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Montenegro - Cyprus

UEFA Nations League September 25, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Montenegro
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Cyprus
#4 · 0 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 26.8°C 💨 18 km/h 🌧️ 58% · Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
58.99%
Win
Montenegro
17.35%
Draw
23.67%
Win
Cyprus
2.84
Expected xG
1.79
Most likely outcome
Montenegro
58.99%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (7.1%)
1X2 Result
1 59%
X 17%
2 24%
Double Chance
1X 76%
X2 41%
12 83%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Montenegro a 58% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 23% for Cyprus. Expected goals are 2.8 for Montenegro and 1.8 for Cyprus (total 4.6), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 7.1% probability.

Season Stats

Montenegro
1W 0D 5L
Cyprus
2W 0D 4L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.7
1.5
Conceded
2.5
3.3
Shots OT
3.3
5.3
Corners
4.5
43%
Poss.
40%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
83%
33%
O 2.5
83%
33%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
33%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Montenegro
1W 0D 2L · at home
Cyprus
1W 0D 2L · away
1.3
gls/g
0.7
1.7
Conceded
2.3
33%
Win %
33%
33%
Win or Draw
33%
100%
O 1.5
67%
67%
O 2.5
67%
33%
O 3.5
33%
67%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
33%
Failed to Score
33%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Montenegro Cyprus →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
1 2.8% 5.0% 4.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4%
2 3.9% 7.0% 6.3% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6%
3 3.7% 6.7% 6.0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6%
4 2.6% 4.7% 4.2% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
5 1.5% 2.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Recent form

Montenegro Montenegro
W Türkiye 3–1
L Iceland 0–2
L Wales 1–0
L Türkiye 1–0
L Wales 1–2
Cyprus Cyprus
L Romania 4–1
W Lithuania 2–1
L Kosovo 3–0
L Romania 0–3
L Kosovo 0–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Montenegro Montenegro
Attack
45
Defence
60
Form
43
Cyprus Cyprus
Attack
39
Defence
74
Form
24
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Latvia Latvia 0 0
2 Montenegro Montenegro 0 0
3 Armenia Armenia 0 0
4 Cyprus Cyprus 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Montenegro Cyprus
Current #2 #4
→ Montenegro #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Cyprus #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Montenegro vs Cyprus?
The model gives Montenegro a 58% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 23% for an Cyprus win.
How many goals are expected in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
Expected goals: Montenegro 2.8, Cyprus 1.8 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.1%.