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Montenegro - Armenia

UEFA Nations League October 05, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Montenegro
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Armenia
#3 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
73.91%
Win
Montenegro
12.83%
Draw
13.26%
Win
Armenia
3.44
Expected xG
1.4
Most likely outcome
Montenegro
73.91%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–1 (7.71%)
1X2 Result
1 74%
X 13%
2 13%
Double Chance
1X 87%
X2 26%
12 87%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Montenegro a 73% win probability, against 12% for a draw and 13% for Armenia. Expected goals are 3.4 for Montenegro and 1.4 for Armenia (total 4.8), with a 94% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 7.71% probability.

Season Stats

Montenegro
1W 0D 5L
Armenia
2W 1D 5L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
1.1
1.5
Conceded
2.2
3.3
Shots OT
4.9
5.3
Corners
7.4
43%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
88%
33%
O 2.5
63%
33%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
42%
O 3.5
71%
BTTS
Montenegro
1W 0D 2L · at home
Armenia
1W 1D 2L · away
1.3
gls/g
1.2
1.7
Conceded
2.8
33%
Win %
25%
33%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
75%
33%
O 3.5
50%
67%
BTTS
75%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
33%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Montenegro Armenia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
1 2.7% 3.8% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.7% 6.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.4% 7.5% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
4 4.6% 6.5% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
5 3.2% 4.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Recent form

Montenegro Montenegro
W Türkiye 3–1
L Iceland 0–2
L Wales 1–0
L Türkiye 1–0
L Wales 1–2
Armenia Armenia
L Georgia 6–1
L Georgia 0–3
W Latvia 1–2
L Faroe Islands 0–1
L FYR Macedonia 0–2

Playing profile

Montenegro Montenegro
Attack
45
Defence
60
Form
43
Armenia Armenia
Attack
32
Defence
61
Form
18
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Latvia Latvia 0 0
2 Montenegro Montenegro 0 0
3 Armenia Armenia 0 0
4 Cyprus Cyprus 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Montenegro Armenia
Current #2 #3
→ Montenegro #1 #3
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Armenia #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Montenegro vs Armenia?
The model gives Montenegro a 73% win probability, 12% for a draw, and 13% for an Armenia win.
How many goals are expected in Montenegro vs Armenia?
Expected goals: Montenegro 3.4, Armenia 1.4 (total 4.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 94%.
What is the most likely score in Montenegro vs Armenia?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.71%.