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Nacional - Guimaraes

Primeira Liga May 16, 2026 19:00
Nacional
#14 · 31 pts
vs
Guimaraes
#8 · 42 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.59%
Win
Nacional
30.58%
Draw
30.83%
Win
Guimaraes
0.99
Expected xG
0.87

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Nacional a 38% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Guimaraes. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nacional and 0.9 for Guimaraes (total 1.9), with a 69% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 15.6% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Nacional have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Guimaraes.

Score Matrix
↕ Nacional Guimaraes →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.6% 13.6% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.4% 13.4% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 7.6% 6.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% —
3 2.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —
Recent form
Nacional Nacional
L Santa Clara 2–0
L AVS 1–2
W Tondela 0–2
W Alverca 1–0
L Benfica 2–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 40%
Guimaraes Guimaraes
L Casa Pia 0–1
L Sporting CP 5–1
W Rio Ave 2–0
W GIL Vicente 0–1
D AVS 1–1
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 19%
Playing profile
Nacional Nacional
Attack
31
Defence
63
Form
43
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Attack
35
Defence
59
Form
44
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Nacional
0
Draw
1
Guimaraes
L 2 Jan 2026 Primeira Liga 1–2
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nacional vs Guimaraes?
The model gives Nacional a 38% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an Guimaraes win.
How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Guimaraes?
Expected goals: Nacional 1.0, Guimaraes 0.9 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 69%.
What is the most likely score in Nacional vs Guimaraes?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.6%.