Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 17
May 24, 2026 00:00
Denilson
36'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mirassol a 44% win probability (draw 25%, Fluminense 29%). The final result was Mirassol 1–0 Fluminense.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
7
8
Shots on target
1
0.51
Actual xG
0.60
1
Saves
7
32%
Possession
68%
4
Corners
5
13
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Alesson
7'
33'
L. Acosta
Denilson
35'
⚽Denilson
36'
38'
Nonato
Denilson
/ Chico Kim
57'
60'
Hercules
/
Nonato
60'
G. Cano
/
L. Acosta
68'
Riquelme Felipe
/
Y. Soteldo
Alesson
/ Nathan Fogaca
71'
Carlos Eduardo
/ Eduardo
71'
76'
Wesley Nata
/
John Kennedy
76'
Guilherme Arana
/
Rene
Reinaldo
/ Victor Luis
88'
Edson Carioca
/ Lucas Oliveira
88'
Pre-match prediction
44.48%
Mirassol ←
25.75%
X
29.77%
Fluminense
we assigned to the actual result (Mirassol)
44.48%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.51
0.51
-1.0
1.15
0.60
-0.55
xG dominance was balanced (0.51 – 0.60).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Walter
G
Walter
G
6
Reinaldo
88'
D
Reinaldo
88'
D
3
Willian Machado
D
Willian Machado
D
34
João Victor
D
João Victor
D
20
Daniel Borges
D
Daniel Borges
D
8
Denilson
1 ⚽
57'
M
Denilson
1 ⚽
57'
M
21
José Aldo
M
José Aldo
M
77
Alesson
71'
M
Alesson
71'
M
7
Shaylon
M
Shaylon
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
71'
M
Carlos Eduardo
71'
M
95
Edson
88'
F
Edson
88'
F
Bench
27
A. Galeano
F
A. Galeano
F
23
Alex Muralha
G
Alex Muralha
G
10
Chico
33'
M
Chico
33'
M
33
Eduardo
19'
M
Eduardo
19'
M
17
Everton Galdino
F
Everton Galdino
F
16
Igor Cariús
D
Igor Cariús
D
26
L. Mugni
M
L. Mugni
M
2
Lucas Oliveira
8'
D
Lucas Oliveira
8'
D
9
Nathan Fogaça
19'
F
Nathan Fogaça
19'
F
97
Rodrigues
D
Rodrigues
D
12
Victor Luís
8'
D
Victor Luís
8'
D
5
Yuri
M
Yuri
M
1
Fábio
G
Fábio
G
6
Renê
76'
D
Renê
76'
D
22
J. Freytes
D
J. Freytes
D
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
2
Samuel Xavier
D
Samuel Xavier
D
16
Nonato
60'
M
Nonato
60'
M
5
Facundo Bernal
M
Facundo Bernal
M
7
Y. Soteldo
68'
M
Y. Soteldo
68'
M
32
L. Acosta
60'
M
L. Acosta
60'
M
90
K. Serna
M
K. Serna
M
9
John Kennedy
76'
F
John Kennedy
76'
F
Bench
14
G. Cano
30'
F
G. Cano
30'
F
23
Guga
D
Guga
D
13
Guilherme Arana
14'
D
Guilherme Arana
14'
D
35
Hércules
30'
M
Hércules
30'
M
21
Igor Rabello
D
Igor Rabello
D
29
J. Millán
D
J. Millán
D
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
10
PH Ganso
M
PH Ganso
M
19
R. Castillo
F
R. Castillo
F
28
Riquelme
22'
F
Riquelme
22'
F
98
Vitor Eudes
G
Vitor Eudes
G
34
Wesley Natã
14'
F
Wesley Natã
14'
F
Best on the pitch
Denilson
M · Mirassol
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 17 pass
Daniel Borges
D · Mirassol
7.50
1 shots
· 13 pass
Fábio
G · Fluminense
7.30
· 19 pass
J. Freytes
D · Fluminense
7.30
· 95 pass
Reinaldo
D · Mirassol
7.20
1 shots
· 22 pass
Willian Machado
D · Mirassol
7.20
1 shots
· 38 pass
Mirassol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo | D | 88 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Willian Machado | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 30% | 5 | — | — |
| João Victor | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Denilson | M | 57 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 17 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| José Aldo | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Alesson | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Shaylon | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Edson | F | 88 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Chico | M | 33 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Eduardo | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Victor Luís | D | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 76 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 59 | 55% | 5 | — | — |
| J. Freytes | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 95 | 89% | — | 1 | — |
| Jemmes | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 92 | 82% | 1 | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 52 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Soteldo | M | 68 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Serna | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Cano | F | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Riquelme | F | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Wesley Natã | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mirassol vs Fluminense?
The final score was Mirassol 1–0 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Mirassol vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Mirassol win, 25% to a draw, and 29% to an Fluminense win.