Netherlands - Germany
Weather at kick-off
🌤️
Mainly clear
26.2°C
💨 17 km/h
🌧️ 74%
· Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.07%
Win
Netherlands
17.46%
Draw
40.48%
Win
Germany
2.81
2.86
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–2
(5.65%)
1X2 Result
1
42%
X
17%
2
40%
Double Chance
1X
60%
X2
58%
12
83%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
86%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Netherlands a 42% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 40% for Germany. Expected goals are 2.8 for Netherlands and 2.9 for Germany (total 5.7), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 5.65% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Netherlands have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Germany.
Season Stats
2W
5D
1L
5W
3D
2L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
2.4
1.5
Conceded
1.2
5.5
Shots OT
6.2
4.9
Corners
5.4
58%
Poss.
61%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
90%
63%
O 2.5
70%
75%
BTTS
60%
13%
Clean Sht
30%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
63%
O 3.5
88%
BTTS
2W
2D
0L
· at home
2W
2D
0L
· away
3.2
gls/g
1.8
1.5
Conceded
1.2
50%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
75%
100%
O 3.5
25%
75%
BTTS
100%
25%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Netherlands
Germany →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 1.4% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Netherlands
Attack
45
Defence
70
Form
50
Germany
Attack
64
Defence
75
Form
66
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Unavailable
Germany
Injured
Injured
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Germany
|
0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Netherlands
|
0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Serbia
|
0 | 0 |
| 4 |
Greece
|
0 | 0 |
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #1 |
| → Netherlands | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → Germany | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Netherlands vs Germany?
The model gives Netherlands a 42% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 40% for an Germany win.
How many goals are expected in Netherlands vs Germany?
Expected goals: Netherlands 2.8, Germany 2.9 (total 5.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Netherlands vs Germany?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 5.65%.