Serie A
· Regular Season - 31
April 06, 2026 20:45
M. Politano
79'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 47% win probability (draw 23%, AC Milan 28%). The final result was Napoli 1–0 AC Milan. In 2 previous meetings, Napoli have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for AC Milan.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
1
0.75
Actual xG
0.47
1
Saves
2
54%
Possession
46%
4
Corners
1
8
Tackles
10
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
A. Buongiorno
12'
62'
Z. Athekame
/
A. Saelemaekers
63'
S. Gimenez
/
N. Fullkrug
Giovane
/ Alisson Santos
70'
74'
C. Pulisic
/
C. Nkunku
L. Spinazzola
/ M. Politano
74'
⚽M. Politano
79'
M. Politano
81'
82'
R. Loftus-Cheek
/
F. Tomori
83'
R. Leao
/
Y. Fofana
K. De Bruyne
/ E. Elmas
85'
Juan Jesus
/ S. Beukema
85'
Pre-match prediction
47.26%
Napoli ←
23.78%
X
28.95%
AC
we assigned to the actual result (Napoli)
47.26%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.64
0.75
-0.9
1.44
0.47
-0.97
xG dominance was balanced (0.75 – 0.47).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
32
G
17
Mathías Olivera
D
Mathías Olivera
D
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
5
Juan Jesus
85'
D
Juan Jesus
85'
D
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
74'
M
Leonardo Spinazzola
74'
M
68
Stanislav Lobotka
M
Stanislav Lobotka
M
99
A. Zambo Anguissa
M
A. Zambo Anguissa
M
3
M
8
S. McTominay
F
S. McTominay
F
11
Kevin De Bruyne
85'
F
Kevin De Bruyne
85'
F
23
Giovane
70'
F
Giovane
70'
F
Bench
27
Alisson Santos
24'
F
Alisson Santos
24'
F
6
Billy Gilmour
M
Billy Gilmour
M
20
Eljif Elmas
9'
M
Eljif Elmas
9'
M
21
Matteo Politano
1 ⚽
20'
F
Matteo Politano
1 ⚽
20'
F
16
G
31
Strahinja Pavlović
D
Strahinja Pavlović
D
5
Koni De Winter
D
Koni De Winter
D
23
Fikayo Tomori
82'
D
Fikayo Tomori
82'
D
33
Davide Bartesaghi
M
Davide Bartesaghi
M
12
Adrien Rabiot
M
Adrien Rabiot
M
14
Luka Modrić
M
Luka Modrić
M
19
Y. Fofana
82'
M
Y. Fofana
82'
M
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
62'
M
Alexis Saelemaekers
62'
M
18
C. Nkunku
74'
F
C. Nkunku
74'
F
9
N. Füllkrug
63'
F
N. Füllkrug
63'
F
Bench
30
Ardon Jashari
M
Ardon Jashari
M
11
Christian Pulišić
20'
M
Christian Pulišić
20'
M
2
Pervis Estupiñán
D
Pervis Estupiñán
D
10
Rafael Leão
12'
F
Rafael Leão
12'
F
8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
12'
M
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
12'
M
4
S. Ricci
M
S. Ricci
M
24
Z. Athekame
32'
D
Z. Athekame
32'
D
Best on the pitch
Matteo Politano
F · Napoli
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
Leonardo Spinazzola
M · Napoli
7.20
1 shots
· 36 pass
Stanislav Lobotka
M · Napoli
7.20
1 shots
· 58 pass
A. Zambo Anguissa
M · Napoli
7.20
2 shots
· 46 pass
G · AC
7.20
· 42 pass
Juan Jesus
D · Napoli
7.00
· 67 pass
Napoli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| Mathías Olivera | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 71% | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 55% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 67 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 57% | — | — | — |
| A. Zambo Anguissa | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | — | — | — | |
| S. McTominay | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Kevin De Bruyne | F | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Giovane | F | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Eljif Elmas | M | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Matteo Politano | F | 20 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
AC Milan — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 34% | — | — | — | |
| Strahinja Pavlović | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Koni De Winter | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 69 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| Fikayo Tomori | D | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | M | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Luka Modrić | M | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 52 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Y. Fofana | M | 82 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Nkunku | F | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| N. Füllkrug | F | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Christian Pulišić | M | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Leão | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Z. Athekame | D | 32 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Napoli vs AC Milan?
The final score was Napoli 1–0 AC Milan.
What did the model predict before Napoli vs AC Milan?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Napoli win, 23% to a draw, and 28% to an AC Milan win.