89

Carlos Henao D 6.07

Jonathan Lovera 77' D 5.38

Juan Franco 45' D 5.91

Johar Mejía M 5.81

Rafael Bustamante M 6.44

Royscer Colpa 78' M 6.39

Wilfrido De la Rosa 45' M 5.41

Cristian Alvarez 1 ⚽ 66' F 7.85

Andrés Rentería F 6.04

Bench

Andrés Felipe Alfonso Ciprian M 0.00

Darwin Lopez 45' F 6.29

Diego Martínez G 0.00

Diego Zuluaga M 0.00

Jerson Malagón 45' D 5.73

Johan Beltrán 24' F 6.46

Ronal Pérez M 0.00

Santiago Cubides 13' F 6.29

Best on the pitch

L. Castro

F · Millonarios

9.84

1 ⚽ 2 👟

5 shots · 17 pass

Daniel Ruiz

M · Millonarios

8.97

1 ⚽ 1 👟

4 shots · 39 pass

A. Estupiñán

F · Millonarios

8.44

2 ⚽

3 shots · 24 pass

Cristian Alvarez

F · Jaguares

7.85

1 ⚽

1 shots · 27 pass

Juan Cuadrado

M · Millonarios

7.33

1 👟

3 shots · 34 pass

Samuel Martín

D · Millonarios

7.05

· 27 pass

Millonarios — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Javier Burrai	G	90	6.29	—	—	0	24	13%	0	—	—
Sebastián Valencia Isaza	D	90	6.23	—	—	2	39	33%	2	1	—
Sergio Mosquera	D	90	6.37	—	—	1	22	20%	0	1	—
Stiven Barreiro	D	78	6.43	—	—	2	30	23%	0	—	—
Samuel Martín	D	90	7.05	—	—	0	27	25%	2	—	—
Juan Cuadrado	M	86	7.33	—	1	3	34	31%	2	1	—
David Macalister Silva	M	89	6.69	—	—	0	56	50%	0	1	—
Stiven Vega	M	90	6.58	—	—	0	43	40%	1	1	—
Daniel Ruiz	M	90	8.97	1	1	4	39	30%	1	—	—
A. Estupiñán	F	78	8.44	2	—	3	24	16%	3	1	—
L. Castro	F	78	9.84	1	2	5	17	13%	1	—	—
Andrés Llinás	D	12	6.28	—	—	0	6	4%	0	—	—
Julian Angulo	F	4	6.50	—	—	0	1	0%	0	—	—
Leonai	M	12	6.09	—	—	0	9	7%	0	1	—
R. Contreras	F	12	6.52	—	—	0	5	4%	0	—	—

Jaguares — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Franklin Mosquera	G	90	6.67	—	—	0	30	23%	0	—	—
Luis Jiménez	D	90	5.89	—	—	0	29	25%	1	—	—
Carlos Henao	D	90	6.07	—	—	1	43	34%	0	—	—
Jonathan Lovera	D	77	5.38	—	—	0	29	23%	2	1	—
Juan Franco	D	45	5.91	—	—	0	15	12%	2	—	—
Johar Mejía	M	90	5.81	—	—	0	11	7%	1	—	—
Rafael Bustamante	M	90	6.44	—	—	0	60	54%	2	—	—
Royscer Colpa	M	78	6.39	—	—	1	35	31%	5	—	—
Wilfrido De la Rosa	M	45	5.41	—	—	0	5	4%	0	1	—
Cristian Alvarez	F	66	7.85	1	—	1	27	21%	3	—	—
Andrés Rentería	F	90	6.04	—	—	0	15	11%	0	1	—
Darwin Lopez	F	45	6.29	—	—	0	11	9%	0	—	—
Jerson Malagón	D	45	5.73	—	—	0	29	25%	0	1	—
Johan Beltrán	F	24	6.46	—	—	0	17	16%	1	—	—
Santiago Cubides	F	13	6.29	—	—	0	7	7%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Jaguares?

The final score was Millonarios 4–1 Jaguares.

What did the model predict before Millonarios vs Jaguares?

The model assigned 89% probability to a Millonarios win, 6% to a draw, and 4% to an Jaguares win.