Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 4
August 30, 2026 16:30
Wesley Gasolina
(ast. W. Kokolo)
3'
Pablo Ruan
(ast. Liziero)
66'
(pen.)
45'+1
I. Stoica
62'
(ast. G. Doue)
A. Marcus
83'
(ast. G. Doue)
L. Antonetti
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nacional a 35% win probability (draw 31%, Estrela 32%). The final result was Nacional 2–3 Estrela. In 3 previous meetings, Nacional have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Estrela.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
12
5
Shots on target
4
0.83
Actual xG
2.10
1
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
4
Corners
3
15
Tackles
19
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Wesley Gasolina
· ast. W. Kokolo
3'
F. Soares
/ M. Djalo
40'
45'+1
(pen.)
I. Stoica⚽
Ze Vitor
45'
W. Kokolo
48'
62'
ast. G. Doue ·
A. Marcus⚽
⚽Pablo Ruan
· ast. Liziero
66'
67'
Joan Jordan
/
Robinho
Daniel Junior
/ S. Gavriel
69'
Pablo Ruan
/ A. Obando
69'
72'
B. Souza
/
I. Stoica
W. Kokolo
/ M. Jensen
78'
Wesley Gasolina
/ D. I. de la Cruz
79'
83'
ast. G. Doue ·
L. Antonetti⚽
86'
L. Antonetti
89'
Bernardo Schappo
/
G. Doue
Pre-match prediction
35.77%
Nacional
31.65%
X
32.58%
Estrela ←
we assigned to the actual result (Estrela)
32.58%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.63
0.83
-0.8
1.27
2.10
+0.83
Estrela dominated by xG (2.10 vs 0.83).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Renato Bellucci
G
Renato Bellucci
G
38
Zé Vitor
D
Zé Vitor
D
6
Matheus Dias
D
Matheus Dias
D
34
Léo Santos
D
Léo Santos
D
21
W. Kokolo
1 👟
78'
M
W. Kokolo
1 👟
78'
M
22
Filipe Soares
40'
M
Filipe Soares
40'
M
28
Liziero
1 👟
M
Liziero
1 👟
M
52
Wesley Gasolina
1 ⚽
79'
M
Wesley Gasolina
1 ⚽
79'
M
10
Daniel Júnior
69'
F
Daniel Júnior
69'
F
8
Miguel Baeza
F
Miguel Baeza
F
99
Pablo Ruan
1 ⚽
69'
F
Pablo Ruan
1 ⚽
69'
F
Bench
9
A. Obando
26'
F
A. Obando
26'
F
2
Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
16'
D
Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
16'
D
31
D. Dongmo
M
D. Dongmo
M
88
Deivison
M
Deivison
M
17
F. Nava
M
F. Nava
M
33
Francisco Gonçalves
D
Francisco Gonçalves
D
13
João Gonçalves
G
João Gonçalves
G
50
Kevyn
G
Kevyn
G
20
Matchoi Djaló
55'
M
Matchoi Djaló
55'
M
23
Mateus Jose Iseppe
M
Mateus Jose Iseppe
M
7
M. Jensen
17'
M
M. Jensen
17'
M
11
S. Gavriel
26'
M
S. Gavriel
26'
M
24
Léo Linck
G
Léo Linck
G
55
Rafa Soares
D
Rafa Soares
D
5
S. Leković
D
S. Leković
D
30
Luan Patrick
D
Luan Patrick
D
21
M. Scholze
D
M. Scholze
D
8
Robinho
67'
M
Robinho
67'
M
39
Eddy Doue
2 👟
89'
M
Eddy Doue
2 👟
89'
M
14
L. Zvonarek
M
L. Zvonarek
M
10
I. Stoica
1 ⚽
72'
F
I. Stoica
1 ⚽
72'
F
37
L. Antonetti
1 ⚽
F
L. Antonetti
1 ⚽
F
99
A. Marcus
1 ⚽
F
A. Marcus
1 ⚽
F
Bench
79
A. Chernev
D
A. Chernev
D
80
Alisson
F
Alisson
F
4
Bernardo Schappo
6'
D
Bernardo Schappo
6'
D
93
B. Souza
23'
M
B. Souza
23'
M
22
David Grilo
G
David Grilo
G
51
Diogo Pinto
G
Diogo Pinto
G
71
E. Pedro Vanga
M
E. Pedro Vanga
M
17
Jefferson Encada
D
Jefferson Encada
D
19
Joan Jordán
28'
M
Joan Jordán
28'
M
3
L. Mincarelli Davin
D
L. Mincarelli Davin
D
78
Santiago Serra
M
Santiago Serra
M
9
S. van Hooijdonk
F
S. van Hooijdonk
F
Best on the pitch
A. Marcus
F · Estrela
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Wesley Gasolina
M · Nacional
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 21 pass
Pablo Ruan
F · Nacional
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 10 pass
I. Stoica
F · Estrela
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
Eddy Doue
M · Estrela
7.30
2 👟
· 43 pass
Liziero
M · Nacional
7.30
1 👟
· 56 pass
Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Bellucci | G | 95 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 38 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | D | 95 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 65 | 49% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matheus Dias | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 70 | 64% | 1 | — | — |
| Léo Santos | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | 3 | — | — |
| W. Kokolo | M | 78 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Filipe Soares | M | 40 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Liziero | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 56 | 46% | 2 | — | — |
| Wesley Gasolina | M | 79 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Júnior | F | 69 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Miguel Baeza | F | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ruan | F | 69 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| A. Obando | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz | D | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Matchoi Djaló | M | 55 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| M. Jensen | M | 17 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| S. Gavriel | M | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Linck | G | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Rafa Soares | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 32% | — | — | — |
| S. Leković | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Luan Patrick | D | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Scholze | D | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 6 | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 67 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Eddy Doue | M | 89 | 7.30 | — | 2 | — | 43 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Zvonarek | M | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Stoica | F | 72 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Antonetti | F | 95 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 10 | 7% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Marcus | F | 95 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Souza | M | 23 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Joan Jordán | M | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 18% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nacional vs Estrela?
The final score was Nacional 2–3 Estrela.
What did the model predict before Nacional vs Estrela?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Nacional win, 31% to a draw, and 32% to an Estrela win.