Serie A
· Regular Season - 31
April 06, 2026 20:45
M. Politano
79'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 47% win probability (draw 23%, AC Milan 28%). The final result was Napoli 1–0 AC Milan. In 2 previous meetings, Napoli have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for AC Milan.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
1
0.75
Actual xG
0.47
1
Saves
2
54%
Possession
46%
4
Corners
1
8
Tackles
10
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
A. Buongiorno
12'
62'
Z. Athekame
/
A. Saelemaekers
63'
S. Gimenez
/
N. Fullkrug
Giovane
/ Alisson Santos
70'
74'
C. Pulisic
/
C. Nkunku
L. Spinazzola
/ M. Politano
74'
⚽M. Politano
79'
M. Politano
81'
82'
R. Loftus-Cheek
/
F. Tomori
83'
R. Leao
/
Y. Fofana
K. De Bruyne
/ E. Elmas
85'
Juan Jesus
/ S. Beukema
85'
Pre-match prediction
47.26%
Napoli ←
23.78%
X
28.95%
AC
we assigned to the actual result (Napoli)
47.26%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.64
0.75
-0.9
1.44
0.47
-0.97
xG dominance was balanced (0.75 – 0.47).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
32
G
17
M. Olivera
D
M. Olivera
D
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
5
Juan Jesus
85'
D
Juan Jesus
85'
D
37
L. Spinazzola
74'
M
L. Spinazzola
74'
M
68
S. Lobotka
M
S. Lobotka
M
99
A. Zambo Anguissa
M
A. Zambo Anguissa
M
3
M
8
S. McTominay
F
S. McTominay
F
11
K. De Bruyne
85'
F
K. De Bruyne
85'
F
23
Giovane
70'
F
Giovane
70'
F
Bench
27
Alisson Santos
24'
F
Alisson Santos
24'
F
6
B. Gilmour
M
B. Gilmour
M
20
E. Elmas
9'
M
E. Elmas
9'
M
21
M. Politano
1 ⚽
20'
F
M. Politano
1 ⚽
20'
F
16
G
31
S. Pavlović
D
S. Pavlović
D
5
K. De Winter
D
K. De Winter
D
23
F. Tomori
82'
D
F. Tomori
82'
D
33
D. Bartesaghi
M
D. Bartesaghi
M
12
A. Rabiot
M
A. Rabiot
M
14
L. Modrić
M
L. Modrić
M
19
Y. Fofana
82'
M
Y. Fofana
82'
M
56
A. Saelemaekers
62'
M
A. Saelemaekers
62'
M
18
C. Nkunku
74'
F
C. Nkunku
74'
F
9
N. Füllkrug
63'
F
N. Füllkrug
63'
F
Bench
30
A. Jashari
M
A. Jashari
M
11
C. Pulišić
20'
M
C. Pulišić
20'
M
2
P. Estupiñán
D
P. Estupiñán
D
10
Rafael Leão
12'
F
Rafael Leão
12'
F
8
R. Loftus-Cheek
12'
M
R. Loftus-Cheek
12'
M
4
S. Ricci
M
S. Ricci
M
24
Z. Athekame
32'
D
Z. Athekame
32'
D
Best on the pitch
M. Politano
F · Napoli
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
L. Spinazzola
M · Napoli
7.20
1 shots
· 36 pass
S. Lobotka
M · Napoli
7.20
1 shots
· 58 pass
A. Zambo Anguissa
M · Napoli
7.20
2 shots
· 46 pass
G · AC
7.20
· 42 pass
Juan Jesus
D · Napoli
7.00
· 67 pass
Napoli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| M. Olivera | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 71% | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 55% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 67 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Spinazzola | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Lobotka | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 57% | — | — | — |
| A. Zambo Anguissa | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | — | — | — | |
| S. McTominay | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| K. De Bruyne | F | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Giovane | F | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| E. Elmas | M | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Politano | F | 20 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
AC Milan — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 34% | — | — | — | |
| S. Pavlović | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| K. De Winter | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 69 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Tomori | D | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Bartesaghi | M | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
| A. Rabiot | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 52 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Y. Fofana | M | 82 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Saelemaekers | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Nkunku | F | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| N. Füllkrug | F | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| C. Pulišić | M | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Leão | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| R. Loftus-Cheek | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Z. Athekame | D | 32 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Napoli vs AC Milan?
The final score was Napoli 1–0 AC Milan.
What did the model predict before Napoli vs AC Milan?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Napoli win, 23% to a draw, and 28% to an AC Milan win.