✓Model correct — prediction Monza
P. Obiang
(ast. A. Petagna)
50'
M. Pessina
(ast. G. Caso)
79'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Monza a 65% win probability (draw 22%, Bari 11%). The final result was Monza 2–0 Bari. In 1 previous meetings, Monza have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bari.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
4
8
Shots on target
0
2.01
Actual xG
0.21
0
Saves
5
65%
Possession
35%
7
Corners
1
16
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽P. Obiang
· ast. A. Petagna
50'
64'
Giulio Maggiore
P. Obiang
/ L. Colombo
66'
66'
M. Verreth
/
G. Maggiore
66'
M. Dorval
/
M. Mane
D. Mota
/ G. Caso
67'
S. Birindelli
/ A. Bakoune
67'
Andrea Petagna
70'
⚽M. Pessina
· ast. G. Caso
79'
82'
N. Cavuoti
/
K. Piscopo
82'
M. Cuni
/
T. Esteves
A. Petagna
/ A. Alvarez
83'
83'
C. Gytkjaer
/
G. Moncini
L. Lucchesi
/ A. Carboni
89'
90'+4
Mehdi Dorval
Pre-match prediction
65.78%
Monza ←
22.58%
X
11.64%
Bari
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Monza)
65.78%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.08
2.01
-0.07
0.90
0.21
-0.69
Monza dominated by xG (2.01 vs 0.21).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
20
G
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
89'
D
Lorenzo Lucchesi
89'
D
15
Filippo Delli Carri
D
Filippo Delli Carri
D
13
D
7
Paulo Azzi
M
Paulo Azzi
M
32
Matteo Pessina
1 ⚽
M
Matteo Pessina
1 ⚽
M
14
Pedro Obiang
1 ⚽
66'
M
Pedro Obiang
1 ⚽
66'
M
19
Samuele Birindelli
67'
M
Samuele Birindelli
67'
M
47
Dany Mota
67'
F
Dany Mota
67'
F
28
Andrea Colpani
F
Andrea Colpani
F
37
A. Petagna
1 👟
83'
F
A. Petagna
1 👟
83'
F
Bench
24
Adam Bakoune
29'
D
Adam Bakoune
29'
D
30
Giuseppe Caso
1 👟
29'
M
Giuseppe Caso
1 👟
29'
M
8
Hernani
M
Hernani
M
26
Patrick Ciurria
F
Patrick Ciurria
F
1
G
13
Valerio Mantovani
D
Valerio Mantovani
D
26
Cas Odenthal
D
Cas Odenthal
D
51
A. Cistana
D
28
Kevin Piscopo
82'
M
Kevin Piscopo
82'
M
80
Federico Artioli
M
Federico Artioli
M
18
Giulio Maggiore
66'
M
Giulio Maggiore
66'
M
30
Moussa Mane
66'
M
Moussa Mane
66'
M
17
F
19
Tomás Esteves
82'
F
Tomás Esteves
82'
F
11
G. Moncini
83'
F
G. Moncini
83'
F
Bench
66
Daouda Traore
M
Daouda Traore
M
43
Dimitrios Nikolaou
D
Dimitrios Nikolaou
D
90
Marvin Çuni
14'
F
Marvin Çuni
14'
F
27
Matthias Braunöder
M
Matthias Braunöder
M
29
Matthias Verreth
30'
M
Matthias Verreth
30'
M
93
M. Dorval
30'
D
M. Dorval
30'
D
8
Riccardo Pagano
M
Riccardo Pagano
M
Best on the pitch
Pedro Obiang
M · Monza
8.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 62 pass
Matteo Pessina
M · Monza
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 77 pass
Andrea Colpani
F · Monza
7.90
2 shots
· 41 pass
Samuele Birindelli
M · Monza
7.70
2 shots
· 30 pass
Giuseppe Caso
M · Monza
7.50
1 👟
1 shots
· 11 pass
Adam Bakoune
D · Monza
7.30
· 4 pass
Monza — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 45 | 32% | — | — | — | |
| Lorenzo Lucchesi | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 78 | 74% | — | — | — |
| Filippo Delli Carri | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 49% | 5 | — | — |
| D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 32% | 2 | — | — | |
| Paulo Azzi | M | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Matteo Pessina | M | 96 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 77 | 66% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Obiang | M | 66 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 62 | 55% | — | — | — |
| Samuele Birindelli | M | 67 | 7.70 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Dany Mota | F | 67 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Andrea Colpani | F | 96 | 7.90 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 36% | 5 | — | — |
| A. Petagna | F | 83 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 24 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| Adam Bakoune | D | 29 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| Giuseppe Caso | M | 29 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
Bari — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| Valerio Mantovani | D | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Cas Odenthal | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 35% | 5 | — | — |
| A. Cistana | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Kevin Piscopo | M | 82 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| Federico Artioli | M | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| Giulio Maggiore | M | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Moussa Mane | M | 66 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| F | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 7% | 1 | — | — | |
| Tomás Esteves | F | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 25% | — | — | — |
| G. Moncini | F | 83 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Marvin Çuni | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Matthias Verreth | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 18% | — | — | — |
| M. Dorval | D | 30 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Monza vs Bari?
The final score was Monza 2–0 Bari.
What did the model predict before Monza vs Bari?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Monza win, 22% to a draw, and 11% to an Bari win.