Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 16:30

Moreirense

#10 · 11 pts

0 – 1

Final score

Arouca

#5 · 17 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 39% win probability (draw 24%, Moreirense 36%). The final result was Moreirense 0–1 Arouca. In 2 previous meetings, Moreirense have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Arouca.

Match statistics

2

Shots on target

2

0.59

Actual xG

1.69

49%

Possession

51%

3

Corners

7

Pre-match prediction

36.34%

Moreirense

24.31%

X

39.35%

Arouca ←

we assigned to the actual result (Arouca) 39.35% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Moreirense

1.17

0.59

-0.58

Arouca

1.66

1.69

+0.03

Arouca dominated by xG (1.69 vs 0.59). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	27
2	Benfica	9	22
3	Sporting CP	9	18
4	Santa Clara	9	18
5	Arouca	9	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	17
7	GIL Vicente	9	14
8	Alverca	9	11
9	SC Braga	9	11
10	Moreirense	9	11
11	Famalicao	9	10
12	Estrela	9	10
13	Vitória SC	9	8
14	Maritimo	9	8
15	Nacional	9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	7
17	Rio Ave	9	7
18	Estoril	9	2