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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6 October 10, 2026 20:45 Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco
#4 · 15 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Toulouse
#11 · 10 pts
Edan Diop (ast. Aleksandr Golovin) 29'
Matthis Abline (ast. Edan Diop) 38'
(pen.) 48' Casper Tengstedt
59' (ast. Casper Tengstedt) Sion Oppong
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Monaco a 40% win probability (draw 29%, Toulouse 29%). The final result was Monaco 2–2 Toulouse. In 2 previous meetings, Monaco have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toulouse.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
1.25
Actual xG
1.49
2
Saves
2
58%
Possession
42%
4
Corners
4
21
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Edan Diop · ast. Aleksandr Golovin
29'
⚽Matthis Abline · ast. Edan Diop
38'
45'
Sion Oppong / Jacen Russell-Rowe ↕
Flavio Nazinho
47'
48'
(pen.) Casper Tengstedt⚽
↕ Denis Zakaria / Safouane Benzahra
51'
Aleksandr Golovin
54'
↕ Mathys Detourbet / Folarin Balogun
58'
↕ Edan Diop / Stanis Idumbo
58'
59'
ast. Casper Tengstedt · Sion Oppong⚽
70'
Cristian Casseres
71'
Niko Sigur / Ilyas Azizi ↕
↕ Vanderson / Jordan Teze
75'
↕ Matthis Abline / Ansu Fati
75'
77'
Ismaïl Diallo / Rafik Messali ↕
84'
Santiago Hidalgo / Casper Tengstedt ↕
84'
Aron Dønnum / Alexis Vossah ↕
90'+3
Sion Oppong
Pre-match prediction
40.91%
Monaco
29.91%
X ←
29.18%
Toulouse
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 29.91% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Monaco
1.94
1.25
-0.69
Toulouse
1.35
1.49
+0.14
xG dominance was balanced (1.25 – 1.49). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 17
2 Rennes Rennes 8 16
3 Lille Lille 8 15
4 Monaco Monaco 8 15
5 Lyon Lyon 8 14
6 Paris FC Paris FC 8 14
7 Lens Lens 8 13
8 Marseille Marseille 8 12
9 Lorient Lorient 8 12
10 Nice Nice 8 11
11 Toulouse Toulouse 8 10
12 Auxerre Auxerre 8 10
13 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 8 9
14 Angers Angers 8 8
15 Le Mans Le Mans 8 7
16 Strasbourg Strasbourg 8 7
17 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 8 5
18 Le Havre Le Havre 8 2
Lineups
Monaco Monaco 4-2-3-1
1 L. Hrádecký L. Hrádecký G 6.32
20 Flávio Nazinho Flávio Nazinho D 6.19
15 E. Dier E. Dier D 7.07
72 Sadibou Sané Sadibou Sané D 6.87
2 Vanderson Vanderson 75' D 7.11
6 D. Zakaria D. Zakaria 51' M 6.47
8 L. Camara L. Camara M 7.20
7 M. Detourbet M. Detourbet 58' M 6.51
10 A. Golovin A. Golovin 1 👟 M 6.71
37 E. Diop E. Diop 1 ⚽ 1 👟 58' M 7.90
11 M. Abline M. Abline 1 ⚽ 75' F 7.69
Bench
46 Anis Soubeir Anis Soubeir M 0.00
31 Ansu Fati Ansu Fati 15' F 6.91
13 C. Mawissa Elebi C. Mawissa Elebi D 0.00
9 F. Balogun F. Balogun 32' F 6.01
4 J. Teze J. Teze 15' D 6.35
22 M. Salisu M. Salisu D 0.00
16 P. Köhn P. Köhn G 0.00
47 S. Benzahra S. Benzahra 39' M 6.39
