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Morecambe - Southport

FA Cup September 19, 2026 16:00
Morecambe
vs
Southport
⚡ Pre-match analysis
50.96%
Win
Morecambe
23.77%
Draw
25.27%
Win
Southport
2.03
Expected xG
1.16

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (9.75%)
1X2 Result
1 51%
X 24%
2 25%
Double Chance
1X 75%
X2 49%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Morecambe a 50% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Southport. Expected goals are 2.0 for Morecambe and 1.2 for Southport (total 3.2), with a 88% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.75% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Morecambe have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Southport.

Season Stats

Morecambe
0W 1D 1L
Southport
2W 1D 1L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
2.0
1.5
Conceded
1.8
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
75%
50%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in FA Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
100%
BTTS
Morecambe
0W 1D 0L · at home
Southport
1W 1D 0L · away
1.0
gls/g
2.0
1.0
Conceded
1.0
0%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
50%
100%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Morecambe Southport →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.1% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 8.3% 9.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.5% 9.8% 5.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.7% 6.7% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
5 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% —

Recent form

Morecambe Morecambe
L Chester 2–0
D Chester 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 28%
Southport Southport
L FC Halifax Town 1–3
W Morpeth Town 1–3
W Radcliffe 3–2
D Radcliffe 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 14%

Playing profile

Morecambe Morecambe
Attack
32
Defence
75
Form
57
Southport Southport
Attack
34
Defence
53
Form
43
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Morecambe
0
Draw
1
Southport
8 Sep 2026 National League North 1–2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Morecambe vs Southport?
The model gives Morecambe a 50% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 25% for an Southport win.
How many goals are expected in Morecambe vs Southport?
Expected goals: Morecambe 2.0, Southport 1.2 (total 3.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 88%.
What is the most likely score in Morecambe vs Southport?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.75%.