Nairobi United - Tusker
Premier League
November 20, 2026 14:15
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.08%
Win
Nairobi United
32.13%
Draw
31.79%
Win
Tusker
2.29
0.57
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(14.24%)
1X2 Result
1
36%
X
32%
2
32%
Double Chance
1X
68%
X2
64%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
51%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Nairobi United a 36% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Tusker. Expected goals are 2.3 for Nairobi United and 0.6 for Tusker (total 2.9), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.24% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Nairobi United have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Tusker.
Season Stats
5W
8D
2L
5W
2D
8L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
0.8
1.1
Conceded
0.8
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
47%
47%
O 2.5
13%
60%
BTTS
20%
33%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
15%
O 3.5
45%
BTTS
2W
7D
1L
· at home
2W
0D
8L
· away
1.4
gls/g
0.5
1.1
Conceded
1.1
20%
Win %
20%
90%
Win or Draw
20%
80%
O 1.5
40%
50%
O 2.5
20%
30%
O 3.5
0%
70%
BTTS
20%
30%
Clean Sht
10%
10%
Failed to Score
70%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Nairobi United
Tusker →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 1 | 13.1% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 15.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 11.5% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 4 | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 5 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Nairobi United
Attack
26
Defence
56
Form
35
Tusker
Attack
17
Defence
53
Form
32
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
GOR Mahia
|
6 | 13 |
| 2 |
KCB
|
6 | 13 |
| 3 |
AFC Leopards
|
6 | 10 |
| 4 |
Kenya Police
|
6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Shabana
|
6 | 9 |
| 6 |
Mara Sugar
|
6 | 9 |
| 7 |
3K
|
6 | 9 |
| 8 |
Murang'a SEAL
|
6 | 8 |
| 9 |
Bandari
|
6 | 7 |
| 9 |
Police
|
1 | 1 |
| 10 |
Posta Rangers FC
|
6 | 7 |
| 11 |
Tusker
|
4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Migori Youth
|
5 | 6 |
| 13 |
APS Bomet
|
6 | 6 |
| 14 |
Ulinzi Stars
|
6 | 6 |
| 15 |
Nairobi United
|
6 | 5 |
| 16 |
Mathare United
|
6 | 5 |
| 17 |
Homeboyz
|
5 | 5 |
| 18 |
Mombasa Elite
|
6 | 1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nairobi United vs Tusker?
The model gives Nairobi United a 36% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 31% for an Tusker win.
How many goals are expected in Nairobi United vs Tusker?
Expected goals: Nairobi United 2.3, Tusker 0.6 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Nairobi United vs Tusker?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.24%.