← Serie A
Serie A · Regular Season - 36 May 11, 2026 20:45
Napoli
#2 · 70 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Bologna
#8 · 52 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Napoli, result Bologna vince
G. Di Lorenzo 45'+2
Alisson Santos (ast. R. Hojlund) 48'
10' (ast. J. Miranda) F. Bernardeschi
(pen.) 34' R. Orsolini
90'+1 J. Rowe

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 54% win probability (draw 28%, Bologna 16%). The final result was Napoli 2–3 Bologna. In 2 previous meetings, Napoli have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bologna.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
4
0.73
Actual xG
1.32
1
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
1
7
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
10'
ast. J. Miranda · F. Bernardeschi⚽
34'
(pen.) R. Orsolini⚽
38'
Joao Mario
⚽G. Di Lorenzo
45'+2
47'
F. Bernardeschi
⚽Alisson Santos · ast. R. Hojlund
48'
58'
E. Fauske Helland
64'
N. Zortea / Joao Mario ↕
69'
J. Lucumi
73'
J. Rowe / F. Bernardeschi ↕
↕ S. Lobotka / B. Gilmour
76'
↕ Giovane / E. Elmas
76'
81'
N. Moro / T. Pobega ↕
81'
S. Sohm / L. Ferguson ↕
82'
T. Heggem / E. Fauske Helland ↕
M. Politano
84'
↕ M. Politano / L. Spinazzola
85'
↕ M. Gutierrez / P. Mazzocchi
87'
90'+1
J. Rowe⚽
Pre-match prediction
54.17%
Napoli
28.99%
X
16.85%
Bologna ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bologna) 16.85% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Napoli
1.34
0.73
-0.61
Bologna
0.63
1.32
+0.69
Bologna dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.73). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Inter Inter 36 85
2 Napoli Napoli 36 70
3 Juventus Juventus 36 68
4 AC Milan AC Milan 36 67
5 AS Roma AS Roma 36 67
6 Como Como 36 65
7 Atalanta Atalanta 36 58
8 Bologna Bologna 36 52
9 Lazio Lazio 36 51
10 Udinese Udinese 36 50
11 Sassuolo Sassuolo 36 49
12 Torino Torino 36 44
13 Parma Parma 36 42
14 Genoa Genoa 36 41
15 Fiorentina Fiorentina 36 38
16 Cagliari Cagliari 36 37
17 Lecce Lecce 36 32
18 Cremonese Cremonese 36 31
19 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 36 20
20 Pisa Pisa 36 18
Lineups
Napoli Napoli 3-4-2-1
32 Vanja Milinković-Savić Vanja Milinković-Savić G 5.90
4 Alessandro Buongiorno Alessandro Buongiorno D 5.60
13 Amir Rrahmani Amir Rrahmani D 6.00
22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo Giovanni Di Lorenzo 1 ⚽ D 6.90
3 Miguel Gutiérrez Miguel Gutiérrez 87' M 6.70
8 Scott McTominay Scott McTominay M 6.90
68 Stanislav Lobotka Stanislav Lobotka 76' M 6.70
21 Matteo Politano Matteo Politano 84' M 7.00
27 Alisson Santos Alisson Santos 1 ⚽ F 8.20
23 Giovane Giovane 76' F 6.70
19 Rasmus Højlund Rasmus Højlund 1 👟 F 6.60
Bench
1 Alex Meret Alex Meret G
26 A. Vergara A. Vergara M
6 Billy Gilmour Billy Gilmour 18' M 6.50
20 Eljif Elmas Eljif Elmas 18' M 6.30
99 Frank Anguissa Frank Anguissa M
5 Juan Jesus Juan Jesus D
37 Leonardo Spinazzola Leonardo Spinazzola 10' D 6.20
17 M. Olivera M. Olivera D
14 Nikita Contini Nikita Contini G
30 Pasquale Mazzocchi Pasquale Mazzocchi 7' D
31 Sam Beukema Sam Beukema D
Bologna Bologna 4-3-3
25 Massimo Pessina Massimo Pessina G 5.90
33 Juan Miranda Juan Miranda 1 👟 D 7.30
26 Jhon Lucumí Jhon Lucumí D 6.90
