Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 08, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Mirassol
Lucas Oliveira
47'
Reinaldo
61'
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mirassol a 57% win probability (draw 25%, LDU de Quito 16%). The final result was Mirassol 2–0 LDU de Quito. In 1 previous meetings, Mirassol have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for LDU de Quito.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
6
8
Shots on target
2
2.16
Actual xG
0.28
2
Saves
6
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
0
5
Tackles
7
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
44'
Gian Franco Allala
⚽Lucas Oliveira
47'
55'
Yerlin Quinonez
⚽Reinaldo
(pen.)
61'
71'
Michael Estrada
/
Deyverson
71'
Alejandro Tobar
/
Gabriel Villamil
71'
Ricardo Adé
/
José Quintero
Everton Galdino
/ André Luis
74'
Carlos Eduardo
/ Antonio Galeano
74'
75'
Luis Segovia
Denilson
/ Yuri
83'
Shaylon
/ Eduardo
83'
85'
Rodney Redes
/
Jeison Medina
85'
Kevin Minda
/
Fernando Cornejo
Edson Carioca
/ Rodrigues
90'
Pre-match prediction
57.47%
Mirassol ←
25.95%
X
16.58%
LDU
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Mirassol)
57.47%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
2.16
+0.74
0.55
0.28
-0.27
Mirassol dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.28).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Walter
G
Walter
G
6
Reinaldo
1 ⚽
D
Reinaldo
1 ⚽
D
3
D
2
Lucas Oliveira
1 ⚽
D
Lucas Oliveira
1 ⚽
D
32
Igor Formiga
D
Igor Formiga
D
8
Denilson
83'
M
Denilson
83'
M
25
Neto Moura
M
Neto Moura
M
95
Edson Carioca
M
Edson Carioca
M
7
Shaylon
83'
M
Shaylon
83'
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
74'
M
Carlos Eduardo
74'
M
17
Everton Galdino
74'
F
Everton Galdino
74'
F
Bench
23
Alex Muralha
G
Alex Muralha
G
99
André Luis
23'
F
André Luis
23'
F
27
Antonio Galeano
23'
F
Antonio Galeano
23'
F
33
Eduardo
14'
M
Eduardo
14'
M
21
José Aldo
M
José Aldo
M
26
Lucas Mugni
M
Lucas Mugni
M
9
Nathan Fogaça
F
Nathan Fogaça
F
12
Victor Luis
D
Victor Luis
D
1
G. Valle
G
G. Valle
G
23
Yerlin Quinonez
D
Yerlin Quinonez
D
33
Leonel Quiñónez
D
Leonel Quiñónez
D
44
L. Segovia
D
L. Segovia
D
30
Gian Franco Allala
D
Gian Franco Allala
D
14
José Quintero
71'
D
José Quintero
71'
D
15
G. Villamíl
71'
M
G. Villamíl
71'
M
8
Jesús Pretell
M
Jesús Pretell
M
20
Fernando Cornejo
85'
M
Fernando Cornejo
85'
M
16
Deyverson
71'
F
Deyverson
71'
F
9
Jeison Medina
85'
F
Jeison Medina
85'
F
Bench
99
Alejandro Tobar
26'
M
Alejandro Tobar
26'
M
10
Alexander Alvarado
M
Alexander Alvarado
M
32
Edison Gomez
M
Edison Gomez
M
26
Josue Caicedo
D
Josue Caicedo
D
5
Kevin Minda
12'
M
Kevin Minda
12'
M
11
Michael Estrada
26'
F
Michael Estrada
26'
F
4
Ricardo Adé
26'
D
Ricardo Adé
26'
D
7
Rodney Redes
12'
F
Rodney Redes
12'
F
Best on the pitch
Reinaldo
D · Mirassol
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 36 pass
Lucas Oliveira
D · Mirassol
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 57 pass
Carlos Eduardo
M · Mirassol
7.30
2 shots
· 15 pass
Denilson
M · Mirassol
7.30
· 45 pass
G. Valle
G · LDU
7.20
· 45 pass
Everton Galdino
F · Mirassol
7.20
2 shots
· 17 pass
Mirassol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter | G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo | D | 97 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 36 | 26% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 44 | 36% | — | — | — | |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 97 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 57 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Igor Formiga | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Denilson | M | 83 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Edson Carioca | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 83 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | M | 74 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Everton Galdino | F | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 16% | — | — | — |
| André Luis | F | 23 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Antonio Galeano | F | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo | M | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
LDU de Quito — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Valle | G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Yerlin Quinonez | D | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Leonel Quiñónez | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Segovia | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 50 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gian Franco Allala | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| José Quintero | D | 71 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Villamíl | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Pretell | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| Fernando Cornejo | M | 85 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Deyverson | F | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jeison Medina | F | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Tobar | M | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Minda | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Michael Estrada | F | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Adé | D | 26 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Rodney Redes | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
The final score was Mirassol 2–0 LDU de Quito.
What did the model predict before Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Mirassol win, 25% to a draw, and 16% to an LDU de Quito win.