Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 34
May 16, 2026 19:00
J. Ramirez
(ast. Witi)
69'
J. Ramirez
86'
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nacional a 39% win probability (draw 30%, Vitória SC 30%). The final result was Nacional 2–0 Vitória SC. In 2 previous meetings, Nacional have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Vitória SC.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
4
0.93
Actual xG
1.38
5
Saves
1
35%
Possession
65%
2
Corners
6
9
Tackles
11
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
14'
R. Rocha
Jose Gomes
25'
Witi
32'
F. Soares
32'
32'
F. Dias
Matheus Dias
54'
62'
N. Saviolo
/
O. Camara
⚽J. Ramirez
· ast. Witi
69'
Witi
/ Pablo Ruan
70'
78'
(missed pen.)
Samu⚽
80'
H. Nunes
/
R. Rocha
80'
Zeega
/
Samu
80'
M. Nogueira
/
T. Arcanjo
84'
Zeega
⚽J. Ramirez
(pen.)
86'
C. Labidi
/ A. Sousa
90'+1
F. Soares
/ C. Goncalves
90'+1
Paulinho Boia
/ J. Aurelio
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
39.2%
Nacional ←
30.22%
X
30.58%
Vitória
we assigned to the actual result (Nacional)
39.2%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.99
0.93
-0.06
0.87
1.38
+0.51
Vitória SC dominated by xG (1.38 vs 0.93).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Kaique
G
Kaique
G
5
José Gomes
D
José Gomes
D
38
Zé Vitor
D
Zé Vitor
D
34
Léo Santos
D
Léo Santos
D
16
A. Núñez
D
A. Núñez
D
15
C. Labidi
M
C. Labidi
M
6
Matheus Dias
M
Matheus Dias
M
22
Filipe Soares
M
Filipe Soares
M
11
Paulinho Bóia
F
Paulinho Bóia
F
9
Jesús Ramírez
2 ⚽
F
Jesús Ramírez
2 ⚽
F
7
Witi
1 👟
71'
F
Witi
1 👟
71'
F
Bench
18
André Sousa
5'
M
André Sousa
5'
M
10
Daniel Júnior
M
Daniel Júnior
M
33
Francisco Gonçalves
5'
D
Francisco Gonçalves
5'
D
27
Gabriel Veron
F
2
João Aurélio
3'
D
João Aurélio
3'
D
50
Kevyn
G
Kevyn
G
19
Lucas João
F
Lucas João
F
30
Martim Gustavo Watts
M
Martim Gustavo Watts
M
99
Pablo Ruan
25'
F
Pablo Ruan
25'
F
27
Charles
G
Charles
G
82
F. Dias
D
F. Dias
D
26
R. Abascal
D
R. Abascal
D
28
Thiago Balieiro
D
Thiago Balieiro
D
2
Miguel Maga
D
Miguel Maga
D
80
Rica Rocha
80'
M
Rica Rocha
80'
M
19
O. Camara
62'
M
O. Camara
62'
M
20
Samu
80'
M
Samu
80'
M
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
M
Gonçalo Nogueira
M
18
Telmo Arcanjo
80'
M
Telmo Arcanjo
80'
M
11
Gustavo
F
Gustavo
F
Bench
33
E. Opara
F
E. Opara
F
46
Hugo Nunes
16'
M
25
J. Castillo
G
J. Castillo
G
13
João Mendes
D
João Mendes
D
50
Martim Guedes
16'
M
Martim Guedes
16'
M
88
Miguel Nogueira
16'
M
Miguel Nogueira
16'
M
48
Noah Saviolo
34'
F
Noah Saviolo
34'
F
4
Óscar Rivas
D
Óscar Rivas
D
66
T. Strata
D
T. Strata
D
Best on the pitch
Jesús Ramírez
F · Nacional
8.70
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 17 pass
Kaique
G · Nacional
8.30
· 24 pass
Pablo Ruan
F · Nacional
7.30
· 6 pass
A. Núñez
D · Nacional
7.20
· 16 pass
Rica Rocha
M · Vitória
7.20
1 shots
· 47 pass
Noah Saviolo
F · Vitória
6.90
· 6 pass
Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaique | G | 96 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 12% | — | — | — |
| José Gomes | D | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Zé Vitor | D | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Léo Santos | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Núñez | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Labidi | M | 91 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Dias | M | 96 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | 1 | — |
| Filipe Soares | M | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Paulinho Bóia | F | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Jesús Ramírez | F | 96 | 8.70 | 2 | — | 3 | 17 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Witi | F | 71 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 11 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| André Sousa | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Gonçalves | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Aurélio | D | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ruan | F | 25 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 3 | — | — |
Vitória SC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles | G | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 24% | — | — | — |
| F. Dias | D | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 41 | 31% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Abascal | D | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 71 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Balieiro | D | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 56 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Miguel Maga | D | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Rica Rocha | M | 80 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 2 | 1 | — |
| O. Camara | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Samu | M | 80 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | M | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Telmo Arcanjo | M | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo | F | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | 5 | 13 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Hugo Nunes | M | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Martim Guedes | M | 16 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Nogueira | M | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Noah Saviolo | F | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nacional vs Vitória SC?
The final score was Nacional 2–0 Vitória SC.
What did the model predict before Nacional vs Vitória SC?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Nacional win, 30% to a draw, and 30% to an Vitória SC win.