New York City FC - Atlanta United FC
MLS
October 29, 2026 00:30
⚡ Pre-match analysis
48.46%
Win
New York City FC
24.82%
Draw
26.72%
Win
Atlanta United FC
1.62
1.17
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(11.82%)
1X2 Result
1
48%
X
25%
2
27%
Double Chance
✓ 90.2% hit rate (61 picks)
1X
73%
X2
52%
12
75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
54%
✓ 75.7% hit rate (144 picks)
The ForzaPitch prediction gives New York City FC a 48% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Atlanta United FC. Expected goals are 1.6 for New York City FC and 1.2 for Atlanta United FC (total 2.8), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.82% probability. In 1 previous meetings, New York City FC have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atlanta United FC.
Season Stats
2W
7D
6L
5W
3D
7L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.5
1.4
Conceded
1.9
4.3
Shots OT
3.7
5.0
Corners
5.1
53%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
87%
47%
O 2.5
80%
73%
BTTS
73%
13%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in MLS. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
35%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
2W
4D
4L
· at home
3W
3D
4L
· away
1.5
gls/g
1.3
1.5
Conceded
1.5
20%
Win %
30%
60%
Win or Draw
60%
80%
O 1.5
70%
50%
O 2.5
60%
30%
O 3.5
40%
60%
BTTS
50%
20%
Clean Sht
30%
30%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ New York City FC
Atlanta United FC →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
New York City FC
Attack
41
Defence
59
Form
39
Atlanta United FC
Attack
39
Defence
60
Form
47
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
1
Draw
0
27 Sep 2026
2–2
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Nashville SC
|
31 | 70 |
| 2 |
New England Revolution
|
31 | 55 |
| 3 |
Inter Miami
|
31 | 55 |
| 4 |
Chicago Fire
|
31 | 51 |
| 5 |
Charlotte
|
31 | 47 |
| 6 |
Philadelphia Union
|
31 | 46 |
| 7 |
Orlando City SC
|
31 | 42 |
| 8 |
FC Cincinnati
|
31 | 42 |
| 9 |
New York Red Bulls
|
31 | 39 |
| 10 |
Columbus Crew
|
31 | 38 |
| 11 |
Toronto FC
|
31 | 36 |
| 12 |
New York City FC
|
31 | 35 |
| 13 |
DC United
|
31 | 33 |
| 14 |
Atlanta United FC
|
31 | 30 |
| 15 |
CF Montreal
|
31 | 25 |
What's at stake · Eastern Conference
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #12 | #14 |
| → New York City FC | #10 | #14 |
| → Draw | #11 | #14 |
| → Atlanta United FC | #12 | #13 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?
The model gives New York City FC a 48% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 26% for an Atlanta United FC win.
How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?
Expected goals: New York City FC 1.6, Atlanta United FC 1.2 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.82%.