Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 11
April 12, 2026 01:30
David Duarte
14'
(og)
(pen.)
65'
Luciano Juba
89'
M. Sanabria
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mirassol a 35% win probability (draw 28%, Bahia 35%). The final result was Mirassol 1–2 Bahia.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
8
1.16
Actual xG
1.93
6
Saves
6
42%
Possession
58%
8
Corners
4
12
Tackles
16
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
Eduardo
-5'
⚽David Duarte
(og)
14'
Reinaldo
/ Victor Luis
41'
Edson Carioca
45'+3
Andre Luis
/ Nathan Fogaca
46'
46'
Gilberto
/
Caio Alexandre
José Aldo
57'
Edson Carioca
/ Alesson
60'
Eduardo
/ Shaylon
60'
60'
Willian Jose
/
Everaldo
60'
Ademir
/
Erick Pulga
Victor Luis
61'
65'
(pen.)
Luciano Juba⚽
69'
M. Sanabria
/
Jose Aldo
/ Gabriel Pires
76'
79'
Jean Lucas
80'
Rodrigo
/
Everton Ribeiro
89'
M. Sanabria⚽
Pre-match prediction
35.38%
Mirassol
28.88%
X
35.75%
Bahia ←
we assigned to the actual result (Bahia)
35.75%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.36
1.16
-0.2
1.32
1.93
+0.61
Bahia dominated by xG (1.93 vs 1.16).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Walter
G
Walter
G
6
Reinaldo
41'
D
Reinaldo
41'
D
2
Lucas Oliveira
D
Lucas Oliveira
D
34
João Victor
D
João Victor
D
32
Igor Formiga
D
Igor Formiga
D
25
Neto Moura
M
Neto Moura
M
21
José Aldo
76'
M
José Aldo
76'
M
95
Edson Carioca
60'
M
Edson Carioca
60'
M
33
Eduardo
60'
M
Eduardo
60'
M
11
Negueba
M
99
André Luis
45'
F
André Luis
45'
F
Bench
77
Alesson
47'
F
Alesson
47'
F
23
Alex Muralha
G
Alex Muralha
G
8
Denilson
M
Denilson
M
17
Everton Galdino
F
Everton Galdino
F
9
Nathan Fogaça
62'
F
Nathan Fogaça
62'
F
7
Shaylon
47'
M
Shaylon
47'
M
29
Tiquinho Soares
F
Tiquinho Soares
F
12
Victor Luis
66'
D
Victor Luis
66'
D
22
G
46
Luciano Juba
1 ⚽
D
Luciano Juba
1 ⚽
D
21
Santiago Ramos Mingo
D
Santiago Ramos Mingo
D
33
David Duarte
1 ⚽
D
David Duarte
1 ⚽
D
5
N. Acevedo
D
N. Acevedo
D
6
Jean Lucas
M
Jean Lucas
M
8
Caio Alexandre
45'
M
Caio Alexandre
45'
M
10
Éverton Ribeiro
80'
M
Éverton Ribeiro
80'
M
16
Erick Pulga
60'
F
Erick Pulga
60'
F
27
Everaldo
60'
F
Everaldo
60'
F
99
Cristian Olivera
F
Cristian Olivera
F
Bench
14
Erick
M
Erick
M
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Gabriel Xavier
D
2
Gilberto
62'
D
Gilberto
62'
D
23
Mateo Sanabria
1 ⚽
38'
F
Mateo Sanabria
1 ⚽
38'
F
15
Michel Araújo
M
Michel Araújo
M
12
Willian José
47'
F
Willian José
47'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Bahia
8.30
· 46 pass
Éverton Ribeiro
M · Bahia
7.90
1 shots
· 51 pass
Mateo Sanabria
F · Bahia
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
Walter
G · Mirassol
7.20
· 17 pass
Lucas Oliveira
D · Mirassol
7.20
· 33 pass
Neto Moura
M · Mirassol
7.20
· 46 pass
Mirassol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter | G | 107 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo | D | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 107 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| João Victor | D | 107 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Igor Formiga | D | 107 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 107 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 46 | 43% | 5 | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Edson Carioca | M | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Eduardo | M | 60 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | — | 1 |
| Negueba | M | 107 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 28% | — | — | — |
| André Luis | F | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Alesson | F | 47 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 47 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | 66 | 5.60 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | 1 | — |
Bahia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 107 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 46 | 40% | — | — | — | |
| Luciano Juba | D | 107 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 62 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 107 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 61 | 57% | 1 | — | — |
| David Duarte | D | 107 | 7.00 | 1 | — | — | 61 | 57% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Acevedo | D | 107 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 84 | 68% | 5 | — | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 107 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 80 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 60 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 107 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 62 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 38 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 47 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mirassol vs Bahia?
The final score was Mirassol 1–2 Bahia.
What did the model predict before Mirassol vs Bahia?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Mirassol win, 28% to a draw, and 35% to an Bahia win.