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← UEFA Nations League

Netherlands - Germany

#2 · 0 pts
vs
#1 · 0 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌤️ Mainly clear 26.2°C 💨 17 km/h 🌧️ 74% · Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.07%
Win
Netherlands
17.46%
Draw
40.48%
Win
Germany
2.81
Expected xG
2.86

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (5.65%)
1X2 Result
1 42%
X 17%
2 40%
Double Chance
1X 60%
X2 58%
12 83%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 86%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Netherlands a 42% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 40% for Germany. Expected goals are 2.8 for Netherlands and 2.9 for Germany (total 5.7), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 5.65% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Netherlands have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Germany.

Season Stats

Netherlands
2W 5D 1L
Germany
5W 3D 2L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
2.4
1.5
Conceded
1.2
5.5
Shots OT
6.2
4.9
Corners
5.4
58%
Poss.
61%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
90%
63%
O 2.5
70%
75%
BTTS
60%
13%
Clean Sht
30%
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
63%
O 3.5
88%
BTTS
Netherlands
2W 2D 0L · at home
Germany
2W 2D 0L · away
3.2
gls/g
1.8
1.5
Conceded
1.2
50%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
75%
100%
O 3.5
25%
75%
BTTS
100%
25%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Netherlands Germany →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.3% 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5%
1 1.0% 2.8% 4.0% 3.8% 2.7% 1.5%
2 1.4% 3.9% 5.6% 5.3% 3.8% 2.2%
3 1.3% 3.6% 5.2% 5.0% 3.6% 2.0%
4 0.9% 2.6% 3.7% 3.5% 2.5% 1.4%
5 0.5% 1.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8%

Recent form

D Spain 3–3
D Spain 2–2
D Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1
W Hungary 4–0
L Germany 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 15%
L France 0–2
L Portugal 1–2
D Italy 3–3
W Italy 1–2
D Hungary 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Netherlands Netherlands
Attack
45
Defence
70
Form
50
Germany Germany
Attack
64
Defence
75
Form
66
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Unavailable

Germany
N. Brown
N. Brown
Injured
N. Schlotterbeck
N. Schlotterbeck
Injured

UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Germany Germany 0 0
2 Netherlands Netherlands 0 0
3 Serbia Serbia 0 0
4 Greece Greece 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Netherlands Germany
Current #2 #1
Netherlands #1 #2
Draw #2 #1
Germany #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Netherlands vs Germany?
The model gives Netherlands a 42% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 40% for an Germany win.
How many goals are expected in Netherlands vs Germany?
Expected goals: Netherlands 2.8, Germany 2.9 (total 5.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Netherlands vs Germany?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 5.65%.