Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 32
May 02, 2026 16:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Nacional, result AVS wins
F. Soares
4'
22'
(ast. T. Akinsola)
Pedro Lima
63'
(ast. D. Duarte)
G. Neiva
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nacional a 55% win probability (draw 27%, AVS 16%). The final result was Nacional 1–2 AVS. In 1 previous meetings, Nacional have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for AVS.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
3
1.81
Actual xG
1.54
1
Saves
4
68%
Possession
32%
8
Corners
6
18
Tackles
19
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽F. Soares
4'
22'
ast. T. Akinsola ·
Pedro Lima⚽
Gabriel Veron
41'
45'
Paulo Vitor
Gabriel Veron
/ Liziero
46'
C. Labidi
55'
Ze Vitor
59'
63'
ast. D. Duarte ·
G. Neiva⚽
64'
Ponck
/
T. Galletto
Daniel Junior
/ L. Joao
71'
C. Labidi
/ Pablo Ruan
71'
72'
Tomane
/
G. Neiva
Jose Gomes
/ Witi
88'
A. Nunez
/ J. Aurelio
88'
89'
Adriel
Ze Vitor
90'+4
Ze Vitor
90'+4
90'
G. Molina
/
T. Akinsola
Pre-match prediction
55.13%
Nacional
27.94%
X
16.93%
AVS ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (AVS)
16.93%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.24
1.81
+0.57
0.56
1.54
+0.98
xG dominance was balanced (1.81 – 1.54).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
5
José Gomes
88'
D
José Gomes
88'
D
38
Zé Vitor
D
Zé Vitor
D
34
Léo Santos
D
Léo Santos
D
16
Alan Núñez
88'
D
Alan Núñez
88'
D
22
Filipe Soares
1 ⚽
M
Filipe Soares
1 ⚽
M
15
C. Labidi
71'
M
C. Labidi
71'
M
11
Paulinho Bóia
M
Paulinho Bóia
M
10
Daniel Júnior
71'
M
Daniel Júnior
71'
M
27
Gabriel Veron
45'
M
9
Jesús Ramírez
F
Jesús Ramírez
F
Bench
26
Joel da Silva
M
Joel da Silva
M
28
Liziero
45'
M
Liziero
45'
M
6
Matheus Dias
M
Matheus Dias
M
7
Witi
9'
F
Witi
9'
F
1
Adriel
G
Adriel
G
12
L. Rivas
D
3
Paulo Vitor
D
Paulo Vitor
D
42
C. Devenish
D
C. Devenish
D
97
D
8
Pedro Lima
1 ⚽
M
Pedro Lima
1 ⚽
M
70
M
19
T. Galletto
64'
M
T. Galletto
64'
M
21
Guilherme Neiva
1 ⚽
72'
F
20
Diego Duarte
1 👟
F
Diego Duarte
1 👟
F
11
Tunde Akinsola
1 👟
88'
F
Tunde Akinsola
1 👟
88'
F
Bench
26
Carlos Ponck
26'
D
14
Ó. Perea
F
Ó. Perea
F
93
Simão
G
7
Tómané
18'
F
Best on the pitch
Filipe Soares
M · Nacional
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 61 pass
Guilherme Neiva
F · AVS
8.20
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 6 pass
Pedro Lima
M · AVS
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 27 pass
L. Rivas
D · AVS
7.60
· 16 pass
José Gomes
D · Nacional
7.30
1 shots
· 27 pass
Paulinho Bóia
M · Nacional
7.30
1 shots
· 25 pass
Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| José Gomes | D | 88 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 22% | 5 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 57% | — | 2 | 1 |
| Léo Santos | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 60 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Alan Núñez | D | 88 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Filipe Soares | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 61 | 55% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Labidi | M | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Paulinho Bóia | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Júnior | M | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Veron | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jesús Ramírez | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 5 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Liziero | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Witi | F | 9 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
AVS — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adriel | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Rivas | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | 4 | — | — |
| Paulo Vitor | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | 3 | 1 | — |
| C. Devenish | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | 1 | — | — | |
| Pedro Lima | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 27 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 16% | 3 | — | — | |
| T. Galletto | M | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Neiva | F | 72 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Duarte | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Tunde Akinsola | F | 88 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Ponck | D | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Tómané | F | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nacional vs AVS?
The final score was Nacional 1–2 AVS.
What did the model predict before Nacional vs AVS?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Nacional win, 27% to a draw, and 16% to an AVS win.