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Serie A · Regular Season - 36 May 11, 2026 20:45
Napoli
#12 · 3 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Bologna
#16 · 1 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Napoli, result Bologna wins
G. Di Lorenzo 45'+2
Alisson Santos (ast. R. Hojlund) 48'
10' (ast. J. Miranda) F. Bernardeschi
(pen.) 34' R. Orsolini
90'+1 J. Rowe
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 54% win probability (draw 28%, Bologna 16%). The final result was Napoli 2–3 Bologna. In 2 previous meetings, Napoli have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bologna.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
4
0.73
Actual xG
1.32
1
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
1
7
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
10'
ast. J. Miranda · F. Bernardeschi⚽
34'
(pen.) R. Orsolini⚽
38'
Joao Mario
⚽G. Di Lorenzo
45'+2
47'
F. Bernardeschi
⚽Alisson Santos · ast. R. Hojlund
48'
58'
E. Fauske Helland
64'
N. Zortea / Joao Mario ↕
69'
J. Lucumi
73'
J. Rowe / F. Bernardeschi ↕
↕ S. Lobotka / B. Gilmour
76'
↕ Giovane / E. Elmas
76'
81'
N. Moro / T. Pobega ↕
81'
S. Sohm / L. Ferguson ↕
82'
T. Heggem / E. Fauske Helland ↕
M. Politano
84'
↕ M. Politano / L. Spinazzola
85'
↕ M. Gutierrez / P. Mazzocchi
87'
90'+1
J. Rowe⚽
Pre-match prediction
54.17%
Napoli
28.99%
X
16.85%
Bologna ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bologna) 16.85% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Napoli
1.34
0.73
-0.61
Bologna
0.63
1.32
+0.69
Bologna dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.73). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lazio Lazio 4 10
2 AS Roma AS Roma 3 9
3 Inter Inter 3 9
4 AC Milan AC Milan 4 8
5 Como Como 3 7
6 Juventus Juventus 3 7
7 Frosinone Frosinone 4 7
8 Atalanta Atalanta 3 6
9 Cagliari Cagliari 3 6
10 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3 4
11 Udinese Udinese 3 4
12 Napoli Napoli 3 3
13 Torino Torino 3 3
14 Lecce Lecce 3 3
15 Fiorentina Fiorentina 4 3
16 Bologna Bologna 3 1
17 Parma Parma 3 1
18 Monza Monza 3 1
19 Genoa Genoa 4 1
20 Venezia Venezia 4 0
Lineups
Napoli Napoli 3-4-2-1
32 V. Milinković-Savić V. Milinković-Savić G 5.90
4 Alessandro Buongiorno Alessandro Buongiorno D 5.60
13 Amir Rrahmani Amir Rrahmani D 6.00
22 G. Di Lorenzo G. Di Lorenzo 1 ⚽ D 6.90
3 Miguel Gutiérrez Miguel Gutiérrez 87' M 6.70
8 S. McTominay S. McTominay M 6.90
68 S. Lobotka S. Lobotka 76' M 6.70
21 M. Politano M. Politano 84' M 7.00
27 Alisson Santos Alisson Santos 1 ⚽ F 8.20
23 Giovane Giovane 76' F 6.70
19 R. Højlund R. Højlund 1 👟 F 6.60
Bench
1 A. Meret A. Meret G
26 A. Vergara A. Vergara M
99 A. Zambo Anguissa A. Zambo Anguissa M
6 B. Gilmour B. Gilmour 18' M 6.50
20 E. Elmas E. Elmas 18' M 6.30
5 Juan Jesus Juan Jesus D
37 L. Spinazzola L. Spinazzola 10' D 6.20
17 M. Olivera M. Olivera D
14 N. Contini N. Contini G
30 Pasquale Mazzocchi Pasquale Mazzocchi 7' D
31 S. Beukema S. Beukema D
Bologna Bologna 4-3-3
25 M. Pessina M. Pessina G 5.90
33 Juan Miranda Juan Miranda 1 👟 D 7.30
