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Mortágua - Leça

Taça de Portugal September 20, 2026 16:00
Mortágua
vs
Leça
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.43%
Win
Mortágua
33.16%
Draw
34.41%
Win
Leça
0.57
Expected xG
1.14

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (13.33%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 33%
2 34%
Double Chance
1X 66%
X2 68%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Leça a 34% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Mortágua. Expected goals are 0.6 for Mortágua and 1.1 for Leça (total 1.7), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.33% probability.

Season Stats

Mortágua
2W 2D 1L
Leça
0W 0D 1L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
0.0
1.0
Conceded
2.0
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
100%
40%
O 2.5
0%
20%
BTTS
0%
60%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
0%
BTTS
Mortágua
1W 1D 0L · at home
Leça
0W 0D 1L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.0
0.0
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
0%
50%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
0%
100%
Clean Sht
0%
50%
Failed to Score
100%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Mortágua Leça →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 18.1% 20.6% 11.7% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3%
1 10.4% 11.8% 6.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
2 3.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% —
3 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% — —
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Mortágua Mortágua
D SC Covilha 0–0
L Vitória SC 4–0
W Portimonense B 2–0
D Os Marialvas 0–0
W Carregal 1–2
Leça Leça
L Rebordosa 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 16%

Playing profile

Mortágua Mortágua
Attack
7
Defence
88
Form
52
Leça Leça
Attack
27
Defence
58
Form
49
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mortágua vs Leça?
The model gives Mortágua a 32% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 34% for an Leça win.
How many goals are expected in Mortágua vs Leça?
Expected goals: Mortágua 0.6, Leça 1.1 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Mortágua vs Leça?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.33%.