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MLS · Regular Season - 28 October 11, 2026 01:30 Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
New York Red Bulls
#9 · 39 pts
4 – 1
Final score
San Diego
#12 · 35 pts
Julian Hall (ast. Jorge Ruvalcaba) 15'
Devin Padelford (ast. Cade Cowell) 20'
Jorge Ruvalcaba (ast. Ronald Donkor) 27'
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (ast. Matthew Dos Santos) 90'+3
60' (ast. Anders Dreyer) Cédric Bakambu
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave New York Red Bulls a 51% win probability (draw 19%, San Diego 28%). The final result was New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego.

Match statistics
28
Total shots
14
12
Shots on target
5
3.08
Actual xG
2.11
4
Saves
8
36%
Possession
64%
4
Corners
7
18
Tackles
19
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Julian Hall · ast. Jorge Ruvalcaba
15'
⚽Devin Padelford · ast. Cade Cowell
20'
⚽Jorge Ruvalcaba · ast. Ronald Donkor
27'
30'
Jeppe Tverskov
Julian Bazan
42'
44'
(missed pen.) Anders Dreyer⚽
45'
Alejandro Alvarado Jr / Jeppe Tverskov ↕
45'
Cédric Bakambu / Marcus Ingvartsen ↕
55'
Manu Duah
60'
ast. Anders Dreyer · Cédric Bakambu⚽
61'
David Evra Mimbang Nyangono / Gabriel Pirani ↕
61'
Christopher McVey / Ian Murphy ↕
↕ Justin Che / Tim Parker
61'
↕ Ronald Donkor / Sekou Kone
71'
↕ Mohammed Sofo / Emil Forsberg
71'
↕ Cade Cowell / Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
71'
79'
Amahl Pellegrino / Elias Achouri ↕
↕ Jorge Ruvalcaba / Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
81'
Devin Padelford
82'
85'
kieran sargeant
↕ Devin Padelford / Matthew Dos Santos
88'
90'+1
Onni Valakari / Aníbal Godoy ↕
⚽Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · ast. Matthew Dos Santos
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
51.7%
New ←
19.9%
X
28.4%
San
we assigned to the actual result (New York Red Bulls) 51.7% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
New
2.31
3.08
+0.77
San
1.60
2.11
+0.51
New York Red Bulls dominated by xG (3.08 vs 2.11). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 31 70
2 New England Revolution New England Revolution 31 55
3 Inter Miami Inter Miami 31 55
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 31 51
5 Charlotte Charlotte 31 47
6 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 31 46
7 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 31 42
8 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 31 42
9 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 31 39
10 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 31 38
11 Toronto FC Toronto FC 31 36
12 New York City FC New York City FC 31 35
13 DC United DC United 31 33
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 31 30
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 31 25
Lineups
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
34 E. Horvath E. Horvath G 7.28
59 D. Padelford D. Padelford 1 ⚽ 88' D 7.14
14 J. Bazán J. Bazán D 6.02
2 J. Che J. Che 61' D 6.57
12 D. Nealis D. Nealis D 6.94
37 M. Sofo M. Sofo 71' M 6.35
15 A. Mehmeti A. Mehmeti M 6.54
48 R. Donkor R. Donkor 1 👟 71' M 7.56
7 C. Cowell C. Cowell 1 👟 71' F 7.45
16 J. Hall J. Hall 1 ⚽ F 8.20
11 J. Ruvalcaba J. Ruvalcaba 1 ⚽ 1 👟 81' F 9.00
Bench
