Skip to main content
← UEFA Nations League

Moldova - Slovakia

UEFA Nations League October 06, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Moldova
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Slovakia
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
21.18%
Win
Moldova
14.69%
Draw
64.14%
Win
Slovakia
1.84
Expected xG
3.43
Most likely outcome
Slovakia
64.14%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–3 (6.51%)
1X2 Result
1 21%
X 15%
2 64%
Double Chance
1X 36%
X2 79%
12 85%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 85%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Slovakia a 64% win probability, against 14% for a draw and 21% for Moldova. Expected goals are 1.8 for Moldova and 3.4 for Slovakia (total 5.3), with a 94% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–3 at 6.51% probability.

Season Stats

Moldova
3W 0D 1L
Slovakia
4W 2D 2L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.2
0.2
Conceded
0.8
3.3
Shots OT
5.4
3.0
Corners
5.8
54%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
38%
0%
BTTS
38%
75%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
13%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Moldova
2W 0D 0L · at home
Slovakia
2W 0D 2L · away
2.0
gls/g
1.2
0.0
Conceded
1.0
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
25%
0%
BTTS
50%
100%
Clean Sht
25%
0%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Moldova Slovakia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.5% 1.8% 3.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.0%
1 0.9% 3.2% 5.6% 6.4% 5.5% 3.7%
2 0.9% 3.0% 5.1% 5.9% 5.0% 3.4%
3 0.5% 1.8% 3.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.1%
4 0.2% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

Recent form

Moldova Moldova
W Andorra 0–1
L Malta 1–0
W Andorra 2–0
W Malta 2–0
Slovakia Slovakia
L Slovenia 1–0
D Slovenia 0–0
W Estonia 1–0
L Sweden 2–1
W Azerbaijan 1–3

Playing profile

Moldova Moldova
Attack
29
Defence
41
Form
6
Slovakia Slovakia
Attack
48
Defence
62
Form
40
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 3

# Team G Pts
1 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan 0 0
2 Slovakia Slovakia 0 0
3 Faroe Islands Faroe Islands 0 0
4 Moldova Moldova 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 3

Top 2 advance to the next round

Moldova Slovakia
Current #4 #2
→ Moldova #1 #3
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Slovakia #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Moldova vs Slovakia?
The model gives Moldova a 21% win probability, 14% for a draw, and 64% for an Slovakia win.
How many goals are expected in Moldova vs Slovakia?
Expected goals: Moldova 1.8, Slovakia 3.4 (total 5.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 94%.
What is the most likely score in Moldova vs Slovakia?
1–3 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.51%.