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Morecambe - Hereford

National League North November 10, 2026 20:45
Morecambe
#10 · 20 pts
vs
Hereford
#2 · 26 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
41.32%
Win
Morecambe
24.62%
Draw
34.06%
Win
Hereford
1.83
Expected xG
1.61

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.64%)
1X2 Result ✓ 61.5% hit rate (13 picks)
1 41%
X 25%
2 34%
Double Chance ✓ 84.6% hit rate (13 picks)
1X 66%
X2 59%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 55%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Morecambe a 41% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Hereford. Expected goals are 1.8 for Morecambe and 1.6 for Hereford (total 3.4), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.64% probability.

Season Stats

Morecambe
6W 2D 5L
Hereford
9W 3D 3L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.9
0.9
Conceded
0.7
Percentages
69%
O 1.5
73%
54%
O 2.5
60%
54%
BTTS
47%
31%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in National League North. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
19%
O 3.5
47%
BTTS
Morecambe
4W 1D 1L · at home
Hereford
5W 2D 3L · away
1.8
gls/g
1.6
0.5
Conceded
1.1
67%
Win %
50%
83%
Win or Draw
70%
67%
O 1.5
80%
50%
O 2.5
70%
17%
O 3.5
20%
33%
BTTS
60%
50%
Clean Sht
40%
17%
Failed to Score
0%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Morecambe Hereford →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.2% 5.2% 4.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
1 5.9% 9.5% 7.6% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.7% 7.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
3 3.3% 5.3% 4.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
4 1.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% —

Recent form

Morecambe Morecambe
W Darlington 1883 1–0
W Merthyr Town 1–3
L Worksop Town 2–1
D Oxford City 1–1
W Brackley Town 3–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 41%
Hereford Hereford
L AFC Telford United 0–1
W Macclesfield 1–2
L Hednesford Town 0–1
D Bedford Town 1–1
W South Shields 6–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 37%

Playing profile

Morecambe Morecambe
Attack
50
Defence
77
Form
66
Hereford Hereford
Attack
43
Defence
84
Form
66
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Oxford City Oxford City 13 27
2 Hereford Hereford 13 26
3 South Shields South Shields 13 26
4 Macclesfield Macclesfield 12 24
5 Chester Chester 13 23
6 Buxton Buxton 14 23
7 Bedford Town Bedford Town 13 22
8 Hednesford Town Hednesford Town 14 21
9 King's Lynn Town King's Lynn Town 14 21
10 Morecambe Morecambe 13 20
11 Chorley Chorley 13 20
12 Worksop Town Worksop Town 14 20
13 Hebburn Town Hebburn Town 13 19
14 Spalding United Spalding United 13 18
15 Marine Marine 13 16
16 Harborough Town Harborough Town 13 16
17 AFC Telford United AFC Telford United 14 16
18 Brackley Town Brackley Town 14 16
19 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 13 15
20 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 14 15
21 Radcliffe Radcliffe 14 15
22 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 14 11
23 Southport Southport 13 10
24 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 13 7
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Morecambe vs Hereford?
The model gives Morecambe a 41% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 34% for an Hereford win.
How many goals are expected in Morecambe vs Hereford?
Expected goals: Morecambe 1.8, Hereford 1.6 (total 3.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Morecambe vs Hereford?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.64%.