Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City — pre-match prediction — MLS — October 17, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 30 October 17, 2026 22:30 Allianz Field, Sao Paulo

Minnesota United FC

#13 · 34 pts

3 – 2

Final score

St. Louis City

#2 · 51 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction St. Louis City, result Minnesota United FC wins

Aziel Jackson (ast. Kelvin Yeboah) 49'

Kelvin Yeboah (ast. Mauricio González Carabalí) 68'

Marcus Caldeira (ast. Joaquín Pereyra) 86'

4' Rafael Navarro Leal

10' (ast. Rafael Navarro Leal) Sang-bin Jung

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 63% win probability (draw 15%, Minnesota United FC 21%). The final result was Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City. In 1 previous meetings, Minnesota United FC have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for St. Louis City.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.67

Actual xG

1.23

Saves

45%

Possession

55%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Rafael Navarro Leal⚽

10'

ast. Rafael Navarro Leal · Sang-bin Jung⚽

Aziel Jackson

24'

26'

Miguel Perez

45'

Daniel Edelman / Dante Polvara ↕

45'

Rafael Santos / Tomas Totland ↕

⚽Aziel Jackson · ast. Kelvin Yeboah

49'

51'

Sang-bin Jung

⚽Kelvin Yeboah · ast. Mauricio González Carabalí

68'

69'

Damion Downs / Simon Becher ↕

69'

Lukas MacNaughton / Sang-bin Jung ↕

↕ Mauricio González Carabalí / Marcus Caldeira

70'

↕ Aziel Jackson / Joaquín Pereyra

79'

82'

Tomas Ostrak / Mykhi Joyner ↕

⚽Marcus Caldeira · ast. Joaquín Pereyra

86'

↕ Kelvin Yeboah / Tomás Chancalay

90'+2

↕ Cherrion Valerius / Michael Boxall

90'+2

Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño

90'

Pre-match prediction

21.54%

Minnesota ←

15.38%

63.09%

St.

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Minnesota United FC) 21.54% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Minnesota

1.63

2.67

+1.04

St.

3.47

1.23

-2.24

Minnesota United FC dominated by xG (2.67 vs 1.23). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	55
2	St. Louis City	30	51
3	FC Dallas	30	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	34
12	San Diego	30	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	34
14	Austin	30	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	22

Lineups

Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2

D. Callender G 6.50

M. Duggan D 6.12

J. Díaz D 6.61

Cherrion Valerius 89' D 6.57

A. Markanich M 6.31

W. Trapp M 6.43

N. Triantis M 6.75

B. Hlongwane M 6.47

M. Gonzalez 1 👟 70' M 7.35

K. Yeboah 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' F 8.79

A. Jackson 1 ⚽ 79' F 8.20

Bench

J. Pereyra 1 👟 11' M 6.24

Kayne Rizvanovich G 0.00

K. Duncan D 0.00

Marcus Caldeira 1 ⚽ 20' F 8.03

M. Boxall 1' D 0.00

M. Malone F 0.00

N. Romero D 0.00

O. Gene M 0.00

T. Chancalay 1' F 0.00

St. Louis City 3-4-1-2

R. Bürki G 6.83

F. Fall D 6.70

T. Baumgartl D 6.67

J. Orozco D 6.48

T. Totland 45' M 5.92

M. Perez M 6.29

D. Polvara 45' M 6.04

M. Joyner 82' M 6.22

Jeong Sang-Bin 1 ⚽ 69' M 7.13

Rafael Navarro 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.67

S. Becher 69' F 6.27

Bench

A. Mățan M 0.00

B. Lundt G 0.00

C. Brunet M 0.00

C. Holse F 0.00

D. Downs 21' F 6.44

D. Edelman 45' M 6.09

L. MacNaughton 21' D 6.15

Rafael Santos 45' D 6.11

T. Ostrák 8' M 5.97

Best on the pitch

K. Yeboah

F · Minnesota

8.79

1 ⚽ 1 👟

6 shots · 19 pass

Rafael Navarro

F · St.

8.67

1 ⚽ 1 👟

4 shots · 30 pass

A. Jackson

F · Minnesota

8.20

1 ⚽

3 shots · 32 pass

Marcus Caldeira

F · Minnesota

8.03

1 ⚽

3 shots · 9 pass

M. Gonzalez

M · Minnesota

7.35

1 👟

2 shots · 22 pass

Jeong Sang-Bin

M · St.

7.13

1 ⚽

1 shots · 11 pass

Minnesota United FC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
D. Callender	G	90	6.50	—	—	0	20	9%	0	—	—
M. Duggan	D	90	6.12	—	—	0	41	31%	1	—	—
J. Díaz	D	90	6.61	—	—	0	39	33%	0	1	—
Cherrion Valerius	D	89	6.57	—	—	3	25	19%	2	—	—
A. Markanich	M	90	6.31	—	—	1	23	15%	2	—	—
W. Trapp	M	90	6.43	—	—	1	38	35%	1	—	—
N. Triantis	M	90	6.75	—	—	5	32	28%	1	—	—
B. Hlongwane	M	90	6.47	—	—	2	31	23%	2	—	—
M. Gonzalez	M	70	7.35	—	1	2	22	18%	1	—	—
K. Yeboah	F	89	8.79	1	1	6	19	14%	1	—	—
A. Jackson	F	79	8.20	1	—	3	32	29%	0	1	—
J. Pereyra	M	11	6.24	—	1	0	7	6%	0	—	—
Marcus Caldeira	F	20	8.03	1	—	3	9	6%	0	—	—
M. Boxall	D	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
T. Chancalay	F	1	0.00	—	—	1	0	0%	0	—	—

St. Louis City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
R. Bürki	G	90	6.83	—	—	0	36	27%	0	—	—
F. Fall	D	90	6.70	—	—	1	53	48%	2	—	—
T. Baumgartl	D	90	6.67	—	—	0	74	66%	3	—	—
J. Orozco	D	90	6.48	—	—	0	47	42%	4	—	—
T. Totland	M	45	5.92	—	—	1	12	11%	0	—	—
M. Perez	M	90	6.29	—	—	1	20	18%	3	1	—
D. Polvara	M	45	6.04	—	—	1	26	20%	3	—	—
M. Joyner	M	82	6.22	—	—	1	29	22%	3	—	—
Jeong Sang-Bin	M	69	7.13	1	—	1	11	7%	1	1	—
Rafael Navarro	F	90	8.67	1	1	4	30	20%	1	—	—
S. Becher	F	69	6.27	—	—	2	8	5%	0	—	—
D. Downs	F	21	6.44	—	—	1	9	8%	0	—	—
D. Edelman	M	45	6.09	—	—	0	30	25%	0	—	—
L. MacNaughton	D	21	6.15	—	—	0	17	11%	0	—	—
Rafael Santos	D	45	6.11	—	—	1	11	8%	0	—	—
T. Ostrák	M	8	5.97	—	—	1	6	6%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?

The final score was Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City.

What did the model predict before Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?

The model assigned 21% probability to a Minnesota United FC win, 15% to a draw, and 63% to an St. Louis City win.