Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 32
May 02, 2026 16:30
Alanzinho
45'+1
L. Semedo
(ast. Kiko)
73'
Maracas
90'+4
(pen.)
13'
Jovane
(pen.)
36'
I. Stoica
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estrela a 34% win probability (draw 33%, Moreirense 32%). The final result was Moreirense 3–2 Estrela. In 1 previous meetings, Moreirense have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Estrela.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
3
1.68
Actual xG
2.75
1
Saves
2
66%
Possession
34%
1
Corners
4
16
Tackles
15
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
Caio
12'
13'
(pen.)
Jovane⚽
25'
Rodrigo Pinho
31'
M. Scholze
36'
(pen.)
I. Stoica⚽
Rodri
40'
⚽Alanzinho
45'+1
⚽Alanzinho
(missed pen.)
45'
A. Assis
/ Yan Maranhao
46'
M. Stjepanovic
/ N. John
46'
Fabiano
50'
64'
S. van Hooijdonk
/
Rodrigo Pinho
Landerson
/ Kiko
68'
Alanzinho
/ L. Semedo
68'
69'
J. Encada
/
B. Langa
69'
K. Jansson
/
Jovane
⚽L. Semedo
· ast. Kiko
73'
Fabiano
/ L. Santos
76'
77'
J. Encada
81'
J. Meireles
/
A. Sola
81'
T. Moustier
/
A. Marcus
G. Batista
90'+4
90'+4
Otavio
⚽Maracas
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
32.08%
Moreirense ←
33.82%
X
34.1%
Estrela
we assigned to the actual result (Moreirense)
32.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.68
1.68
+1.0
0.86
2.75
+1.89
Estrela dominated by xG (2.75 vs 1.68).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Caio Secco
G
Caio Secco
G
2
Diogo Travassos
D
Diogo Travassos
D
26
Maracás
1 ⚽
D
Maracás
1 ⚽
D
66
Gilberto Batista
D
Gilberto Batista
D
70
Fabiano Souza
76'
D
Fabiano Souza
76'
D
21
Rodrigo Alonso
M
Rodrigo Alonso
M
25
Afonso Assis
45'
M
Afonso Assis
45'
M
78
Landerson
68'
M
Landerson
68'
M
8
Mateja Stjepanović
45'
M
Mateja Stjepanović
45'
M
10
Kiko Bondoso
M
Kiko Bondoso
M
11
Alan
1 ⚽
68'
F
Alan
1 ⚽
68'
F
Bench
13
André Ferreira
G
André Ferreira
G
7
Cedric Teguia
F
Cedric Teguia
F
27
Kiko
1 👟
22'
D
Kiko
1 👟
22'
D
9
Luís Semedo
1 ⚽
22'
F
Luís Semedo
1 ⚽
22'
F
23
Nile John
45'
M
Nile John
45'
M
99
Yan Maranhão
45'
F
Yan Maranhão
45'
F
40
G
24
Bruno Langa
70'
D
Bruno Langa
70'
D
83
Otavio
D
Otavio
D
30
Luan Patrick
D
Luan Patrick
D
21
Max Scholze
D
Max Scholze
D
63
Alex Sola
81'
M
Alex Sola
81'
M
19
M
10
Ianis Stoica
1 ⚽
M
Ianis Stoica
1 ⚽
M
11
Jovane Cabral
1 ⚽
70'
M
Jovane Cabral
1 ⚽
70'
M
99
A. Marcus
81'
M
A. Marcus
81'
M
9
Rodrigo Pinho
64'
F
Rodrigo Pinho
64'
F
Bench
39
Eddy Doué
M
Eddy Doué
M
17
Jefferson Encada
20'
D
Jefferson Encada
20'
D
18
Jorge Meireles
9'
F
Jorge Meireles
9'
F
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
20'
M
Kevin Höög Jansson
20'
M
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
26'
F
Sydney van Hooijdonk
26'
F
Best on the pitch
Maracás
D · Moreirense
8.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 79 pass
Rodrigo Alonso
M · Moreirense
7.90
1 shots
· 60 pass
Luís Semedo
F · Moreirense
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 7 pass
Jovane Cabral
M · Estrela
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
Jefferson Encada
D · Estrela
7.30
· 9 pass
Landerson
M · Moreirense
7.30
· 28 pass
Moreirense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Secco | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | — | 1 | — |
| Diogo Travassos | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 49% | 4 | — | — |
| Maracás | D | 90 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 79 | 71% | 3 | — | — |
| Gilberto Batista | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 89 | 81% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Fabiano Souza | D | 76 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 40% | — | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Alonso | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 55% | — | 1 | — |
| Afonso Assis | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Landerson | M | 68 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateja Stjepanović | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Kiko Bondoso | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Alan | F | 68 | 6.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Kiko | D | 22 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 7 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Luís Semedo | F | 22 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Nile John | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Yan Maranhão | F | 45 | 5.60 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 10% | — | — | — | |
| Bruno Langa | D | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Otavio | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Luan Patrick | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Max Scholze | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | 5 | 1 | — |
| Alex Sola | M | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 2 | — | — | |
| Ianis Stoica | M | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Jovane Cabral | M | 70 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Marcus | M | 81 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinho | F | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 20 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Jorge Meireles | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | M | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Moreirense vs Estrela?
The final score was Moreirense 3–2 Estrela.
What did the model predict before Moreirense vs Estrela?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Moreirense win, 33% to a draw, and 34% to an Estrela win.