Nairobi United - Mara Sugar
Premier League
November 14, 2026 12:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.47%
Win
Nairobi United
32.39%
Draw
32.15%
Win
Mara Sugar
1.95
1.03
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(14.26%)
1X2 Result
1
35%
X
32%
2
32%
Double Chance
1X
68%
X2
65%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
50%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Nairobi United a 35% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Mara Sugar. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nairobi United and 1.0 for Mara Sugar (total 3.0), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.26% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Nairobi United have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Mara Sugar.
Season Stats
5W
8D
2L
6W
5D
4L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
0.9
1.1
Conceded
0.9
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
47%
47%
O 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
47%
33%
Clean Sht
47%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
2W
7D
1L
· at home
2W
4D
4L
· away
1.4
gls/g
0.8
1.1
Conceded
1.1
20%
Win %
20%
90%
Win or Draw
60%
80%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
40%
30%
O 3.5
20%
70%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean Sht
40%
10%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Nairobi United
Mara Sugar →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — |
| 1 | 9.9% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.7% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Nairobi United
Attack
26
Defence
56
Form
35
Mara Sugar
Attack
17
Defence
61
Form
36
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
GOR Mahia
|
6 | 13 |
| 2 |
KCB
|
6 | 13 |
| 3 |
AFC Leopards
|
6 | 10 |
| 4 |
Kenya Police
|
6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Shabana
|
6 | 9 |
| 6 |
Mara Sugar
|
6 | 9 |
| 7 |
3K
|
6 | 9 |
| 8 |
Murang'a SEAL
|
6 | 8 |
| 9 |
Bandari
|
6 | 7 |
| 9 |
Police
|
1 | 1 |
| 10 |
Posta Rangers FC
|
6 | 7 |
| 11 |
Tusker
|
4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Migori Youth
|
5 | 6 |
| 13 |
APS Bomet
|
6 | 6 |
| 14 |
Ulinzi Stars
|
6 | 6 |
| 15 |
Nairobi United
|
6 | 5 |
| 16 |
Mathare United
|
6 | 5 |
| 17 |
Homeboyz
|
5 | 5 |
| 18 |
Mombasa Elite
|
6 | 1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
The model gives Nairobi United a 35% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 32% for an Mara Sugar win.
How many goals are expected in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Expected goals: Nairobi United 1.9, Mara Sugar 1.0 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.26%.