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MLS · Regular Season - 18 August 01, 2026 01:30
New York City FC
#9 · 29 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Toronto FC
#10 · 29 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction New York City FC, result Draw
N. Mercau 8' (pen.)
45'+6 D. Mihailovic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave New York City FC a 61% win probability (draw 22%, Toronto FC 15%). The final result was New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FC. In 1 previous meetings, New York City FC have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toronto FC.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
5
2.08
Actual xG
1.00
4
Saves
4
49%
Possession
51%
3
Corners
2
16
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
6'
R. Laryea
⚽N. Mercau (pen.)
8'
Talles Magno
11'
N. Mercau
18'
45'+6
J. Osorio
45'+6
D. Mihailovic⚽
56'
N. Dorsch
↕ B. Traore / M. Jones
59'
↕ A. Ojeda / H. Wolf
59'
61'
J. Gilman
71'
A. Coello / N. Dorsch ↕
71'
D. Kerr / J. Sargent ↕
72'
D. Etienne / D. Mihailovic ↕
↕ Talles Magno / M. Carrizo
72'
↕ N. Mercau / S. Reid
86'
↕ Thiago Martins / M. Ilenic
86'
87'
M. Henry / T. Corbeanu ↕
Pre-match prediction
61.99%
New
22.25%
X ←
15.76%
Toronto
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 22.25% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
New
1.79
2.08
+0.29
Toronto
0.67
1.00
+0.33
New York City FC dominated by xG (2.08 vs 1.00). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 24 53
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 24 44
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 24 40
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 23 39
5 Charlotte Charlotte 24 39
6 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 24 31
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 23 31
8 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 24 30
9 New York City FC New York City FC 24 29
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 24 29
11 DC United DC United 23 28
12 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 24 27
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 24 23
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 24 22
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 24 21
Lineups
New York City FC New York City FC 4-1-4-1
49 M. Freese M. Freese G 7.30
2 Nico Cavallo Nico Cavallo D 7.20
6 J. Sands J. Sands D 7.60
13 Thiago Martins Thiago Martins 86' D 6.30
24 T. Gray T. Gray D 7.50
32 J. Shore J. Shore M 7.00
9 B. Traoré B. Traoré 59' M 6.30
8 A. Perea A. Perea M 6.20
7 N. Fernández Mercau N. Fernández Mercau 1 ⚽ 86' M 7.90
26 A. Ojeda A. Ojeda 59' M 7.30
11 Talles Magno Talles Magno 72' F 6.20
Bench
27 Cooper Flax Cooper Flax M
17 H. Wolf H. Wolf 31' F 6.70
15 Kevin Pierre Kevin Pierre M
29 Máximo Carrizo Máximo Carrizo 18' M 6.30
23 Maxwell Murray Maxwell Murray D
35 M. Ilenič M. Ilenič 10' D 6.90
88 M. Jones M. Jones 31' F 6.30
99 S. Reid S. Reid 10' F 6.70
30 T. Romero T. Romero G
Toronto FC Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
1 L. Gavran L. Gavran G 7.70
22 R. Laryea R. Laryea D 6.30
38 J. Gilman J. Gilman D 6.90
25 W. Zimmerman W. Zimmerman D 6.60
19 K. Franklin K. Franklin D 7.00
6 N. Dorsch N. Dorsch 71' M 6.90
21 J. Osorio J. Osorio M 6.60
20 D. Sallói D. Sallói M 7.30
10 D. Mihailović D. Mihailović 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.70
7 T. Corbeanu T. Corbeanu 87' M 6.70
9 J. Sargent J. Sargent 71' F 6.30
Bench
14 Alonso Coello Alonso Coello 19' M 7.20
13 B. Kuscevic B. Kuscevic D
29 Deandre Kerr Deandre Kerr 19' F 6.60
11 D. Etienne D. Etienne 18' F 6.30
17 Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga F
99 Jules-Anthony Vilsaint Jules-Anthony Vilsaint F
78 Malik Henry Malik Henry 9' M 6.60
44 R. Edwards R. Edwards D
23 W. Yarbrough W. Yarbrough G
Best on the pitch
N. Fernández Mercau
N. Fernández Mercau
M · New
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 32 pass
D. Mihailović
D. Mihailović
M · Toronto
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 23 pass
L. Gavran
L. Gavran
G · Toronto
7.70
· 31 pass
J. Sands
J. Sands
D · New
7.60
1 shots · 63 pass
T. Gray
T. Gray
D · New
7.50
· 41 pass
M. Freese
M. Freese
G · New
7.30
· 19 pass
New York City FC New York City FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Freese G 90 7.30 — — — 19 14% — — —
Nico Cavallo D 90 7.20 — — — 28 26% 4 — —
J. Sands D 90 7.60 — — 1 63 55% 1 — —
Thiago Martins D 86 6.30 — — — 64 58% — — —
T. Gray D 90 7.50 — — — 41 35% 3 — —
J. Shore M 90 7.00 — — 1 30 21% 3 — —
B. Traoré M 59 6.30 — — 1 11 7% — — —
A. Perea M 90 6.20 — — 2 22 14% — — —
N. Fernández Mercau M 86 7.90 1 — 2 32 29% 2 1 —
A. Ojeda M 59 7.30 — — 1 10 7% — — —
Talles Magno F 72 6.20 — — 3 13 11% — 1 —
H. Wolf F 31 6.70 — — — 9 8% — — —
Máximo Carrizo M 18 6.30 — — — 5 4% 2 — —
M. Ilenič D 10 6.90 — — 1 3 2% — — —
M. Jones F 31 6.30 — — — 11 8% 1 — —
S. Reid F 10 6.70 — — — 2 2% — — —
Toronto FC Toronto FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Gavran G 90 7.70 — — — 31 18% — — —
R. Laryea D 90 6.30 — — 1 33 26% 1 1 —
J. Gilman D 90 6.90 — — 1 53 47% — 1 —
W. Zimmerman D 90 6.60 — — — 45 33% 2 — —
K. Franklin D 90 7.00 — — — 34 27% 5 — —
N. Dorsch M 71 6.90 — — — 34 31% 2 1 —
J. Osorio M 90 6.60 — — 1 31 25% — 1 —
D. Sallói M 90 7.30 — — 5 31 24% — — —
D. Mihailović M 72 7.70 1 — 1 23 19% 1 — —
T. Corbeanu M 87 6.70 — — — 17 16% — — —
J. Sargent F 71 6.30 — — — 11 5% — — —
Alonso Coello M 19 7.20 — — 1 18 16% 1 — —
Deandre Kerr F 19 6.60 — — — 5 2% 3 — —
D. Etienne F 18 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Malik Henry M 9 6.60 — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
The final score was New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FC.
What did the model predict before New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
The model assigned 61% probability to a New York City FC win, 22% to a draw, and 15% to an Toronto FC win.