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MLS · Regular Season - 17 July 26, 2026 01:30
New York City FC
#9 · 29 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Chicago Fire
#4 · 39 pts
N. Mercau 10'
A. Ojeda (ast. A. Perea) 29'
M. Jones (ast. A. Ojeda) 41'
21' J. Waterman
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave New York City FC a 40% win probability (draw 25%, Chicago Fire 34%). The final result was New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
7
3
Shots on target
5
1.39
Actual xG
1.36
4
Saves
0
47%
Possession
53%
1
Corners
2
22
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽N. Mercau
10'
21'
J. Waterman⚽
⚽A. Ojeda · ast. A. Perea
29'
⚽M. Jones · ast. A. Ojeda
41'
46'
R. Lewandowski / M. Haile-Selassie ↕
46'
J. Dean / L. Barroso ↕
51'
D. D'Avilla
N. Mercau
62'
63'
M. Pineda / D. D'Avilla ↕
↕ M. Jones / B. Traore
69'
71'
A. Gutman / V. Radojevic ↕
71'
P. Dithejane / R. Lod ↕
77'
J. Waterman
80'
P. Dithejane
↕ Talles Magno / H. Wolf
85'
↕ J. Shore / A. Farnos
85'
↕ A. Ojeda / M. Ilenic
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
40.21%
New ←
25.45%
X
34.34%
Chicago
we assigned to the actual result (New York City FC) 40.21% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
New
1.45
1.39
-0.06
Chicago
1.39
1.36
-0.03
xG dominance was balanced (1.39 – 1.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 24 53
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 24 44
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 24 40
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 23 39
5 Charlotte Charlotte 24 39
6 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 24 31
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 23 31
8 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 24 30
9 New York City FC New York City FC 24 29
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 24 29
11 DC United DC United 23 28
12 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 24 27
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 24 23
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 24 22
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 24 21
Lineups
New York City FC New York City FC 4-1-4-1
49 M. Freese M. Freese G 6.90
2 Nico Cavallo Nico Cavallo D 7.00
6 J. Sands J. Sands D 6.70
13 Thiago Martins Thiago Martins D 7.00
24 T. Gray T. Gray D 7.00
32 J. Shore J. Shore 85' M 7.00
88 M. Jones M. Jones 1 ⚽ 69' M 7.30
8 A. Perea A. Perea 1 👟 M 7.60
7 N. Fernández Mercau N. Fernández Mercau 1 ⚽ M 8.50
26 A. Ojeda A. Ojeda 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' M 8.50
11 Talles Magno Talles Magno 85' F 6.90
Bench
87 Arnau Farnos Arnau Farnos 11' F 6.70
9 B. Traoré B. Traoré 21' F 6.20
17 H. Wolf H. Wolf 11' F 6.70
15 Kevin Pierre Kevin Pierre M
29 Máximo Carrizo Máximo Carrizo M
23 Maxwell Murray Maxwell Murray D
35 M. Ilenič M. Ilenič 1' D
99 S. Reid S. Reid F
30 T. Romero T. Romero G
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-4-2
1 C. Brady C. Brady G 5.20
14 Viktor Radojević Viktor Radojević 71' D 6.00
3 J. Elliott J. Elliott D 6.30
16 J. Waterman J. Waterman 1 ⚽ D 7.50
2 Leonardo Barroso Leonardo Barroso 45' D 5.90
19 Jonathan Bamba Jonathan Bamba M 6.30
42 T. D'Avilla T. D'Avilla 63' M 6.20
6 A. Salétros A. Salétros M 6.90
11 P. Zinckernagel P. Zinckernagel M 7.50
7 M. Haile-Selassie M. Haile-Selassie 45' F 6.50
17 R. Lod R. Lod 71' F 6.20
Bench
15 A. Gutman A. Gutman 19' D 6.30
20 Jason Shokalook Jason Shokalook F
44 J. Cohen J. Cohen G
24 J. Dean J. Dean 45' D 7.30
22 M. Pineda M. Pineda 27' D 6.60
12 P. Dithejane P. Dithejane 19' F 6.20
9 R. Lewandowski R. Lewandowski 45' F 6.20
35 S. Oregel S. Oregel M
5 S. Rogers S. Rogers D
Best on the pitch
N. Fernández Mercau
N. Fernández Mercau
M · New
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 45 pass
A. Ojeda
A. Ojeda
M · New
8.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 15 pass
A. Perea
A. Perea
M · New
7.60
1 👟
· 49 pass
P. Zinckernagel
P. Zinckernagel
M · Chicago
7.50
· 36 pass
J. Waterman
J. Waterman
D · Chicago
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 75 pass
M. Jones
M. Jones
M · New
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 11 pass
New York City FC New York City FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Freese G 90 6.90 — — — 19 13% — — —
Nico Cavallo D 90 7.00 — — — 47 36% 3 — —
J. Sands D 90 6.70 — — — 62 51% 4 — —
Thiago Martins D 90 7.00 — — — 55 50% — — —
T. Gray D 90 7.00 — — 1 43 38% 4 — —
J. Shore M 85 7.00 — — — 37 30% 4 — —
M. Jones M 69 7.30 1 — 1 11 8% 2 — —
A. Perea M 90 7.60 — 1 — 49 39% 2 — —
N. Fernández Mercau M 90 8.50 1 — 1 45 38% 1 1 —
A. Ojeda M 89 8.50 1 1 1 15 11% 1 — —
Talles Magno F 85 6.90 — — 1 27 16% — — —
Arnau Farnos F 11 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
B. Traoré F 21 6.20 — — 1 4 4% — — —
H. Wolf F 11 6.70 — — 1 6 6% 1 — —
M. Ilenič D 1 — — — — 2 2% — — —
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Brady G 90 5.20 — — — 28 19% — — —
Viktor Radojević D 71 6.00 — — — 21 18% 2 — —
J. Elliott D 90 6.30 — — — 65 53% 2 — —
J. Waterman D 90 7.50 1 — 1 75 65% 2 1 —
Leonardo Barroso D 45 5.90 — — — 22 20% 3 — —
Jonathan Bamba M 90 6.30 — — — 39 32% 2 — —
T. D'Avilla M 63 6.20 — — — 39 30% 2 1 —
A. Salétros M 90 6.90 — — 2 55 46% 3 — —
P. Zinckernagel M 90 7.50 — — — 36 29% 4 — —
M. Haile-Selassie F 45 6.50 — — — 10 7% — — —
R. Lod F 71 6.20 — — — 19 11% 1 — —
A. Gutman D 19 6.30 — — — 9 7% — — —
J. Dean D 45 7.30 — — — 17 15% — — —
M. Pineda D 27 6.60 — — 1 31 27% 1 — —
P. Dithejane F 19 6.20 — — 1 2 1% — 1 —
R. Lewandowski F 45 6.20 — — 2 10 9% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
The final score was New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire.
What did the model predict before New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
The model assigned 40% probability to a New York City FC win, 25% to a draw, and 34% to an Chicago Fire win.