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← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Mozambique - Ethiopia

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 11, 2026 18:00
Mozambique
#2 · 4 pts
vs
Ethiopia
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.46%
Win
Mozambique
36.63%
Draw
26.9%
Win
Ethiopia
0.78
Expected xG
0.57

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (18.49%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 37%
2 27%
Double Chance
1X 73%
X2 64%
12 63%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 56%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mozambique a 36% win probability, against 36% for a draw and 26% for Ethiopia. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mozambique and 0.6 for Ethiopia (total 1.3), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.49% probability.

Season Stats

Mozambique
1W 1D 0L
Ethiopia
2W 0D 2L
Averages per game
2.5
Goals
1.0
1.0
Conceded
0.5
3.5
Shots OT
3.0
2.0
Corners
5.0
50%
Poss.
39%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
25%
50%
O 2.5
25%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Mozambique
1W 1D 0L · at home
Ethiopia
1W 0D 1L · away
2.5
gls/g
1.5
1.0
Conceded
0.5
50%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
50%
50%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Mozambique Ethiopia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 26.1% 14.8% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% —
1 20.2% 11.5% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% —
2 7.8% 4.5% 1.3% 0.2% — —
3 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% — —
4 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 0.1% — — — — —

Recent form

Mozambique Mozambique
W Sudan 4–1
D Senegal 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Ethiopia Ethiopia
L Senegal 0–1
L Sudan 1–0
W Sao Tome and Principe 1–0
W Sao Tome and Principe 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Mozambique Mozambique
Attack
34
Defence
53
Form
37
Ethiopia Ethiopia
Attack
24
Defence
83
Form
19
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group J

# Team G Pts
1 Senegal Senegal 2 4
2 Mozambique Mozambique 2 4
3 Sudan Sudan 2 3
4 Ethiopia Ethiopia 2 0

What's at stake · Group J

Top 2 advance to the next round

Mozambique Ethiopia
Current #2 #4
→ Mozambique #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #4
→ Ethiopia #1 #4

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mozambique vs Ethiopia?
The model gives Mozambique a 36% win probability, 36% for a draw, and 26% for an Ethiopia win.
How many goals are expected in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?
Expected goals: Mozambique 0.8, Ethiopia 0.6 (total 1.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.49%.