5 Eivind Helland Eivind Helland 82' D 6.00
17 João Mário João Mário 64' D 6.30
19 Lewis Ferguson Lewis Ferguson 81' M 6.90
8 R. Freuler R. Freuler M 7.00
4 Tommaso Pobega Tommaso Pobega 81' M 6.60
10 F. Bernardeschi F. Bernardeschi 1 ⚽ 73' F 7.60
9 S. Castro S. Castro F 6.30
7 Riccardo Orsolini Riccardo Orsolini 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
30 Benjamín Domínguez Benjamín Domínguez F
22 Charalampos Lykogiannis Charalampos Lykogiannis D
13 Federico Ravaglia Federico Ravaglia G
21 Jens Odgaard Jens Odgaard F
11 J. Rowe J. Rowe 1 ⚽ 21' F 7.20
29 Lorenzo De Silvestri Lorenzo De Silvestri D
1 Łukasz Skorupski Łukasz Skorupski G
20 Nadir Zortea Nadir Zortea 30' D 6.70
6 Nikola Moro Nikola Moro 13' M 6.70
23 Simon Sohm Simon Sohm 13' M 6.30
24 Thijs Dallinga Thijs Dallinga F
14 Torbjørn Heggem Torbjørn Heggem 12' D 6.30
Best on the pitch
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos
F · Napoli
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 31 pass
F. Bernardeschi
F. Bernardeschi
F · Bologna
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 39 pass
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda
D · Bologna
7.30
1 👟
2 shots · 56 pass
Riccardo Orsolini
Riccardo Orsolini
F · Bologna
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 21 pass
J. Rowe
J. Rowe
F · Bologna
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 4 pass
R. Freuler
R. Freuler
M · Bologna
7.00
· 53 pass
Napoli Napoli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Vanja Milinković-Savić G 94 5.90 — — — 29 23% — — —
Alessandro Buongiorno D 94 5.60 — — — 65 61% — — —
Amir Rrahmani D 94 6.00 — — 2 60 53% — — —
Giovanni Di Lorenzo D 94 6.90 1 — 2 53 46% — — —
Miguel Gutiérrez M 87 6.70 — — — 43 39% 4 — —
Scott McTominay M 94 6.90 — — 3 39 35% — — —
Stanislav Lobotka M 76 6.70 — — — 51 47% 1 — —
Matteo Politano M 84 7.00 — — — 40 29% — 1 —
Alisson Santos F 94 8.20 1 — 2 31 29% 1 — —
Giovane F 76 6.70 — — 1 20 19% 1 — —
Rasmus Højlund F 94 6.60 — 1 — 17 14% — — —
Billy Gilmour M 18 6.50 — — — 14 14% — — —
Eljif Elmas M 18 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Leonardo Spinazzola D 10 6.20 — — — 2 1% — — —
Pasquale Mazzocchi D 7 — — — — — — — — —
Bologna Bologna — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Massimo Pessina G 94 5.90 — — — 43 22% — — —
Juan Miranda D 94 7.30 — 1 2 56 52% 2 — —
Jhon Lucumí D 94 6.90 — — — 57 50% 2 1 —
Eivind Helland D 82 6.00 — — — 42 37% — 1 —
João Mário D 64 6.30 — — — 20 18% 3 1 —
Lewis Ferguson M 81 6.90 — — 1 39 35% 3 — —
R. Freuler M 94 7.00 — — — 53 50% — — —
Tommaso Pobega M 81 6.60 — — — 40 34% 2 — —
F. Bernardeschi F 73 7.60 1 — 2 39 34% — 1 —
S. Castro F 94 6.30 — — 1 18 14% — — —
Riccardo Orsolini F 94 7.20 1 — 1 21 16% 2 — —
J. Rowe F 21 7.20 1 — 2 4 4% — — —
Nadir Zortea D 30 6.70 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
Nikola Moro M 13 6.70 — — — 9 8% — — —
Simon Sohm M 13 6.30 — — — 3 3% — — —
Torbjørn Heggem D 12 6.30 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Napoli vs Bologna?
The final score was Napoli 2–3 Bologna.
What did the model predict before Napoli vs Bologna?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Napoli win, 28% to a draw, and 16% to an Bologna win.