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J1 League · Regular Season - 11 October 21, 2026 12:00 Toyota Stadium, Toyota
Nagoya Grampus
#11 · 14 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Cerezo Osaka
#12 · 14 pts
Katsuhiro Nakayama (ast. Takuya Uchida) 3'
62' (ast. Lucas Fernandes) Pablo Sabbag
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nagoya Grampus a 35% win probability (draw 36%, Cerezo Osaka 27%). The final result was Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka. In 2 previous meetings, Nagoya Grampus have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Cerezo Osaka.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
4
0.96
Actual xG
0.68
2
Saves
2
58%
Possession
42%
2
Corners
1
9
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽Katsuhiro Nakayama · ast. Takuya Uchida
3'
26'
Dion Cools
Yota Sato
46'
49'
Shinji Kagawa
↕ Tsukasa Morishima / Hidemasa Koda
59'
↕ Katsuhiro Nakayama / Tomoya Koyamatsu
60'
↕ Kensuke Nagai / Yuya Yamagishi
60'
62'
ast. Lucas Fernandes · Pablo Sabbag⚽
66'
Lucas Fernandes
69'
Satoki Uejo / Yota Komi ↕
↕ Takuya Uchida / Masahito Ono
70'
81'
Solomon Sakuragawa / Pablo Sabbag ↕
90'+4
Hayato Okuda
90'
Reiya Sakata / Lucas Fernandes ↕
Pre-match prediction
35.83%
Nagoya
36.98%
X ←
27.19%
Cerezo
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 36.98% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Nagoya
0.71
0.96
+0.25
Cerezo
0.51
0.68
+0.17
xG dominance was balanced (0.96 – 0.68). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 12 27
2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 12 27
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 26
4 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 12 25
5 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 12 23
6 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 12 22
7 Urawa Urawa 12 21
8 Kashima Kashima 12 20
9 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 12 18
10 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 12 16
11 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 12 14
12 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 12 14
13 Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 12 14
14 V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 12 12
15 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 12 11
16 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 12 10
17 Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 12 9
18 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 12 8
19 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 12 7
20 JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 12 7
Lineups
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
1 D. Schmidt D. Schmidt G 6.96
31 T. Takamine T. Takamine D 6.88
3 Y. Sato Y. Sato D 6.36
70 T. Hara T. Hara D 6.58
27 K. Nakayama K. Nakayama 1 ⚽ 60' M 7.55
14 T. Morishima T. Morishima 59' M 6.74
15 S. Inagaki S. Inagaki M 6.44
7 R. Izumi R. Izumi M 6.31
22 Y. Kimura Y. Kimura M 6.35
17 T. Uchida T. Uchida 1 👟 70' M 7.37
18 K. Nagai K. Nagai 60' F 6.64
Bench
35 A. Pisano A. Pisano G 0.00
19 H. Koda H. Koda 31' M 6.10
41 M. Ono M. Ono 20' M 6.81
30 S. Sugiura S. Sugiura F 0.00
55 S. Tokumoto S. Tokumoto D 0.00
33 T. Kikuchi T. Kikuchi M 0.00
58 T. Koyamatsu T. Koyamatsu 30' M 6.18
2 Y. Nogami Y. Nogami D 0.00
11 Y. Yamagishi Y. Yamagishi 30' F 6.55
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-4-2-1
23 Kosuke Nakamura Kosuke Nakamura G 6.10
4 R. Inoue R. Inoue D 6.68
97 T. Takahashi T. Takahashi D 6.55
27 Dion-Johan Cools Dion-Johan Cools D 6.12
15 Javi Hernández Javi Hernández M 6.30
8 S. Kagawa S. Kagawa M 6.60
10 S. Tanaka S. Tanaka M 6.52
16 H. Okuda H. Okuda M 6.03
41 Y. Komi Y. Komi 69' M 6.27
77 Lucas Fernandes Lucas Fernandes 1 👟 89' M 6.92
19 P. Sabbag P. Sabbag 1 ⚽ 81' F 7.46
Bench
31 K. Abe K. Abe G 0.00
45 K. Nagasoe K. Nagasoe F 0.00
6 K. Noborizato K. Noborizato D 0.00
28 K. Okazawa K. Okazawa M 0.00
17 R. Sakata R. Sakata 1' M 0.00
9 S. Sakuragawa S. Sakuragawa 9' F 6.43
7 S. Uejo S. Uejo 21' M 6.17
2 T. Nakamura T. Nakamura D 0.00
14 Y. Yokoyama Y. Yokoyama M 0.00
Best on the pitch
K. Nakayama
K. Nakayama
M · Nagoya
7.55
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
P. Sabbag
P. Sabbag
F · Cerezo
7.46
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
T. Uchida
T. Uchida
M · Nagoya
7.37
1 👟
1 shots · 40 pass
D. Schmidt
D. Schmidt
G · Nagoya
6.96
· 45 pass
Lucas Fernandes
Lucas Fernandes
M · Cerezo
6.92
1 👟
· 32 pass
T. Takamine
T. Takamine
D · Nagoya
6.88
1 shots · 65 pass
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Schmidt G 90 6.96 — — 0 45 41% 0 — —
T. Takamine D 90 6.88 — — 1 65 59% 0 — —
Y. Sato D 90 6.36 — — 0 109 94% 3 1 —
T. Hara D 90 6.58 — — 0 62 52% 0 — —
K. Nakayama M 60 7.55 1 — 1 14 13% 0 — —
T. Morishima M 59 6.74 — — 2 51 44% 1 — —
S. Inagaki M 90 6.44 — — 2 85 69% 2 — —
R. Izumi M 90 6.31 — — 2 50 44% 1 — —
Y. Kimura M 90 6.35 — — 2 11 8% 0 — —
T. Uchida M 70 7.37 — 1 1 40 36% 1 — —
K. Nagai F 60 6.64 — — 1 10 6% 0 — —
H. Koda M 31 6.10 — — 0 10 7% 1 — —
M. Ono M 20 6.81 — — 0 24 22% 0 — —
T. Koyamatsu M 30 6.18 — — 0 18 18% 0 — —
Y. Yamagishi F 30 6.55 — — 1 4 4% 0 — —
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Kosuke Nakamura G 90 6.10 — — 0 28 17% 0 — —
R. Inoue D 90 6.68 — — 0 50 42% 0 — —
T. Takahashi D 90 6.55 — — 0 41 31% 1 — —
Dion-Johan Cools D 90 6.12 — — 0 33 25% 2 1 —
Javi Hernández M 90 6.30 — — 4 31 25% 2 — —
S. Kagawa M 90 6.60 — — 0 59 51% 0 1 —
S. Tanaka M 90 6.52 — — 0 60 51% 1 — —
H. Okuda M 90 6.03 — — 1 32 23% 3 1 —
Y. Komi M 69 6.27 — — 2 13 11% 0 — —
Lucas Fernandes M 89 6.92 — 1 0 32 25% 1 1 —
P. Sabbag F 81 7.46 1 — 1 24 10% 1 — —
R. Sakata M 1 0.00 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
S. Sakuragawa F 9 6.43 — — 0 8 5% 0 — —
S. Uejo M 21 6.17 — — 1 12 11% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
The final score was Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka.
What did the model predict before Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Nagoya Grampus win, 36% to a draw, and 27% to an Cerezo Osaka win.