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Nantes - Toulouse

Ligue 1 May 17, 2026 21:00
Nantes
#17 · 23 pts
vs
Toulouse
#10 · 44 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 14.4°C 💨 15 km/h
⚡ Pre-match analysis
45.67%
Win
Nantes
27.98%
Draw
26.35%
Win
Toulouse
1.85
Expected xG
1.22
Most likely result 1–1 (10.5%)
2+ goals
77%
3+ goals
59%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Nantes a 45% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Toulouse. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nantes and 1.2 for Toulouse (total 3.1), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.5% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Nantes have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toulouse.

Season Stats

Nantes
2W 3D 10L
Toulouse
5W 3D 7L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
1.2
1.5
Conceded
1.5
3.7
Shots OT
4.5
4.5
Corners
4.3
41%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
67%
47%
O 2.5
53%
40%
BTTS
53%
27%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Ligue 1. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
80%
O 1.5
60%
O 2.5
30%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Nantes
2W 2D 6L · at home
Toulouse
4W 1D 5L · away
1.2
gls/g
1.7
1.5
Conceded
1.6
20%
Win %
40%
40%
Win or Draw
50%
80%
O 1.5
80%
50%
O 2.5
70%
20%
O 3.5
40%
60%
BTTS
60%
20%
Clean Sht
20%
20%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Nantes Toulouse →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7% 5.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 8.6% 10.5% 6.4% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 8.0% 9.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.9% 6.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% —

Recent form

Nantes Nantes
L Lens 1–0
W Marseille 3–0
L Rennes 2–1
L Paris Saint Germain 3–0
D Stade Brestois 29 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Toulouse Toulouse
W Lyon 2–1
W Strasbourg 1–2
D Monaco 2–2
L Lens 3–2
L Lille 0–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 16%

Playing profile

Nantes Nantes
Attack
39
Defence
59
Form
38
Toulouse Toulouse
Attack
37
Defence
51
Form
48
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Nantes
1
Draw
0
Toulouse
27 Sep 2025 Ligue 1 2–2

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Rodez Rodez 1 3
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 34 76
2 Lens Lens 34 70
2 RED Star FC 93 RED Star FC 93 1 0
3 Lille Lille 34 61
4 Lyon Lyon 34 60
5 Marseille Marseille 34 59
6 Rennes Rennes 34 59
7 Monaco Monaco 34 54
8 Strasbourg Strasbourg 34 53
9 Lorient Lorient 34 45
10 Toulouse Toulouse 33 44
11 Paris FC Paris FC 34 44
12 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 34 39
13 Angers Angers 34 36
14 Le Havre Le Havre 34 35
15 Auxerre Auxerre 34 34
16 Nice Nice 34 32
17 Nantes Nantes 33 23
18 Metz Metz 34 17
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nantes vs Toulouse?
The model gives Nantes a 45% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 26% for an Toulouse win.
How many goals are expected in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Expected goals: Nantes 1.8, Toulouse 1.2 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.5%.