Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 32
May 02, 2026 16:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Nacional, result AVS vince
F. Soares
4'
22'
(ast. T. Akinsola)
Pedro Lima
63'
(ast. D. Duarte)
G. Neiva
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nacional a 55% win probability (draw 27%, AVS 16%). The final result was Nacional 1–2 AVS. In 1 previous meetings, Nacional have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for AVS.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
3
1.81
Actual xG
1.54
1
Saves
4
68%
Possession
32%
8
Corners
6
18
Tackles
19
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽F. Soares
4'
22'
ast. T. Akinsola ·
Pedro Lima⚽
Gabriel Veron
41'
45'
Paulo Vitor
Gabriel Veron
/ Liziero
46'
C. Labidi
55'
Ze Vitor
59'
63'
ast. D. Duarte ·
G. Neiva⚽
64'
Ponck
/
T. Galletto
Daniel Junior
/ L. Joao
71'
C. Labidi
/ Pablo Ruan
71'
72'
Tomane
/
G. Neiva
Jose Gomes
/ Witi
88'
A. Nunez
/ J. Aurelio
88'
89'
Adriel
Ze Vitor
90'+4
Ze Vitor
90'+4
90'
G. Molina
/
T. Akinsola
Pre-match prediction
55.13%
Nacional
27.94%
X
16.93%
AVS ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (AVS)
16.93%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.24
1.81
+0.57
0.56
1.54
+0.98
xG dominance was balanced (1.81 – 1.54).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
5
José Gomes
88'
D
José Gomes
88'
D
38
Zé Vitor
D
Zé Vitor
D
34
Léo Santos
D
Léo Santos
D
16
Alan Núñez
88'
D
Alan Núñez
88'
D
22
Filipe Soares
1 ⚽
M
Filipe Soares
1 ⚽
M
15
Chiheb Labidi
71'
M
Chiheb Labidi
71'
M
11
Paulinho Bóia
M
Paulinho Bóia
M
10
Daniel Júnior
71'
M
Daniel Júnior
71'
M
27
Gabriel Veron
45'
M
Gabriel Veron
45'
M
9
C. Ramírez
F
C. Ramírez
F
Bench
26
Joel Silva
M
Joel Silva
M
28
Liziero
45'
M
6
Matheus Dias
M
Matheus Dias
M
7
Witiness Quembo
9'
F
Witiness Quembo
9'
F
1
Adriel
G
Adriel
G
12
Daniel Rivas
D
Daniel Rivas
D
3
Paulo Vitor
D
Paulo Vitor
D
42
Cristian Castro
D
Cristian Castro
D
97
D
8
Pedro Lima
1 ⚽
M
Pedro Lima
1 ⚽
M
70
M
19
T. Galletto
64'
M
T. Galletto
64'
M
21
Guilherme Neiva
1 ⚽
72'
F
Guilherme Neiva
1 ⚽
72'
F
20
Diego Duarte
1 👟
F
Diego Duarte
1 👟
F
11
Tunde Akinsola
1 👟
88'
F
Tunde Akinsola
1 👟
88'
F
Bench
14
Óscar Perea
F
Óscar Perea
F
26
Ponck
26'
D
Ponck
26'
D
93
Simão
G
Simão
G
7
Tomané
18'
F
Tomané
18'
F
Best on the pitch
Filipe Soares
M · Nacional
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 61 pass
Guilherme Neiva
F · AVS
8.20
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 6 pass
Pedro Lima
M · AVS
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 27 pass
Daniel Rivas
D · AVS
7.60
· 16 pass
José Gomes
D · Nacional
7.30
1 shots
· 27 pass
Paulinho Bóia
M · Nacional
7.30
1 shots
· 25 pass
Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| José Gomes | D | 88 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 22% | 5 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 57% | — | 2 | 1 |
| Léo Santos | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 60 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Alan Núñez | D | 88 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Filipe Soares | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 61 | 55% | 2 | — | — |
| Chiheb Labidi | M | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Paulinho Bóia | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Júnior | M | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Veron | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Ramírez | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 5 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Liziero | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Witiness Quembo | F | 9 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
AVS — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adriel | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Rivas | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | 4 | — | — |
| Paulo Vitor | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Cristian Castro | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | 1 | — | — | |
| Pedro Lima | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 27 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 16% | 3 | — | — | |
| T. Galletto | M | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Neiva | F | 72 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Duarte | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Tunde Akinsola | F | 88 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Ponck | D | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Tomané | F | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nacional vs AVS?
The final score was Nacional 1–2 AVS.
What did the model predict before Nacional vs AVS?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Nacional win, 27% to a draw, and 16% to an AVS win.