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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 28 April 05, 2026 20:45 Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco
#4 · 15 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Marseille
#8 · 12 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Monaco
A. Golovin (ast. J. Teze) 59'
F. Balogun 74'
85' (ast. F. Medina) A. Gouiri
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Monaco a 65% win probability (draw 15%, Marseille 19%). The final result was Monaco 2–1 Marseille. In 2 previous meetings, Monaco have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Marseille.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
14
3
Shots on target
9
1.17
Actual xG
2.11
7
Saves
1
48%
Possession
52%
0
Corners
8
22
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Lamine Camara
8'
34'
Facundo Medina
⚽A. Golovin · ast. J. Teze
59'
↕ C. Mawissa / K. Diatta
65'
↕ M. Coulibaly / A. Bamba
65'
Thilo Kehrer
71'
73'
E. Nwaneri / H. J. Traore ↕
⚽F. Balogun
74'
↕ A. Golovin / A. Fati
75'
77'
L. Balerdi / C. Egan-Riley ↕
↕ F. Balogun / M. Biereth
84'
↕ M. Akliouche / S. Adingra
84'
85'
ast. F. Medina · A. Gouiri⚽
87'
Leonardo Balerdi
89'
Emerson / T. Weah ↕
89'
H. Abdelli / P. Hojbjerg ↕
Pre-match prediction
65.14%
Monaco ←
15.7%
X
19.15%
Marseille
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Monaco) 65.14% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Monaco
2.72
1.17
-1.55
Marseille
1.09
2.11
+1.02
Marseille dominated by xG (2.11 vs 1.17). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 17
2 Rennes Rennes 8 16
3 Lille Lille 8 15
4 Monaco Monaco 8 15
5 Lyon Lyon 8 14
6 Paris FC Paris FC 8 14
7 Lens Lens 8 13
8 Marseille Marseille 8 12
9 Lorient Lorient 8 12
10 Nice Nice 8 11
11 Toulouse Toulouse 8 10
12 Auxerre Auxerre 8 10
13 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 8 9
14 Angers Angers 8 8
15 Le Mans Le Mans 8 7
16 Strasbourg Strasbourg 8 7
17 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 8 5
18 Le Havre Le Havre 8 2
Lineups
Monaco Monaco 3-4-2-1
1 L. Hrádecký L. Hrádecký G 7.90
25 W. Faes W. Faes D 6.50
6 D. Zakaria D. Zakaria D 7.00
5 T. Kehrer T. Kehrer D 7.50
13 C. Mawissa Elebi C. Mawissa Elebi 65' M 6.60
15 L. Camara L. Camara M 6.60
28 M. Coulibaly M. Coulibaly 65' M 6.60
4 J. Teze J. Teze 1 👟 M 7.90
10 A. Golovin A. Golovin 1 ⚽ 75' F 7.90
11 M. Akliouche M. Akliouche 84' F 6.60
9 F. Balogun F. Balogun 1 ⚽ 84' F 7.90
Bench
23 A. Bamba A. Bamba 25' M 6.90
31 Ansu Fati Ansu Fati 15' F 6.70
27 K. Diatta K. Diatta 25' M 6.60
8 Paul Pogba Paul Pogba M
24 S. Adingra S. Adingra 13' F 6.60
17 S. Idumbo-Muzambo S. Idumbo-Muzambo M
Marseille Marseille 3-4-1-2
1 G. Rulli G. Rulli G 6.60
32 F. Medina F. Medina 1 👟 D 6.90
4 C. Egan-Riley C. Egan-Riley 77' D 6.50
28 B. Pavard B. Pavard D 5.60
14 Igor Paixão Igor Paixão M 6.60
23 P. Højbjerg P. Højbjerg 89' M 7.20
27 Q. Timber Q. Timber M 6.60
22 T. Weah T. Weah 89' M 6.60
20 H. Traorè H. Traorè 73' F 6.30
9 A. Gouiri A. Gouiri 1 ⚽ F 8.30
17 P. Aubameyang P. Aubameyang F 6.50
Bench
78 Ange Lago Ange Lago F
18 A. Vermeeren A. Vermeeren M
26 B. Nadir B. Nadir M
33 Emerson Emerson 8' D 6.30
11 E. Nwaneri E. Nwaneri 17' M 6.30
8 H. Abdelli H. Abdelli 8' M 6.30
5 L. Balerdi L. Balerdi 13' D 6.60
6 T. Nnadi T. Nnadi M
Best on the pitch
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
F · Marseille
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
L. Hrádecký
L. Hrádecký
G · Monaco
7.90
· 29 pass
J. Teze
J. Teze
M · Monaco
7.90
1 👟
· 27 pass
A. Golovin
A. Golovin
F · Monaco
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 27 pass
F. Balogun
F. Balogun
F · Monaco
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 11 pass
T. Kehrer
T. Kehrer
D · Monaco
7.50
· 47 pass
Monaco Monaco — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Hrádecký G 90 7.90 — — — 29 12% — — —
W. Faes D 90 6.50 — — — 56 48% 1 — —
D. Zakaria D 90 7.00 — — 1 42 41% 1 — —
T. Kehrer D 90 7.50 — — — 47 44% 4 1 —
C. Mawissa Elebi M 65 6.60 — — — 26 21% 1 — —
L. Camara M 90 6.60 — — — 69 65% 3 1 —
M. Coulibaly M 65 6.60 — — — 25 18% 1 — —
J. Teze M 90 7.90 — 1 — 27 25% 6 — —
A. Golovin F 75 7.90 1 — 1 27 25% 1 — —
M. Akliouche F 84 6.60 — — 2 28 23% — — —
F. Balogun F 84 7.90 1 — 1 11 6% — — —
A. Bamba M 25 6.90 — — — 8 5% 2 — —
Ansu Fati F 15 6.70 — — — 6 5% — — —
K. Diatta M 25 6.60 — — — 7 4% 2 — —
S. Adingra F 13 6.60 — — 1 1 — — — —
Marseille Marseille — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Rulli G 90 6.60 — — — 26 19% — — —
F. Medina D 90 6.90 — 1 1 51 45% 1 1 —
C. Egan-Riley D 77 6.50 — — — 28 24% 3 — —
B. Pavard D 90 5.60 — — — 48 38% 1 — —
Igor Paixão M 90 6.60 — — 4 30 24% — — —
P. Højbjerg M 89 7.20 — — 2 57 51% — — —
Q. Timber M 90 6.60 — — 2 54 44% 4 — —
T. Weah M 89 6.60 — — 1 41 36% 2 — —
H. Traorè F 73 6.30 — — 1 20 13% 1 — —
A. Gouiri F 90 8.30 1 — 1 31 26% — — —
P. Aubameyang F 90 6.50 — — 2 13 10% — — —
Emerson D 8 6.30 — — — 4 3% — — —
E. Nwaneri M 17 6.30 — — — 8 8% — — —
H. Abdelli M 8 6.30 — — — 7 7% — — —
L. Balerdi D 13 6.60 — — — 13 13% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Monaco vs Marseille?
The final score was Monaco 2–1 Marseille.
What did the model predict before Monaco vs Marseille?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Monaco win, 15% to a draw, and 19% to an Marseille win.