Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 30
April 18, 2026 16:30
J. Ramirez
(ast. Jose Gomes)
67'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nacional a 38% win probability (draw 27%, Alverca 34%). The final result was Nacional 1–0 Alverca. In 2 previous meetings, Nacional have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Alverca.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
5
6
Shots on target
4
1.03
Actual xG
0.47
4
Saves
5
50%
Possession
50%
4
Corners
8
23
Tackles
4
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
38'
Rhaldney
46'
D. Gui
/
Rhaldney
Daniel Junior
/ F. Soares
63'
⚽J. Ramirez
· ast. Jose Gomes
67'
75'
V. Moreira
/
Lincoln
75'
Marezi
/
Sandro Lima
75'
M. Clairicia
/
Figueiredo
C. Labidi
78'
Gabriel Veron
87'
Gabriel Veron
/ Matheus Dias
87'
88'
Z. Kassary
/
Chiquinho
Liziero
/ J. Aurelio
90'+3
J. Ramirez
/ Pablo Ruan
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
38.21%
Nacional ←
27.31%
X
34.48%
Alverca
we assigned to the actual result (Nacional)
38.21%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.19
1.03
-0.16
1.26
0.47
-0.79
Nacional dominated by xG (1.03 vs 0.47).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
5
José Gomes
1 👟
D
José Gomes
1 👟
D
38
Zé Vitor
D
Zé Vitor
D
33
D
16
Alan Núñez
D
Alan Núñez
D
28
Liziero
M
Liziero
M
15
C. Labidi
M
C. Labidi
M
10
Daniel Júnior
63'
M
Daniel Júnior
63'
M
11
Paulinho Bóia
F
Paulinho Bóia
F
9
C. Ramírez
1 ⚽
F
C. Ramírez
1 ⚽
F
27
Gabriel Veron
87'
F
Bench
22
Filipe Soares
34'
M
Filipe Soares
34'
M
26
Joel da Silva
M
Joel da Silva
M
6
Matheus Dias
10'
M
Matheus Dias
10'
M
7
Witi
F
Witi
F
31
G
33
D
5
Sergi Gómez
D
Sergi Gómez
D
4
Kaiky Naves
D
Kaiky Naves
D
12
M
18
Lincoln
75'
M
Lincoln
75'
M
26
Rhaldney
45'
M
Rhaldney
45'
M
2
M
10
Chiquinho
88'
F
Chiquinho
88'
F
91
Sandro Lima
75'
F
Sandro Lima
75'
F
20
Figueiredo
75'
F
Figueiredo
75'
F
Bench
11
C. Nuozzi
F
C. Nuozzi
F
9
M. Milovanović
22'
F
M. Milovanović
22'
F
Best on the pitch
C. Ramírez
F · Nacional
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 19 pass
Zé Vitor
D · Nacional
7.60
1 shots
· 47 pass
D · Nacional
7.60
· 39 pass
Alan Núñez
D · Nacional
7.60
· 36 pass
Liziero
M · Nacional
7.50
1 shots
· 34 pass
José Gomes
D · Nacional
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 34 pass
Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| José Gomes | D | 97 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 34 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | D | 97 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 39 | 38% | 2 | — | — | |
| Alan Núñez | D | 97 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Liziero | M | 93 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 5 | — | — |
| C. Labidi | M | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Daniel Júnior | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Paulinho Bóia | F | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Ramírez | F | 93 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 19 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Veron | F | 87 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 27% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Filipe Soares | M | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Dias | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alverca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 54 | 49% | — | — | — | |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Kaiky Naves | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 62 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| M | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — | |
| Lincoln | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Rhaldney | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| M | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | 3 | 33 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| Chiquinho | F | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Sandro Lima | F | 75 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Figueiredo | F | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 15% | — | — | — |
| M. Milovanović | F | 22 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nacional vs Alverca?
The final score was Nacional 1–0 Alverca.
What did the model predict before Nacional vs Alverca?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Nacional win, 27% to a draw, and 34% to an Alverca win.