8 D. Ruíz D. Ruíz M 0.00
13 E. Choupo-Moting E. Choupo-Moting 1 ⚽ 19' F 8.15
10 E. Forsberg E. Forsberg 19' M 6.44
3 J. Marshall-Rutty J. Marshall-Rutty 9' D 6.55
77 J. McCarthy J. McCarthy G 0.00
56 M. Dos Santos M. Dos Santos 1 👟 2' D 6.84
60 S. Kone S. Kone 19' M 6.59
26 T. Parker T. Parker 29' D 6.38
San Diego San Diego 4-3-3
1 C. dos Santos C. dos Santos G 6.72
5 Kieran Sargeant Kieran Sargeant D 5.47
32 I. Murphy I. Murphy 61' D 5.80
26 M. Duah M. Duah D 6.22
33 O. Verhoeven O. Verhoeven D 5.53
12 Gabriel Pirani Gabriel Pirani 61' M 5.80
6 J. Tverskov J. Tverskov 45' M 5.58
20 A. Godoy A. Godoy 89' M 6.28
99 E. Achouri E. Achouri 79' F 6.51
7 M. Ingvartsen M. Ingvartsen 45' F 6.76
10 A. Dreyer A. Dreyer 1 👟 F 7.70
Bench
70 A. Alvarado A. Alvarado 45' F 6.42
90 A. Pellegrino A. Pellegrino 11' F 6.29
14 B. B. Zamble B. B. Zamble F 0.00
94 C. Bakambu C. Bakambu 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.48
97 C. McVey C. McVey 29' D 6.10
3 D. Þór­halls­son D. Þór­halls­son D 0.00
8 O. Valakari O. Valakari 1' M 0.00
13 P. Sisniega P. Sisniega G 0.00
Best on the pitch
J. Ruvalcaba
J. Ruvalcaba
F · New
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots · 10 pass
J. Hall
J. Hall
F · New
8.20
1 ⚽
7 shots · 20 pass
E. Choupo-Moting
E. Choupo-Moting
F · New
8.15
1 ⚽
2 shots · 9 pass
A. Dreyer
A. Dreyer
F · San
7.70
1 👟
3 shots · 42 pass
R. Donkor
R. Donkor
M · New
7.56
1 👟
· 30 pass
C. Bakambu
C. Bakambu
F · San
7.48
1 ⚽
3 shots · 9 pass
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Horvath G 90 7.28 — — 0 21 14% 0 — —
D. Padelford D 88 7.14 1 — 1 22 16% 3 1 —
J. Bazán D 90 6.02 — — 0 35 28% 0 1 —
J. Che D 61 6.57 — — 1 26 19% 0 — —
D. Nealis D 90 6.94 — — 0 38 26% 3 — —
M. Sofo M 71 6.35 — — 1 20 12% 2 — —
A. Mehmeti M 90 6.54 — — 0 46 41% 2 — —
R. Donkor M 71 7.56 — 1 0 30 25% 4 — —
C. Cowell F 71 7.45 — 1 6 13 9% 0 — —
J. Hall F 90 8.20 1 — 7 20 16% 2 — —
J. Ruvalcaba F 81 9.00 1 1 4 10 7% 1 — —
E. Choupo-Moting F 19 8.15 1 — 2 9 7% 0 — —
E. Forsberg M 19 6.44 — — 3 5 4% 0 — —
J. Marshall-Rutty D 9 6.55 — — 1 12 9% 0 — —
M. Dos Santos D 2 6.84 — 1 0 2 2% 0 — —
S. Kone M 19 6.59 — — 2 16 15% 1 — —
T. Parker D 29 6.38 — — 0 17 11% 0 — —
San Diego San Diego — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. dos Santos G 90 6.72 — — 0 13 11% 0 — —
Kieran Sargeant D 90 5.47 — — 0 58 46% 1 1 —
I. Murphy D 61 5.80 — — 0 37 29% 2 — —
M. Duah D 90 6.22 — — 0 85 69% 3 1 —
O. Verhoeven D 90 5.53 — — 1 50 37% 2 — —
Gabriel Pirani M 61 5.80 — — 0 35 28% 1 — —
J. Tverskov M 45 5.58 — — 0 49 37% 1 1 —
A. Godoy M 89 6.28 — — 0 86 73% 5 — —
E. Achouri F 79 6.51 — — 1 29 22% 2 — —
M. Ingvartsen F 45 6.76 — — 4 11 9% 0 — —
A. Dreyer F 90 7.70 — 1 3 42 32% 0 — —
A. Alvarado F 45 6.42 — — 1 30 28% 1 — —
A. Pellegrino F 11 6.29 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
C. Bakambu F 45 7.48 1 — 3 9 5% 0 — —
C. McVey D 29 6.10 — — 1 24 20% 0 — —
O. Valakari M 1 0.00 — — 0 3 3% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
The final score was New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego.
What did the model predict before New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
The model assigned 51% probability to a New York Red Bulls win, 19% to a draw, and 28% to an San Diego win.