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League One · Regular Season - 11 October 17, 2026 13:30 Stadium MK, Milton Keynes
Milton Keynes Dons
#14 · 15 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Luton
#8 · 20 pts
Alex Gilbey 25'
Aaron Collins 79' (pen.)
70' (ast. Tudor Mendel-Idowu) Jordan Clark
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Luton a 43% win probability (draw 29%, Milton Keynes Dons 26%). The final result was Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Luton.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
25
3
Shots on target
5
1.53
Actual xG
1.60
5
Saves
1
38%
Possession
62%
5
Corners
6
20
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽Alex Gilbey
25'
Ryan Wintle
57'
↕ ibrahim fullah / Ben Wiles
59'
59'
Callum Marshall / Nahki Wells ↕
Alex Gilbey
64'
70'
ast. Tudor Mendel-Idowu · Jordan Clark⚽
75'
E. Lawrence / Jamie Donley ↕
⚽Aaron Collins (pen.)
79'
83'
Devante Cole / Kasey Palmer ↕
84'
Isaiah Jones / Mads Juel Andersen ↕
84'
Jake Richards / Tudor Mendel-Idowu ↕
↕ Samuel Silvera / Cohen Bramall
89'
↕ Aaron Collins / Gethin Jones
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
26.9%
Milton ←
29.54%
X
43.56%
Luton
we assigned to the actual result (Milton Keynes Dons) 26.9% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Milton
0.81
1.53
+0.72
Luton
1.54
1.60
+0.06
xG dominance was balanced (1.53 – 1.60). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Huddersfield Huddersfield 12 25
2 Stockport County Stockport County 13 23
3 Oxford United Oxford United 11 22
4 Bradford Bradford 12 22
5 Plymouth Plymouth 13 22
6 Reading Reading 12 21
7 Cambridge United Cambridge United 13 21
8 Luton Luton 12 20
9 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 12 19
10 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 11 18
11 Leicester Leicester 12 18
12 Burton Albion Burton Albion 13 17
13 Stevenage Stevenage 11 15
14 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 12 15
15 Wycombe Wycombe 12 15
16 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 12 14
17 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 12 13
18 Doncaster Doncaster 12 12
19 Notts County Notts County 11 11
20 Blackpool Blackpool 11 11
21 Peterborough Peterborough 12 10
22 Bromley Bromley 12 9
23 Barnsley Barnsley 11 8
24 Wigan Wigan 12 7
Lineups
Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2
23 W. Dennis W. Dennis G 7.04
32 J. Sanders J. Sanders D 6.23
5 C. Goode C. Goode D 6.09
21 M. Ekpiteta M. Ekpiteta D 6.24
24 R. Wintle R. Wintle M 6.44
20 Elijah Xavier Campbell Elijah Xavier Campbell M 6.39
8 A. Gilbey A. Gilbey 1 ⚽ M 7.02
22 I. Fullah I. Fullah 59' M 6.46
17 S. Silvera S. Silvera 89' M 6.02
10 A. Collins A. Collins 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.65
9 S. Nombe S. Nombe F 6.78
Bench
26 B. Wiles B. Wiles 31' F 6.35
15 C. Bramall C. Bramall 1' D 6.48
4 D. Barlaser D. Barlaser M 0.00
7 D. Crowley D. Crowley M 0.00
2 G. Jones G. Jones 1' D 0.00
28 J. Matete J. Matete M 0.00
51 S. Stacey S. Stacey G 0.00
Luton Luton 4-1-4-1
1 J. Shea J. Shea G 5.70
3 K. Naismith K. Naismith D 5.94
6 G. Johnston G. Johnston D 6.66
5 M. Andersen M. Andersen 84' D 6.00
2 H. Odoffin H. Odoffin D 6.77
8 L. Walsh L. Walsh M 6.57
10 J. Donley J. Donley 75' M 6.87
45 K. Palmer K. Palmer 83' M 5.93
18 J. Clark J. Clark 1 ⚽ M 7.86
17 T. Mendel-Idowu T. Mendel-Idowu 1 👟 84' M 6.07
21 N. Wells N. Wells 59' F 6.43
Bench
9 C. Marshall C. Marshall 31' F 6.63
44 D. Cole D. Cole 7' F 6.47
11 Emilio Lawrence Emilio Lawrence 15' F 6.32
25 I. Jones I. Jones 6' F 6.45
12 J. Johnson J. Johnson D 0.00
24 Joshua Keeley Joshua Keeley G 0.00
27 J. Richards J. Richards 6' M 6.11
Best on the pitch
J. Clark
J. Clark
M · Luton
7.86
1 ⚽
4 shots · 41 pass
A. Collins
A. Collins
F · Milton
7.65
1 ⚽
3 shots · 16 pass
W. Dennis
W. Dennis
G · Milton
7.04
· 32 pass
A. Gilbey
A. Gilbey
M · Milton
7.02
1 ⚽
2 shots · 29 pass
J. Donley
J. Donley
M · Luton
6.87
4 shots · 32 pass
S. Nombe
S. Nombe
F · Milton
6.78
2 shots · 15 pass
Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
W. Dennis G 90 7.04 — — 0 32 7% 0 — —
J. Sanders D 90 6.23 — — 0 22 11% 3 — —
C. Goode D 90 6.09 — — 0 26 13% 0 — —
M. Ekpiteta D 90 6.24 — — 0 31 15% 3 — —
R. Wintle M 90 6.44 — — 0 36 25% 3 1 —
Elijah Xavier Campbell M 90 6.39 — — 1 14 7% 1 — —
A. Gilbey M 90 7.02 1 — 2 29 18% 4 1 —
I. Fullah M 59 6.46 — — 3 15 13% 1 — —
S. Silvera M 89 6.02 — — 0 21 14% 3 — —
A. Collins F 89 7.65 1 — 3 16 10% 1 — —
S. Nombe F 90 6.78 — — 2 15 5% 1 — —
B. Wiles F 31 6.35 — — 0 8 8% 0 — —
C. Bramall D 1 6.48 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
G. Jones D 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Luton Luton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Shea G 90 5.70 — — 0 23 13% 0 — —
K. Naismith D 90 5.94 — — 0 53 34% 3 — —
G. Johnston D 90 6.66 — — 1 50 38% 0 — —
M. Andersen D 84 6.00 — — 1 42 32% 1 — —
H. Odoffin D 90 6.77 — — 1 50 37% 4 — —
L. Walsh M 90 6.57 — — 1 69 61% 2 — —
J. Donley M 75 6.87 — — 4 32 29% 1 — —
K. Palmer M 83 5.93 — — 3 25 16% 0 — —
J. Clark M 90 7.86 1 — 4 41 32% 2 — —
T. Mendel-Idowu M 84 6.07 — 1 4 22 15% 0 — —
N. Wells F 59 6.43 — — 0 12 11% 1 — —
C. Marshall F 31 6.63 — — 3 10 7% 0 — —
D. Cole F 7 6.47 — — 1 0 0% 0 — —
Emilio Lawrence F 15 6.32 — — 2 7 6% 0 — —
I. Jones F 6 6.45 — — 0 5 4% 0 — —
J. Richards M 6 6.11 — — 0 6 5% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton?
The final score was Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Luton.
What did the model predict before Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton?
The model assigned 26% probability to a Milton Keynes Dons win, 29% to a draw, and 43% to an Luton win.