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← Serie A

Monza - Napoli

Serie A October 28, 2026 20:45 Stadio Brianteo, Monza
Monza
#15 · 7 pts
vs
Napoli
#10 · 11 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 13.0°C 💨 4 km/h · Monza
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.05%
Win
Monza
27.81%
Draw
42.14%
Win
Napoli
1.13
Expected xG
1.48

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.14%)
1X2 Result
1 30%
X 28%
2 42%
Double Chance
1X 58%
X2 70%
12 72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 85.5% hit rate (83 picks)
Over 2.5 54%
✓ 60.3% hit rate (73 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Napoli a 42% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Monza. Expected goals are 1.1 for Monza and 1.5 for Napoli (total 2.6), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.14% probability.

Season Stats

Monza
2W 1D 5L
Napoli
6W 4D 5L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
1.6
2.2
Conceded
1.1
5.5
Shots OT
5.2
4.0
Corners
5.9
45%
Poss.
56%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
73%
88%
O 2.5
47%
88%
BTTS
40%
13%
Clean Sht
47%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Serie A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
39%
O 3.5
59%
BTTS
Monza
2W 0D 1L · at home
Napoli
4W 3D 3L · away
2.7
gls/g
1.3
1.3
Conceded
0.9
67%
Win %
40%
67%
Win or Draw
70%
100%
O 1.5
70%
100%
O 2.5
40%
67%
O 3.5
10%
67%
BTTS
50%
33%
Clean Sht
40%
0%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Monza Napoli →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4% 10.9% 8.0% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4%
1 8.3% 12.3% 9.1% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5%
2 4.7% 7.0% 5.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
3 1.8% 2.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Monza Monza
L Torino 3–2
W Cagliari 4–0
L Lazio 3–1
W Sassuolo 2–1
L Lecce 3–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Napoli Napoli
D AS Roma 3–3
L Venezia 1–0
W Frosinone 3–0
D Fiorentina 1–1
W Bologna 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Monza Monza
Attack
50
Defence
50
Form
37
Napoli Napoli
Attack
54
Defence
66
Form
49
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Lazio Lazio 9 25
2 Inter Inter 8 22
3 AS Roma AS Roma 9 21
4 Como Como 9 20
5 AC Milan AC Milan 8 18
6 Frosinone Frosinone 8 14
7 Juventus Juventus 8 14
8 Torino Torino 9 13
9 Cagliari Cagliari 9 13
10 Napoli Napoli 8 11
11 Atalanta Atalanta 8 10
12 Lecce Lecce 8 9
13 Bologna Bologna 8 8
14 Sassuolo Sassuolo 9 8
15 Monza Monza 8 7
16 Genoa Genoa 8 7
17 Udinese Udinese 8 4
18 Fiorentina Fiorentina 8 4
19 Parma Parma 8 4
20 Venezia Venezia 8 3
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
The model gives Monza a 30% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 42% for an Napoli win.
How many goals are expected in Monza vs Napoli?
Expected goals: Monza 1.1, Napoli 1.5 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Monza vs Napoli?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.14%.