Serie A
· Regular Season - 31
April 06, 2026 22:45
M. Politano
79'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 47% win probability (draw 23%, AC Milan 28%). The final result was Napoli 1–0 AC Milan. In 2 previous meetings, Napoli have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for AC Milan.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
1
0.75
Actual xG
0.47
1
Saves
2
54%
Possession
46%
4
Corners
1
8
Tackles
10
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
A. Buongiorno
12'
62'
Z. Athekame
/
A. Saelemaekers
63'
S. Gimenez
/
N. Fullkrug
Giovane
/ Alisson Santos
70'
74'
C. Pulisic
/
C. Nkunku
L. Spinazzola
/ M. Politano
74'
⚽M. Politano
79'
M. Politano
81'
82'
R. Loftus-Cheek
/
F. Tomori
83'
R. Leao
/
Y. Fofana
K. De Bruyne
/ E. Elmas
85'
Juan Jesus
/ S. Beukema
85'
Pre-match prediction
47.26%
Napoli ←
23.78%
X
28.95%
AC
we assigned to the actual result (Napoli)
47.26%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.64
0.75
-0.9
1.44
0.47
-0.97
xG dominance was balanced (0.75 – 0.47).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
32
G
17
M. Olivera
D
M. Olivera
D
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
5
Juan Jesus
85'
D
Juan Jesus
85'
D
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
74'
M
Leonardo Spinazzola
74'
M
68
Stanislav Lobotka
M
Stanislav Lobotka
M
99
Frank Anguissa
M
Frank Anguissa
M
3
M
8
Scott McTominay
F
Scott McTominay
F
11
K. De Bruyne
85'
F
K. De Bruyne
85'
F
23
Giovane
70'
F
Giovane
70'
F
Bench
27
Alisson Santos
24'
F
Alisson Santos
24'
F
6
Billy Gilmour
M
Billy Gilmour
M
20
Eljif Elmas
9'
M
Eljif Elmas
9'
M
21
Matteo Politano
1 ⚽
20'
F
Matteo Politano
1 ⚽
20'
F
16
G
31
S. Pavlović
D
S. Pavlović
D
5
Koni De Winter
D
Koni De Winter
D
23
F. Tomori
82'
D
33
Davide Bartesaghi
M
Davide Bartesaghi
M
12
A. Rabiot
M
A. Rabiot
M
14
L. Modric
M
19
Youssouf Fofana
82'
M
Youssouf Fofana
82'
M
56
A. Saelemaekers
62'
M
A. Saelemaekers
62'
M
18
Christopher Nkunku
74'
F
Christopher Nkunku
74'
F
9
N. Füllkrug
63'
F
N. Füllkrug
63'
F
Bench
30
Ardon Jashari
M
Ardon Jashari
M
11
C. Pulišić
20'
M
C. Pulišić
20'
M
2
Pervis Estupiñán
D
Pervis Estupiñán
D
10
Rafael Leão
12'
F
Rafael Leão
12'
F
8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
12'
M
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
12'
M
4
Samuele Ricci
M
Samuele Ricci
M
24
Zachary Athekame
32'
D
Zachary Athekame
32'
D
Best on the pitch
Matteo Politano
F · Napoli
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
Leonardo Spinazzola
M · Napoli
7.20
1 shots
· 36 pass
Stanislav Lobotka
M · Napoli
7.20
1 shots
· 58 pass
Frank Anguissa
M · Napoli
7.20
2 shots
· 46 pass
G · AC
7.20
· 42 pass
Juan Jesus
D · Napoli
7.00
· 67 pass
Napoli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| M. Olivera | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 71% | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 55% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 67 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 57% | — | — | — |
| Frank Anguissa | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | — | — | — | |
| Scott McTominay | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| K. De Bruyne | F | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Giovane | F | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Eljif Elmas | M | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Matteo Politano | F | 20 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
AC Milan — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 34% | — | — | — | |
| S. Pavlović | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Koni De Winter | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 69 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Tomori | D | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | M | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
| A. Rabiot | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Modric | M | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 52 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Youssouf Fofana | M | 82 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Saelemaekers | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Christopher Nkunku | F | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| N. Füllkrug | F | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| C. Pulišić | M | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Leão | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Zachary Athekame | D | 32 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Napoli vs AC Milan?
The final score was Napoli 1–0 AC Milan.
What did the model predict before Napoli vs AC Milan?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Napoli win, 23% to a draw, and 28% to an AC Milan win.