✓Model correct — prediction Belgium
E. Just
84'
28'
L. Trossard
50'
(ast. H. Vanaken)
L. Trossard
66'
K. De Bruyne
86'
(ast. N. Raskin)
R. Lukaku
90'+4
(ast. R. Lukaku)
A. Saelemaekers
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Belgium a 63% win probability (draw 20%, New Zealand 16%). The final result was New Zealand 1–5 Belgium.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
22
2
Shots on target
9
0.24
Actual xG
3.59
5
Saves
1
45%
Possession
55%
5
Corners
8
10
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
28'
L. Trossard⚽
S. Singh
/ J. Randall
46'
R. Thomas
/ B. Old
46'
M. Stamenic
46'
50'
ast. H. Vanaken ·
L. Trossard⚽
E. Just
56'
56'
M. Fernandez-Pardo
/
J. Doku
T. Payne
/ M. Boxall
64'
J. Bell
/ C. McCowatt
64'
66'
K. De Bruyne⚽
72'
A. Saelemaekers
/
L. Trossard
72'
A. Onana
/
K. De Bruyne
L. Cacace
/ F. De Vries
79'
⚽E. Just
84'
85'
R. Lukaku
/
C. De Ketelaere
85'
N. Raskin
/
Y. Tielemans
86'
ast. N. Raskin ·
R. Lukaku⚽
90'+4
ast. R. Lukaku ·
A. Saelemaekers⚽
Pre-match prediction
16.53%
New
20.18%
X
63.29%
Belgium ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Belgium)
63.29%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.21
0.24
-0.97
2.51
3.59
+1.08
Belgium dominated by xG (3.59 vs 0.24).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
M. Crocombe
G
M. Crocombe
G
13
Liberato Cacace
79'
D
Liberato Cacace
79'
D
4
Tyler Bindon
D
Tyler Bindon
D
16
F. Surman
D
F. Surman
D
2
T. Payne
64'
D
T. Payne
64'
D
8
M. Stamenić
M
M. Stamenić
M
6
J. Bell
64'
M
J. Bell
64'
M
11
E. Just
1 ⚽
M
E. Just
1 ⚽
M
23
R. Thomas
45'
M
R. Thomas
45'
M
10
S. Singh
45'
M
S. Singh
45'
M
9
C. Wood
F
C. Wood
F
Bench
14
Alex Rufer
M
Alex Rufer
M
12
A. Paulsen
G
A. Paulsen
G
19
B. Old
48'
F
B. Old
48'
F
18
B. Waine
F
B. Waine
F
24
Callan Elliot
D
Callan Elliot
D
20
C. McCowatt
29'
M
C. McCowatt
29'
M
3
F. de Vries
14'
D
F. de Vries
14'
D
21
J. Randall
48'
F
J. Randall
48'
F
17
K. Barbarouses
F
K. Barbarouses
F
25
Lachlan Bayliss
M
Lachlan Bayliss
M
7
Logan Rogerson
F
Logan Rogerson
F
5
M. Boxall
29'
D
M. Boxall
29'
D
22
Michael Woud
G
Michael Woud
G
15
Nando Pijnaker
D
Nando Pijnaker
D
26
Tommy Smith
D
Tommy Smith
D
1
T. Courtois
G
T. Courtois
G
5
M. De Cuyper
D
M. De Cuyper
D
3
A. Theate
D
A. Theate
D
4
Brandon Mechele
D
Brandon Mechele
D
21
T. Castagne
D
T. Castagne
D
20
Hans Vanaken
1 👟
M
Hans Vanaken
1 👟
M
8
Y. Tielemans
85'
M
Y. Tielemans
85'
M
10
Leandro Trossard
2 ⚽
72'
M
Leandro Trossard
2 ⚽
72'
M
7
K. De Bruyne
1 ⚽
72'
M
K. De Bruyne
1 ⚽
72'
M
11
J. Doku
56'
M
J. Doku
56'
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
85'
F
C. De Ketelaere
85'
F
Bench
24
Amadou Onana
21'
M
Amadou Onana
21'
M
22
A. Saelemaekers
1 ⚽
21'
F
A. Saelemaekers
1 ⚽
21'
F
6
A. Witsel
M
A. Witsel
M
19
Diego Moreira
F
Diego Moreira
F
14
D. Lukebakio
F
D. Lukebakio
F
18
J. Seys
D
J. Seys
D
16
K. De Winter
D
K. De Winter
D
26
M. Fernandez-Pardo
37'
F
M. Fernandez-Pardo
37'
F
13
M. Penders
G
M. Penders
G
23
N. Raskin
1 👟
8'
M
N. Raskin
1 👟
8'
M
9
Romelu Lukaku
1 ⚽
1 👟
8'
F
Romelu Lukaku
1 ⚽
1 👟
8'
F
12
S. Lammens
G
S. Lammens
G
15
T. Meunier
D
T. Meunier
D
Best on the pitch
K. De Bruyne
M · Belgium
8.90
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 47 pass
Leandro Trossard
M · Belgium
8.30
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 30 pass
N. Raskin
M · Belgium
7.30
1 👟
· 5 pass
E. Just
M · New
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 40 pass
Romelu Lukaku
F · Belgium
7.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 2 pass
S. Singh
M · New
7.20
· 15 pass
New Zealand — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Crocombe | G | 93 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Liberato Cacace | D | 79 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Tyler Bindon | D | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Surman | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Payne | D | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Stamenić | M | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 57 | 55% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Bell | M | 64 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 32% | — | — | — |
| E. Just | M | 93 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 40 | 32% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Thomas | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Singh | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| C. Wood | F | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Old | F | 48 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| C. McCowatt | M | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| F. de Vries | D | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| J. Randall | F | 48 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| M. Boxall | D | 29 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
Belgium — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Courtois | G | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| M. De Cuyper | D | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 58 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Theate | D | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | 4 | 45 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Brandon Mechele | D | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 58 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Castagne | D | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Hans Vanaken | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 50 | 49% | — | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Leandro Trossard | M | 72 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 3 | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| K. De Bruyne | M | 72 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 47 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Doku | M | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 85 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Saelemaekers | F | 21 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | F | 37 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Raskin | M | 8 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 5 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Romelu Lukaku | F | 8 | 7.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of New Zealand vs Belgium?
The final score was New Zealand 1–5 Belgium.
What did the model predict before New Zealand vs Belgium?
The model assigned 16% probability to a New Zealand win, 20% to a draw, and 63% to an Belgium win.