Morocco - Niger
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
56.71%
Win
Morocco
29.36%
Draw
13.93%
Win
Niger
1.27
0.35
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Morocco
56.71%
Probability
60.0%
1X2 accuracy · 5 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(22.85%)
1X2 Result
1
57%
X
29%
2
14%
Double Chance
1X
86%
X2
43%
12
71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
80%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
57%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Morocco a 56% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 13% for Niger. Expected goals are 1.3 for Morocco and 0.4 for Niger (total 1.6), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 22.85% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
0L
1W
0D
1L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.0
0.0
Conceded
1.5
4.5
Shots OT
3.0
5.0
Corners
4.5
72%
Poss.
46%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
BTTS
50%
100%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Morocco
Niger →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 1 | 25.1% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 2 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 3 | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% | — | — | — |
| 4 | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Morocco
Attack
42
Defence
76
Form
65
Niger
Attack
20
Defence
66
Form
25
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
What's at stake · Group A
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #3 |
| → Morocco | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Niger | #1 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Morocco vs Niger?
The model gives Morocco a 56% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 13% for an Niger win.
How many goals are expected in Morocco vs Niger?
Expected goals: Morocco 1.3, Niger 0.4 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Morocco vs Niger?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 22.85%.