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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 28 April 05, 2026 20:45 Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco
#1 · 10 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Marseille
#11 · 3 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Monaco
A. Golovin (ast. J. Teze) 59'
F. Balogun 74'
85' (ast. F. Medina) A. Gouiri
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Monaco a 65% win probability (draw 15%, Marseille 19%). The final result was Monaco 2–1 Marseille. In 2 previous meetings, Monaco have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Marseille.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
14
3
Shots on target
9
1.17
Actual xG
2.11
7
Saves
1
48%
Possession
52%
0
Corners
8
22
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Lamine Camara
8'
34'
Facundo Medina
⚽A. Golovin · ast. J. Teze
59'
↕ C. Mawissa / K. Diatta
65'
↕ M. Coulibaly / A. Bamba
65'
Thilo Kehrer
71'
73'
E. Nwaneri / H. J. Traore ↕
⚽F. Balogun
74'
↕ A. Golovin / A. Fati
75'
77'
L. Balerdi / C. Egan-Riley ↕
↕ F. Balogun / M. Biereth
84'
↕ M. Akliouche / S. Adingra
84'
85'
ast. F. Medina · A. Gouiri⚽
87'
Leonardo Balerdi
89'
Emerson / T. Weah ↕
89'
H. Abdelli / P. Hojbjerg ↕
Pre-match prediction
65.14%
Monaco ←
15.7%
X
19.15%
Marseille
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Monaco) 65.14% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Monaco
2.72
1.17
-1.55
Marseille
1.09
2.11
+1.02
Marseille dominated by xG (2.11 vs 1.17). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Monaco Monaco 4 10
2 Rennes Rennes 4 10
3 Paris FC Paris FC 3 7
4 Lyon Lyon 3 7
5 Lille Lille 3 7
6 Strasbourg Strasbourg 4 7
7 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 3 5
8 Lorient Lorient 3 4
9 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 3 4
10 Lens Lens 3 3
11 Marseille Marseille 4 3
12 Angers Angers 3 3
13 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 3 2
14 Le Mans Le Mans 3 2
15 Nice Nice 3 2
16 Le Havre Le Havre 3 1
17 Toulouse Toulouse 3 1
18 Auxerre Auxerre 3 0
Lineups
Monaco Monaco 3-4-2-1
1 L. Hrádecký L. Hrádecký G 7.90
25 Wout Faes Wout Faes D 6.50
6 D. Zakaria D. Zakaria D 7.00
5 T. Kehrer T. Kehrer D 7.50
13 C. Mawissa Elebi C. Mawissa Elebi 65' M 6.60
15 L. Camara L. Camara M 6.60
28 M. Coulibaly M. Coulibaly 65' M 6.60
4 J. Teze J. Teze 1 👟 M 7.90
10 A. Golovin A. Golovin 1 ⚽ 75' F 7.90
11 M. Akliouche M. Akliouche 84' F 6.60
9 F. Balogun F. Balogun 1 ⚽ 84' F 7.90
Bench
23 A. Bamba A. Bamba 25' M 6.90
31 Ansu Fati Ansu Fati 15' F 6.70
27 Krépin Diatta Krépin Diatta 25' M 6.60
8 Paul Pogba Paul Pogba M
17 S. Idumbo-Muzambo S. Idumbo-Muzambo M
24 Simon Adingra Simon Adingra 13' F 6.60
Marseille Marseille 3-4-1-2
1 G. Rulli G. Rulli G 6.60
32 F. Medina F. Medina 1 👟 D 6.90
4 C. Egan-Riley C. Egan-Riley 77' D 6.50
28 B. Pavard B. Pavard D 5.60
14 Igor Paixão Igor Paixão M 6.60
23 P. Højbjerg P. Højbjerg 89' M 7.20
27 Q. Timber Q. Timber M 6.60
22 T. Weah T. Weah 89' M 6.60
20 Hamed Junior Traorè Hamed Junior Traorè 73' F 6.30
9 A. Gouiri A. Gouiri 1 ⚽ F 8.30
17 P. Aubameyang P. Aubameyang F 6.50
Bench
78 Ange Lago Ange Lago F
18 A. Vermeeren A. Vermeeren M
26 B. Nadir B. Nadir M
33 Emerson Emerson 8' D 6.30
11 E. Nwaneri E. Nwaneri 17' M 6.30
8 H. Abdelli H. Abdelli 8' M 6.30
5 L. Balerdi L. Balerdi 13' D 6.60
6 Tochukwu Nnadi Tochukwu Nnadi M
Best on the pitch
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
F · Marseille
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
L. Hrádecký
L. Hrádecký
G · Monaco
7.90
· 29 pass
J. Teze
J. Teze
M · Monaco
7.90
1 👟
· 27 pass
A. Golovin
A. Golovin
F · Monaco
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 27 pass
F. Balogun
F. Balogun
F · Monaco
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 11 pass
T. Kehrer
T. Kehrer
D · Monaco
7.50
· 47 pass
Monaco Monaco — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Hrádecký G 90 7.90 — — — 29 12% — — —
Wout Faes D 90 6.50 — — — 56 48% 1 — —
D. Zakaria D 90 7.00 — — 1 42 41% 1 — —
T. Kehrer D 90 7.50 — — — 47 44% 4 1 —
C. Mawissa Elebi M 65 6.60 — — — 26 21% 1 — —
L. Camara M 90 6.60 — — — 69 65% 3 1 —
M. Coulibaly M 65 6.60 — — — 25 18% 1 — —
J. Teze M 90 7.90 — 1 — 27 25% 6 — —
A. Golovin F 75 7.90 1 — 1 27 25% 1 — —
M. Akliouche F 84 6.60 — — 2 28 23% — — —
F. Balogun F 84 7.90 1 — 1 11 6% — — —
A. Bamba M 25 6.90 — — — 8 5% 2 — —
Ansu Fati F 15 6.70 — — — 6 5% — — —
Krépin Diatta M 25 6.60 — — — 7 4% 2 — —
Simon Adingra F 13 6.60 — — 1 1 — — — —
Marseille Marseille — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Rulli G 90 6.60 — — — 26 19% — — —
F. Medina D 90 6.90 — 1 1 51 45% 1 1 —
C. Egan-Riley D 77 6.50 — — — 28 24% 3 — —
B. Pavard D 90 5.60 — — — 48 38% 1 — —
Igor Paixão M 90 6.60 — — 4 30 24% — — —
P. Højbjerg M 89 7.20 — — 2 57 51% — — —
Q. Timber M 90 6.60 — — 2 54 44% 4 — —
T. Weah M 89 6.60 — — 1 41 36% 2 — —
Hamed Junior Traorè F 73 6.30 — — 1 20 13% 1 — —
A. Gouiri F 90 8.30 1 — 1 31 26% — — —
P. Aubameyang F 90 6.50 — — 2 13 10% — — —
Emerson D 8 6.30 — — — 4 3% — — —
E. Nwaneri M 17 6.30 — — — 8 8% — — —
H. Abdelli M 8 6.30 — — — 7 7% — — —
L. Balerdi D 13 6.60 — — — 13 13% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Monaco vs Marseille?
The final score was Monaco 2–1 Marseille.
What did the model predict before Monaco vs Marseille?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Monaco win, 15% to a draw, and 19% to an Marseille win.