✗Model wrong — prediction Monza, result Catanzaro wins
39'
(ast. S. Pontisso)
Fellipe Jack
78'
(ast. C. Favasuli)
R. Frosinini
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Monza a 59% win probability (draw 19%, Catanzaro 20%). The final result was Monza 0–2 Catanzaro. In 3 previous meetings, Monza have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Catanzaro.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
13
4
Shots on target
8
0.61
Actual xG
1.16
6
Saves
4
33%
Possession
67%
3
Corners
3
24
Tackles
14
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
25'
S. Pontisso
39'
ast. S. Pontisso ·
Fellipe Jack⚽
D. Mota
/ A. Petagna
46'
46'
M. Pompetti
/
S. Pontisso
55'
G. Alesi
/
F. Di Francesco
63'
R. Frosinini
/
Fellipe Jack
P. Cutrone
/ G. Caso
69'
A. Carboni
/ L. Lucchesi
70'
A. Bakoune
/ V. Antov
74'
78'
N. Koffi
/
M. Liberali
78'
M. D'Alessandro
/
T. Cassandro
78'
ast. C. Favasuli ·
R. Frosinini⚽
Hernani
/ P. Obiang
83'
85'
R. Frosinini
D. Mota
85'
S. Birindelli
87'
90'+2
N. Koffi
V. Antov
90'+3
D. Thiam
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
59.83%
Monza
19.93%
X
20.25%
Catanzaro ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Catanzaro)
20.25%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.29
0.61
-1.68
1.22
1.16
-0.06
Catanzaro dominated by xG (1.16 vs 0.61).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
20
Demba Thiam
G
Demba Thiam
G
44
Andrea Carboni
70'
D
Andrea Carboni
70'
D
15
Filippo Delli Carri
D
Filippo Delli Carri
D
19
Samuele Birindelli
D
Samuele Birindelli
D
7
Paulo Azzi
M
Paulo Azzi
M
32
Matteo Pessina
M
Matteo Pessina
M
21
Leonardo Colombo
M
Leonardo Colombo
M
24
Adam Bakoune
74'
M
Adam Bakoune
74'
M
47
Dany Mota
45'
F
Dany Mota
45'
F
8
Hernani
83'
F
Hernani
83'
F
10
Patrick Cutrone
69'
F
Patrick Cutrone
69'
F
Bench
25
Agustín Álvarez
F
Agustín Álvarez
F
28
Andrea Colpani
M
Andrea Colpani
M
37
A. Petagna
54'
F
A. Petagna
54'
F
2
Arvid Brorsson
D
Arvid Brorsson
D
30
Giuseppe Caso
30'
M
Giuseppe Caso
30'
M
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
29'
D
Lorenzo Lucchesi
29'
D
13
Luca Ravanelli
D
Luca Ravanelli
D
26
Patrick Ciurria
F
Patrick Ciurria
F
14
Pedro Obiang
16'
M
Pedro Obiang
16'
M
27
Samuele Capolupo
D
Samuele Capolupo
D
1
Semuel Pizzignacco
G
Semuel Pizzignacco
G
6
Valentin Antov
25'
D
Valentin Antov
25'
D
22
Mirko Pigliacelli
G
Mirko Pigliacelli
G
6
Fellipe Jack
1 ⚽
63'
D
Fellipe Jack
1 ⚽
63'
D
4
Matias Antonini
D
Matias Antonini
D
84
Tommaso Cassandro
78'
D
Tommaso Cassandro
78'
D
94
Federico Di Francesco
55'
M
Federico Di Francesco
55'
M
20
S. Pontisso
1 👟
45'
M
S. Pontisso
1 👟
45'
M
10
J. Petriccione
M
J. Petriccione
M
27
Costantino Favasuli
1 👟
M
Costantino Favasuli
1 👟
M
14
Mattia Liberali
78'
F
Mattia Liberali
78'
F
9
P. Iemmello
F
P. Iemmello
F
8
F. Pittarello
F
F. Pittarello
F
Bench
26
Bruno Verrengia
D
Bruno Verrengia
D
1
Christian Marietta
G
Christian Marietta
G
5
Ervin Bashi
D
Ervin Bashi
D
32
Fabio Rispoli
M
Fabio Rispoli
M
30
Gabriele Alesi
44'
F
Gabriele Alesi
44'
F
77
Marco D'Alessandro
21'
F
Marco D'Alessandro
21'
F
21
Marco Pompetti
54'
M
Marco Pompetti
54'
M
39
N'Dri Koffi
21'
F
N'Dri Koffi
21'
F
23
Nicolò Brighenti
D
Nicolò Brighenti
D
19
P. Nuamah
F
P. Nuamah
F
28
Rémi Oudin
M
Rémi Oudin
M
62
R. Frosinini
1 ⚽
36'
D
R. Frosinini
1 ⚽
36'
D
Best on the pitch
Fellipe Jack
D · Catanzaro
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 51 pass
Demba Thiam
G · Monza
8.20
· 28 pass
R. Frosinini
D · Catanzaro
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 13 pass
J. Petriccione
M · Catanzaro
7.50
· 81 pass
Matias Antonini
D · Catanzaro
7.50
· 79 pass
S. Pontisso
M · Catanzaro
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 49 pass
Monza — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demba Thiam | G | 99 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Andrea Carboni | D | 70 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Filippo Delli Carri | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| Samuele Birindelli | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Paulo Azzi | M | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Matteo Pessina | M | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Colombo | M | 99 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Adam Bakoune | M | 74 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 6 | — | — |
| Dany Mota | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hernani | F | 83 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Patrick Cutrone | F | 69 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Petagna | F | 54 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Giuseppe Caso | M | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Lorenzo Lucchesi | D | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Obiang | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
| Valentin Antov | D | 25 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | 1 | — |
Catanzaro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirko Pigliacelli | G | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Fellipe Jack | D | 63 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 51 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| Matias Antonini | D | 99 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 79 | 75% | 3 | — | — |
| Tommaso Cassandro | D | 78 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 49 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Federico Di Francesco | M | 55 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| S. Pontisso | M | 45 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 49 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Petriccione | M | 99 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 81 | 71% | 2 | — | — |
| Costantino Favasuli | M | 99 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Mattia Liberali | F | 78 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Iemmello | F | 99 | 5.00 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 14% | — | — | — |
| F. Pittarello | F | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Gabriele Alesi | F | 44 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Marco D'Alessandro | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Marco Pompetti | M | 54 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| N'Dri Koffi | F | 21 | 6.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Frosinini | D | 36 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 13 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Monza vs Catanzaro?
The final score was Monza 0–2 Catanzaro.
What did the model predict before Monza vs Catanzaro?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Monza win, 19% to a draw, and 20% to an Catanzaro win.