Minnesota United FC 2–2 Austin — pre-match prediction — MLS — May 11, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 12 May 11, 2026 01:00

Minnesota United FC

#9 · 22 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Austin

#14 · 17 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Minnesota United FC, result Draw

A. Markanich (ast. J. Rodriguez) 69'

J. Pereyra (ast. J. Rodriguez) 77'

(pen.) 14' M. Uzuni

79' (ast. F. Torres) C. Ramirez

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Minnesota United FC a 62% win probability (draw 20%, Austin 17%). The final result was Minnesota United FC 2–2 Austin. In 1 previous meetings, Minnesota United FC have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Austin.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.20

Actual xG

1.32

Saves

55%

Possession

45%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

14'

(pen.) M. Uzuni⚽

⚽K. Yeboah (missed pen.)

21'

22'

⚽K. Yeboah (missed pen.)

27'

J. Diaz

29'

N. Triantis

40'

T. Chancalay

42'

44'

J. Bell / B. Hines-Ike ↕

45'+2

F. Torres

J. Pereyra

45'+11

45'+12

J. Gallagher

O. Gene

47'

↕ T. Chancalay / J. Rodriguez

63'

↕ N. Triantis / W. Trapp

63'

⚽A. Markanich · ast. J. Rodriguez

69'

70'

D. Pereira / I. Sanchez ↕

70'

O. Wolff / J. Gallagher ↕

⚽J. Pereyra · ast. J. Rodriguez

77'

79'

ast. F. Torres · C. Ramirez⚽

↕ D. Padelford / M. Boxall

82'

84'

B. Vazquez / C. Ramirez ↕

↕ O. Gene / M. Gonzalez

88'

90'+3

Z. Kolmanic / J. Bell ↕

Pre-match prediction

62.27%

Minnesota

20.64%

X ←

17.09%

Austin

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 20.64% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Minnesota

2.80

2.20

-0.59

Austin

0.90

1.32

+0.43

Minnesota United FC dominated by xG (2.20 vs 1.32). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	15	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	16	32
3	Los Angeles FC	17	30
4	Real Salt Lake	15	26
5	FC Dallas	16	26
6	Seattle Sounders	15	24
7	Houston Dynamo	15	23
8	St. Louis City	16	22
9	Minnesota United FC	16	22
10	Los Angeles Galaxy	17	20
11	Colorado Rapids	16	19
12	Portland Timbers	16	18
13	San Diego	16	17
14	Austin	16	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	16	14

Lineups

Minnesota United FC 3-4-2-1

Drake Callender G 6.70

Nicolás Romero D 6.30

Morris Duggan D 6.50

Jefferson Díaz D 7.30

Devin Padelford 82' M 6.90

Owen Gene 88' M 6.70

Nectarios Triantis 63' M 6.90

Anthony Markanich 1 ⚽ M 7.90

Tomás Chancalay 63' F 6.50

Joaquín Pereyra 1 ⚽ F 9.20

Kelvin Yeboah F 5.30

Bench

Alec Smir G

D.J. Taylor D

Dominik Fitz M

J. Rodríguez 2 👟 27' M 7.70

Kieran Chandler D

Mamadou Dieng F

Mauricio González 10' F 6.50

Michael Boxall 8' D 7.00

Wil Trapp 27' M 7.00

Austin 4-2-3-1

Brad Stuver G 6.60

Guilherme Biro D 7.00

Brendan Hines-Ike 44' D 7.20

Oleksandr Svatok D 6.70

Mikkel Desler D 6.50

Ilie Sánchez 70' M 6.50

Joseph Rosales M 6.20

Jon Gallagher 70' M 5.90

Myrto Uzuni 1 ⚽ M 6.90

Facundo Torres 1 👟 M 6.60

Christian Ramirez 1 ⚽ 84' F 8.20

Bench

Besard Sabović M

Brandon Vázquez 14' F 6.50

Calvin Fodrey M

Damian Las G

Daniel Pereira 20' M 6.70

Jonathan Bell 45' D 6.30

Nicolas Dubersarsky M

Owen Wolff 20' M 6.20

Žan Kolmanič 1' D

Best on the pitch

Joaquín Pereyra

F · Minnesota

9.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 61 pass

Christian Ramirez

F · Austin

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

Anthony Markanich

M · Minnesota

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 27 pass

J. Rodríguez

M · Minnesota

7.70

2 👟

2 shots · 25 pass

Jefferson Díaz

D · Minnesota

7.30

1 shots · 80 pass

Brendan Hines-Ike

D · Austin

7.20

· 19 pass

Minnesota United FC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Drake Callender	G	90	6.70	—	—	—	15	12%	—	—	—
Nicolás Romero	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	55	50%	3	—	—
Morris Duggan	D	90	6.50	—	—	1	69	60%	—	—	—
Jefferson Díaz	D	90	7.30	—	—	1	80	69%	2	1	—
Devin Padelford	M	82	6.90	—	—	1	22	19%	1	—	—
Owen Gene	M	88	6.70	—	—	—	48	44%	1	1	—
Nectarios Triantis	M	63	6.90	—	—	1	34	26%	2	1	—
Anthony Markanich	M	90	7.90	1	—	2	27	18%	3	—	—
Tomás Chancalay	F	63	6.50	—	—	2	23	17%	2	1	—
Joaquín Pereyra	F	90	9.20	1	—	1	61	49%	—	1	—
Kelvin Yeboah	F	90	5.30	—	—	4	14	11%	—	—	—
J. Rodríguez	M	27	7.70	—	2	2	25	22%	—	—	—
Mauricio González	F	10	6.50	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
Michael Boxall	D	8	7.00	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
Wil Trapp	M	27	7.00	—	—	—	21	21%	2	—	—

Austin — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Brad Stuver	G	90	6.60	—	—	—	46	29%	—	—	—
Guilherme Biro	D	90	7.00	—	—	—	42	34%	3	—	—
Brendan Hines-Ike	D	44	7.20	—	—	—	19	16%	2	—	—
Oleksandr Svatok	D	90	6.70	—	—	—	46	41%	—	—	—
Mikkel Desler	D	90	6.50	—	—	—	33	29%	2	—	—
Ilie Sánchez	M	70	6.50	—	—	—	34	27%	—	—	—
Joseph Rosales	M	90	6.20	—	—	1	45	37%	3	—	—
Jon Gallagher	M	70	5.90	—	—	—	10	9%	—	1	—
Myrto Uzuni	M	90	6.90	1	—	5	32	22%	1	—	—
Facundo Torres	M	90	6.60	—	1	—	46	37%	—	1	—
Christian Ramirez	F	84	8.20	1	—	1	20	18%	1	—	—
Brandon Vázquez	F	14	6.50	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
Daniel Pereira	M	20	6.70	—	—	—	20	20%	1	—	—
Jonathan Bell	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	14	13%	1	—	—
Owen Wolff	M	20	6.20	—	—	—	13	11%	1	—	—
Žan Kolmanič	D	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Minnesota United FC vs Austin?

The final score was Minnesota United FC 2–2 Austin.

What did the model predict before Minnesota United FC vs Austin?

The model assigned 62% probability to a Minnesota United FC win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Austin win.