17 S. Idumbo-Muzambo S. Idumbo-Muzambo 32' M 6.96
Toulouse Toulouse 4-2-3-1
16 G. Restes G. Restes G 6.69
12 C. Tapé C. Tapé D 6.44
3 M. McKenzie M. McKenzie D 6.39
5 S. Koumbassa S. Koumbassa D 6.59
22 R. Messali R. Messali 77' D 6.35
6 A. Vossah A. Vossah 84' M 6.22
23 C. Cásseres C. Cásseres M 5.80
37 Y. Azizi Y. Azizi 71' M 6.85
20 C. Tengstedt C. Tengstedt 1 ⚽ 1 👟 84' M 7.23
8 T. Jørgensen T. Jørgensen M 6.15
13 J. Russell-Rowe J. Russell-Rowe 45' F 6.50
Bench
15 A. Dønnum A. Dønnum 6' M 6.10
19 D. Odogu D. Odogu D 0.00
94 I. Diallo I. Diallo 13' D 6.06
18 M. Amougou M. Amougou M 0.00
60 M. Niflore M. Niflore G 0.00
31 N. Schmidt N. Schmidt M 0.00
14 N. Sigur N. Sigur 19' M 6.05
9 S. Hidalgo S. Hidalgo 6' F 6.50
11 S. Oppong S. Oppong 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.81
Best on the pitch
E. Diop
E. Diop
M · Monaco
7.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 17 pass
S. Oppong
S. Oppong
F · Toulouse
7.81
1 ⚽
1 shots · 9 pass
M. Abline
M. Abline
F · Monaco
7.69
1 ⚽
3 shots · 7 pass
C. Tengstedt
C. Tengstedt
M · Toulouse
7.23
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 13 pass
L. Camara
L. Camara
M · Monaco
7.20
2 shots · 79 pass
Vanderson
Vanderson
D · Monaco
7.11
· 49 pass
Monaco Monaco — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Hrádecký G 90 6.32 — — 0 28 22% 0 — —
Flávio Nazinho D 90 6.19 — — 0 84 73% 0 1 —
E. Dier D 90 7.07 — — 0 118 112% 0 — —
Sadibou Sané D 90 6.87 — — 0 87 82% 0 — —
Vanderson D 75 7.11 — — 0 49 43% 3 — —
D. Zakaria M 51 6.47 — — 0 34 29% 3 — —
L. Camara M 90 7.20 — — 2 79 71% 3 — —
M. Detourbet M 58 6.51 — — 2 26 22% 2 — —
A. Golovin M 90 6.71 — 1 2 35 28% 2 1 —
E. Diop M 58 7.90 1 1 2 17 13% 4 — —
M. Abline F 75 7.69 1 — 3 7 6% 1 — —
Ansu Fati F 15 6.91 — — 2 7 5% 0 — —
F. Balogun F 32 6.01 — — 1 6 3% 0 — —
J. Teze D 15 6.35 — — 0 12 12% 1 — —
S. Benzahra M 39 6.39 — — 0 37 33% 1 — —
S. Idumbo-Muzambo M 32 6.96 — — 2 20 20% 1 — —
Toulouse Toulouse — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Restes G 90 6.69 — — 0 35 28% 0 — —
C. Tapé D 90 6.44 — — 0 47 40% 2 — —
M. McKenzie D 90 6.39 — — 0 63 59% 2 — —
S. Koumbassa D 90 6.59 — — 0 54 52% 0 — —
R. Messali D 77 6.35 — — 0 38 33% 2 — —
A. Vossah M 84 6.22 — — 0 34 32% 3 — —
C. Cásseres M 90 5.80 — — 0 77 60% 4 1 —
Y. Azizi M 71 6.85 — — 1 26 26% 1 — —
C. Tengstedt M 84 7.23 1 1 3 13 9% 1 — —
T. Jørgensen M 90 6.15 — — 2 28 24% 2 — —
J. Russell-Rowe F 45 6.50 — — 1 12 9% 0 — —
A. Dønnum M 6 6.10 — — 0 11 9% 0 — —
I. Diallo D 13 6.06 — — 0 5 4% 1 — —
N. Sigur M 19 6.05 — — 0 10 10% 0 — —
S. Hidalgo F 6 6.50 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
S. Oppong F 45 7.81 1 — 1 9 6% 0 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Monaco vs Toulouse?
The final score was Monaco 2–2 Toulouse.
What did the model predict before Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Monaco win, 29% to a draw, and 29% to an Toulouse win.