Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 08, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Mirassol
Lucas Oliveira
47'
Reinaldo
61'
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mirassol a 57% win probability (draw 25%, LDU de Quito 16%). The final result was Mirassol 2–0 LDU de Quito. In 3 previous meetings, Mirassol have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for LDU de Quito.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
6
8
Shots on target
2
2.16
Actual xG
0.28
2
Saves
6
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
0
5
Tackles
7
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
44'
Gian Franco Allala
⚽Lucas Oliveira
47'
55'
Yerlin Quinonez
⚽Reinaldo
(pen.)
61'
71'
Michael Estrada
/
Deyverson
71'
Alejandro Tobar
/
Gabriel Villamil
71'
Ricardo Adé
/
José Quintero
Everton Galdino
/ André Luis
74'
Carlos Eduardo
/ Antonio Galeano
74'
75'
Luis Segovia
Denilson
/ Yuri
83'
Shaylon
/ Eduardo
83'
85'
Rodney Redes
/
Jeison Medina
85'
Kevin Minda
/
Fernando Cornejo
Edson Carioca
/ Rodrigues
90'
Pre-match prediction
57.47%
Mirassol ←
25.95%
X
16.58%
LDU
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Mirassol)
57.47%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
2.16
+0.74
0.55
0.28
-0.27
Mirassol dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.28).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Walter
G
Walter
G
6
Reinaldo
1 ⚽
D
Reinaldo
1 ⚽
D
3
D
2
Lucas Oliveira
1 ⚽
D
Lucas Oliveira
1 ⚽
D
32
Igor Formiga
D
Igor Formiga
D
8
Denilson
83'
M
Denilson
83'
M
25
Neto Moura
M
Neto Moura
M
95
Edson
M
Edson
M
7
Shaylon
83'
M
Shaylon
83'
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
74'
M
Carlos Eduardo
74'
M
17
Everton Galdino
74'
F
Everton Galdino
74'
F
Bench
27
A. Galeano
23'
F
A. Galeano
23'
F
23
Alex Muralha
G
Alex Muralha
G
99
André Luís
23'
F
André Luís
23'
F
33
Eduardo
14'
M
Eduardo
14'
M
21
José Aldo
M
José Aldo
M
26
L. Mugni
M
L. Mugni
M
9
Nathan Fogaça
F
Nathan Fogaça
F
12
Victor Luís
D
Victor Luís
D
1
Gonzalo Valle
G
Gonzalo Valle
G
23
Yerlin Quinonez
D
Yerlin Quinonez
D
33
Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
D
Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
D
44
L. Segovia
D
L. Segovia
D
30
G. Allala
D
G. Allala
D
14
José Quintero
71'
D
José Quintero
71'
D
15
G. Villamíl
71'
M
G. Villamíl
71'
M
8
Jesús Pretell
M
Jesús Pretell
M
20
F. Cornejo
85'
M
F. Cornejo
85'
M
16
Deyverson
71'
F
Deyverson
71'
F
9
J. Medina
85'
F
J. Medina
85'
F
Bench
10
Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel
M
Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel
M
99
C. Tobar
26'
M
C. Tobar
26'
M
32
Edison Gomez
M
Edison Gomez
M
26
Josue Caicedo
D
Josue Caicedo
D
5
K. Minda
12'
M
K. Minda
12'
M
11
M. Estrada
26'
F
M. Estrada
26'
F
4
Ricardo Ade
26'
D
Ricardo Ade
26'
D
7
Rodney Redes
12'
F
Best on the pitch
Reinaldo
D · Mirassol
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 36 pass
Lucas Oliveira
D · Mirassol
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 57 pass
Carlos Eduardo
M · Mirassol
7.30
2 shots
· 15 pass
Denilson
M · Mirassol
7.30
· 45 pass
Gonzalo Valle
G · LDU
7.20
· 45 pass
Everton Galdino
F · Mirassol
7.20
2 shots
· 17 pass
Mirassol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter | G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo | D | 97 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 36 | 26% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 44 | 36% | — | — | — | |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 97 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 57 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Igor Formiga | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Denilson | M | 83 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Edson | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 83 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | M | 74 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Everton Galdino | F | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Galeano | F | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| André Luís | F | 23 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Eduardo | M | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
LDU de Quito — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo Valle | G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Yerlin Quinonez | D | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Segovia | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 50 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| G. Allala | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| José Quintero | D | 71 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Villamíl | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Pretell | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Cornejo | M | 85 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Deyverson | F | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| J. Medina | F | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| C. Tobar | M | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| K. Minda | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. Estrada | F | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Ade | D | 26 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Rodney Redes | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
The final score was Mirassol 2–0 LDU de Quito.
What did the model predict before Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Mirassol win, 25% to a draw, and 16% to an LDU de Quito win.