Morocco - Gabon
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 25, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
62.29%
Win
Morocco
20.43%
Draw
17.28%
Win
Gabon
3.22
0.97
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Morocco
62.29%
Probability
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(8.98%)
1X2 Result
1
62%
X
20%
2
17%
Double Chance
1X
83%
X2
38%
12
80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
55%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Morocco a 62% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Gabon. Expected goals are 3.2 for Morocco and 1.0 for Gabon (total 4.2), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.98% probability.
Season Stats
7W
4D
1L
0W
1D
4L
Averages per game
1.6
Goals
1.4
0.6
Conceded
2.4
4.2
Shots OT
—
4.7
Corners
—
59%
Poss.
—
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
80%
25%
O 2.5
80%
33%
BTTS
80%
58%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 12 matches across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
46%
O 3.5
59%
BTTS
3W
1D
0L
· at home
0W
1D
2L
· away
2.0
gls/g
1.0
0.8
Conceded
2.0
75%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
33%
75%
O 1.5
67%
25%
O 2.5
67%
25%
O 3.5
67%
50%
BTTS
67%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
33%
last 4
ℹ
Home/away records across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Score Matrix
↕ Morocco
Gabon →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — |
| 2 | 7.9% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — |
| 5 | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — |
Playing profile
Morocco
Attack
45
Defence
74
Form
61
Gabon
Attack
36
Defence
39
Form
36
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Morocco vs Gabon?
The model gives Morocco a 62% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 17% for an Gabon win.
How many goals are expected in Morocco vs Gabon?
Expected goals: Morocco 3.2, Gabon 1.0 (total 4.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Morocco vs Gabon?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.98%.