Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 28
April 04, 2026 16:30
J. Ramirez
2'
Paulinho Boia
(ast. Leo Santos)
71'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nacional a 39% win probability (draw 28%, Estrela 32%). The final result was Nacional 2–0 Estrela. In 2 previous meetings, Nacional have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Estrela.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
7
4
Shots on target
2
0.99
Actual xG
0.50
2
Saves
2
49%
Possession
51%
5
Corners
6
17
Tackles
16
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
1'
Luan Patrick
⚽J. Ramirez
2'
16'
Rodrigo Pinho
Léo Santos
45'+3
46'
T. Moustier
/
A. Sola
46'
Jovane
/
I. Stoica
M. Baeza
/ Daniel Junior
49'
⚽Paulinho Boia
· ast. Leo Santos
71'
74'
S. van Hooijdonk
/
G. Doue
75'
J. Encada
/
B. Langa
Liziero
/ F. Soares
77'
Jose Gomes
/ L. Vallier
77'
Alan Núñez
78'
81'
Jefferson Encada
85'
L. Antonetti
/
Rodrigo Pinho
Daniel Júnior
86'
Gabriel Veron
/ C. Goncalves
89'
Paulinho Bóia
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
39.52%
Nacional ←
28.21%
X
32.27%
Estrela
we assigned to the actual result (Nacional)
39.52%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.06
0.99
-0.07
1.24
0.50
-0.74
Nacional dominated by xG (0.99 vs 0.50).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
5
José Gomes
77'
D
José Gomes
77'
D
38
Zé Vitor
D
Zé Vitor
D
34
Léo Santos
1 👟
D
Léo Santos
1 👟
D
16
Alan Núñez
D
Alan Núñez
D
28
Liziero
77'
M
15
Chiheb Labidi
M
Chiheb Labidi
M
8
M. Baeza
49'
M
11
Paulinho Bóia
1 ⚽
F
Paulinho Bóia
1 ⚽
F
9
C. Ramírez
1 ⚽
F
C. Ramírez
1 ⚽
F
27
Gabriel Veron
89'
F
Gabriel Veron
89'
F
Bench
10
Daniel Júnior
41'
M
Daniel Júnior
41'
M
22
Filipe Soares
13'
M
Filipe Soares
13'
M
26
Joel Silva
M
Joel Silva
M
24
Lenny Vallier
13'
D
7
Witi
F
Witi
F
40
G
24
Bruno Langa
75'
D
14
Bernardo Schappo
D
Bernardo Schappo
D
30
Luan Patrick
D
Luan Patrick
D
21
Max Scholze
D
Max Scholze
D
63
Alex Sola
45'
M
Alex Sola
45'
M
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
M
Kevin Höög Jansson
M
39
Eddy Doué
74'
M
Eddy Doué
74'
M
10
Ianis Stoica
45'
F
Ianis Stoica
45'
F
9
Rodrigo Pinho
85'
F
Rodrigo Pinho
85'
F
99
A. Marcus
F
A. Marcus
F
Bench
17
Jefferson Encada
15'
D
Jefferson Encada
15'
D
18
Jorge Meireles
F
Jorge Meireles
F
11
Jovane Cabral
45'
F
Jovane Cabral
45'
F
83
Otavio
D
Otavio
D
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
16'
F
Sydney van Hooijdonk
16'
F
Best on the pitch
Paulinho Bóia
F · Nacional
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 28 pass
C. Ramírez
F · Nacional
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 15 pass
José Gomes
D · Nacional
7.50
· 13 pass
Léo Santos
D · Nacional
7.30
1 👟
· 32 pass
Zé Vitor
D · Nacional
7.20
1 shots
· 26 pass
Alan Núñez
D · Nacional
7.20
· 25 pass
Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| José Gomes | D | 77 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Léo Santos | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 32 | 27% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Alan Núñez | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| Liziero | M | 77 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 30% | 4 | — | — |
| Chiheb Labidi | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 43 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Baeza | M | 49 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Paulinho Bóia | F | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | 3 | 1 | — |
| C. Ramírez | F | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Veron | F | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Júnior | M | 41 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Filipe Soares | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Lenny Vallier | D | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Bruno Langa | D | 75 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Luan Patrick | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Max Scholze | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 5 | — | — |
| Alex Sola | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Eddy Doué | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Ianis Stoica | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinho | F | 85 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Marcus | F | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 13 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | F | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nacional vs Estrela?
The final score was Nacional 2–0 Estrela.
What did the model predict before Nacional vs Estrela?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Nacional win, 28% to a draw, and 32% to an Estrela win.