Serie A
· Regular Season - 36
May 11, 2026 20:45
✗Model wrong — prediction Napoli, result Bologna wins
G. Di Lorenzo
45'+2
Alisson Santos
(ast. R. Hojlund)
48'
10'
(ast. J. Miranda)
F. Bernardeschi
(pen.)
34'
R. Orsolini
90'+1
J. Rowe
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 54% win probability (draw 28%, Bologna 16%). The final result was Napoli 2–3 Bologna. In 2 previous meetings, Napoli have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bologna.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
4
0.73
Actual xG
1.32
1
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
1
7
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
10'
ast. J. Miranda ·
F. Bernardeschi⚽
34'
(pen.)
R. Orsolini⚽
38'
Joao Mario
⚽G. Di Lorenzo
45'+2
47'
F. Bernardeschi
⚽Alisson Santos
· ast. R. Hojlund
48'
58'
E. Fauske Helland
64'
N. Zortea
/
Joao Mario
69'
J. Lucumi
73'
J. Rowe
/
F. Bernardeschi
S. Lobotka
/ B. Gilmour
76'
Giovane
/ E. Elmas
76'
81'
N. Moro
/
T. Pobega
81'
S. Sohm
/
L. Ferguson
82'
T. Heggem
/
E. Fauske Helland
M. Politano
84'
M. Politano
/ L. Spinazzola
85'
M. Gutierrez
/ P. Mazzocchi
87'
90'+1
J. Rowe⚽
Pre-match prediction
54.17%
Napoli
28.99%
X
16.85%
Bologna ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bologna)
16.85%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.34
0.73
-0.61
0.63
1.32
+0.69
Bologna dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.73).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
32
Vanja Milinković-Savić
G
Vanja Milinković-Savić
G
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
13
Amir Rrahmani
D
Amir Rrahmani
D
22
G. Di Lorenzo
1 ⚽
D
G. Di Lorenzo
1 ⚽
D
3
Miguel Gutiérrez
87'
M
Miguel Gutiérrez
87'
M
8
S. McTominay
M
S. McTominay
M
68
S. Lobotka
76'
M
S. Lobotka
76'
M
21
M. Politano
84'
M
M. Politano
84'
M
27
Alisson Santos
1 ⚽
F
Alisson Santos
1 ⚽
F
23
Giovane
76'
F
Giovane
76'
F
19
R. Højlund
1 👟
F
R. Højlund
1 👟
F
Bench
1
Alex Meret
G
Alex Meret
G
26
A. Vergara
M
A. Vergara
M
6
Billy Gilmour
18'
M
Billy Gilmour
18'
M
20
E. Elmas
18'
M
E. Elmas
18'
M
99
Frank Anguissa
M
Frank Anguissa
M
5
Juan Jesus
D
Juan Jesus
D
37
L. Spinazzola
10'
D
L. Spinazzola
10'
D
17
Mathías Olivera
D
Mathías Olivera
D
14
Nikita Contini
G
Nikita Contini
G
30
P. Mazzocchi
7'
D
P. Mazzocchi
7'
D
31
Sam Beukema
D
Sam Beukema
D
25
Massimo Pessina
G
33
Juan Miranda
1 👟
D
26
Jhon Lucumí
D
Jhon Lucumí
D
5
E. Helland
82'
D
E. Helland
82'
D
17
João Mário
64'
D
19
L. Ferguson
81'
M
L. Ferguson
81'
M
8
Remo Freuler
M
Remo Freuler
M
4
T. Pobega
81'
M
T. Pobega
81'
M
10
F. Bernardeschi
1 ⚽
73'
F
F. Bernardeschi
1 ⚽
73'
F
9
S. Castro
F
S. Castro
F
7
R. Orsolini
1 ⚽
F
R. Orsolini
1 ⚽
F
Bench
30
Benjamín Domínguez
F
22
Charalampos Lykogiannis
D
13
Federico Ravaglia
G
21
J. Odgaard
F
J. Odgaard
F
11
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
21'
F
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
21'
F
29
Lorenzo De Silvestri
D
1
Łukasz Skorupski
G
20
Nadir Zortea
30'
D
6
Nikola Moro
13'
M
Nikola Moro
13'
M
23
Simon Sohm
13'
M
24
Thijs Dallinga
F
14
Torbjørn Heggem
12'
D
Torbjørn Heggem
12'
D
Best on the pitch
Alisson Santos
F · Napoli
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 31 pass
F. Bernardeschi
F · Bologna
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 39 pass
Juan Miranda
D · Bologna
7.30
1 👟
2 shots
· 56 pass
R. Orsolini
F · Bologna
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 21 pass
J. Rowe
F · Bologna
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 4 pass
Remo Freuler
M · Bologna
7.00
· 53 pass
Napoli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanja Milinković-Savić | G | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 94 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 65 | 61% | — | — | — |
| Amir Rrahmani | D | 94 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 60 | 53% | — | — | — |
| G. Di Lorenzo | D | 94 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 53 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Miguel Gutiérrez | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 43 | 39% | 4 | — | — |
| S. McTominay | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 39 | 35% | — | — | — |
| S. Lobotka | M | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 51 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Politano | M | 84 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 29% | — | 1 | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 94 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 31 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Giovane | F | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Højlund | F | 94 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Billy Gilmour | M | 18 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | — | — | — |
| E. Elmas | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| L. Spinazzola | D | 10 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| P. Mazzocchi | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massimo Pessina | G | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Juan Miranda | D | 94 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 56 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Helland | D | 82 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| João Mário | D | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | 3 | 1 | — |
| L. Ferguson | M | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| Remo Freuler | M | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 53 | 50% | — | — | — |
| T. Pobega | M | 81 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | F | 73 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 34% | — | 1 | — |
| S. Castro | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| R. Orsolini | F | 94 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Rowe | F | 21 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Nadir Zortea | D | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Moro | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Simon Sohm | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Napoli vs Bologna?
The final score was Napoli 2–3 Bologna.
What did the model predict before Napoli vs Bologna?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Napoli win, 28% to a draw, and 16% to an Bologna win.