26 J. Lucumí J. Lucumí D 6.90
5 E. Helland E. Helland 82' D 6.00
17 João Mário João Mário 64' D 6.30
19 L. Ferguson L. Ferguson 81' M 6.90
8 R. Freuler R. Freuler M 7.00
4 T. Pobega T. Pobega 81' M 6.60
10 F. Bernardeschi F. Bernardeschi 1 ⚽ 73' F 7.60
9 S. Castro S. Castro F 6.30
7 R. Orsolini R. Orsolini 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
30 B. Domínguez B. Domínguez F
22 C. Lykogiannis C. Lykogiannis D
13 F. Ravaglia F. Ravaglia G
21 J. Odgaard J. Odgaard F
11 J. Rowe J. Rowe 1 ⚽ 21' F 7.20
29 L. De Silvestri L. De Silvestri D
1 Ł. Skorupski Ł. Skorupski G
6 N. Moro N. Moro 13' M 6.70
20 N. Zortea N. Zortea 30' D 6.70
23 Simon Sohm Simon Sohm 13' M 6.30
24 T. Dallinga T. Dallinga F
14 T. Heggem T. Heggem 12' D 6.30
Best on the pitch
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos
F · Napoli
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 31 pass
F. Bernardeschi
F. Bernardeschi
F · Bologna
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 39 pass
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda
D · Bologna
7.30
1 👟
2 shots · 56 pass
R. Orsolini
R. Orsolini
F · Bologna
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 21 pass
J. Rowe
J. Rowe
F · Bologna
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 4 pass
R. Freuler
R. Freuler
M · Bologna
7.00
· 53 pass
Napoli Napoli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
V. Milinković-Savić G 94 5.90 — — — 29 23% — — —
Alessandro Buongiorno D 94 5.60 — — — 65 61% — — —
Amir Rrahmani D 94 6.00 — — 2 60 53% — — —
G. Di Lorenzo D 94 6.90 1 — 2 53 46% — — —
Miguel Gutiérrez M 87 6.70 — — — 43 39% 4 — —
S. McTominay M 94 6.90 — — 3 39 35% — — —
S. Lobotka M 76 6.70 — — — 51 47% 1 — —
M. Politano M 84 7.00 — — — 40 29% — 1 —
Alisson Santos F 94 8.20 1 — 2 31 29% 1 — —
Giovane F 76 6.70 — — 1 20 19% 1 — —
R. Højlund F 94 6.60 — 1 — 17 14% — — —
B. Gilmour M 18 6.50 — — — 14 14% — — —
E. Elmas M 18 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
L. Spinazzola D 10 6.20 — — — 2 1% — — —
Pasquale Mazzocchi D 7 — — — — — — — — —
Bologna Bologna — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Pessina G 94 5.90 — — — 43 22% — — —
Juan Miranda D 94 7.30 — 1 2 56 52% 2 — —
J. Lucumí D 94 6.90 — — — 57 50% 2 1 —
E. Helland D 82 6.00 — — — 42 37% — 1 —
João Mário D 64 6.30 — — — 20 18% 3 1 —
L. Ferguson M 81 6.90 — — 1 39 35% 3 — —
R. Freuler M 94 7.00 — — — 53 50% — — —
T. Pobega M 81 6.60 — — — 40 34% 2 — —
F. Bernardeschi F 73 7.60 1 — 2 39 34% — 1 —
S. Castro F 94 6.30 — — 1 18 14% — — —
R. Orsolini F 94 7.20 1 — 1 21 16% 2 — —
J. Rowe F 21 7.20 1 — 2 4 4% — — —
N. Moro M 13 6.70 — — — 9 8% — — —
N. Zortea D 30 6.70 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
Simon Sohm M 13 6.30 — — — 3 3% — — —
T. Heggem D 12 6.30 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Napoli vs Bologna?
The final score was Napoli 2–3 Bologna.
What did the model predict before Napoli vs Bologna?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Napoli win, 28% to a draw, and 16% to an Bologna win.