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← Ligue 1

Nantes - Toulouse

Ligue 1 May 17, 2026 21:00
Nantes
vs
Toulouse
#13 · 5 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 14.4°C 💨 15 km/h
⚡ Pre-match analysis
45.67%
Win
Nantes
27.98%
Draw
26.35%
Win
Toulouse
1.85
Expected xG
1.22

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.5%)
1X2 Result
1 46%
X 28%
2 26%
Double Chance
1X 74%
X2 54%
12 72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 59%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Nantes a 45% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Toulouse. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nantes and 1.2 for Toulouse (total 3.1), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.5% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Nantes have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toulouse.

Season Stats

Nantes
2W 3D 10L
Toulouse
5W 3D 7L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
1.2
1.5
Conceded
1.5
3.7
Shots OT
4.5
4.5
Corners
4.3
41%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
67%
47%
O 2.5
53%
40%
BTTS
53%
27%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Ligue 1. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
30%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Nantes
2W 2D 6L · at home
Toulouse
4W 1D 5L · away
1.2
gls/g
1.7
1.5
Conceded
1.6
20%
Win %
40%
40%
Win or Draw
50%
80%
O 1.5
80%
50%
O 2.5
70%
20%
O 3.5
40%
60%
BTTS
60%
20%
Clean Sht
20%
20%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Nantes Toulouse →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7% 5.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 8.6% 10.5% 6.4% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 8.0% 9.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.9% 6.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% —

Recent form

Nantes Nantes
L Lens 1–0
W Marseille 3–0
L Rennes 2–1
L Paris Saint Germain 3–0
D Stade Brestois 29 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Toulouse Toulouse
W Le Havre 3–2
D Lorient 2–2
L Lille 0–1
D Stade Brestois 29 2–2
L Lyon 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 16%

Playing profile

Nantes Nantes
Attack
39
Defence
59
Form
38
Toulouse Toulouse
Attack
30
Defence
42
Form
29
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Nantes
1
Draw
0
Toulouse
27 Sep 2025 Ligue 1 2–2

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Monaco Monaco 5 13
2 Lyon Lyon 5 11
3 Paris FC Paris FC 5 11
4 Lille Lille 5 10
5 Rennes Rennes 5 10
6 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 5 8
7 Angers Angers 5 7
8 Strasbourg Strasbourg 5 7
9 Le Mans Le Mans 5 6
10 Auxerre Auxerre 5 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 5 5
12 Lorient Lorient 5 5
13 Toulouse Toulouse 5 5
14 Nice Nice 5 5
15 Lens Lens 5 4
16 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 5 4
17 Marseille Marseille 5 3
18 Le Havre Le Havre 5 2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nantes vs Toulouse?
The model gives Nantes a 45% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 26% for an Toulouse win.
How many goals are expected in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Expected goals: Nantes 1.8, Toulouse 1.2 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.5%.