✓Model correct — prediction Belgium
E. Just
84'
28'
L. Trossard
50'
(ast. H. Vanaken)
L. Trossard
66'
K. De Bruyne
86'
(ast. N. Raskin)
R. Lukaku
90'+4
(ast. R. Lukaku)
A. Saelemaekers
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Belgium a 63% win probability (draw 20%, New Zealand 16%). The final result was New Zealand 1–5 Belgium.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
22
2
Shots on target
9
0.24
Actual xG
3.59
5
Saves
1
45%
Possession
55%
5
Corners
8
10
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
28'
L. Trossard⚽
S. Singh
/ J. Randall
46'
R. Thomas
/ B. Old
46'
M. Stamenic
46'
50'
ast. H. Vanaken ·
L. Trossard⚽
E. Just
56'
56'
M. Fernandez-Pardo
/
J. Doku
T. Payne
/ M. Boxall
64'
J. Bell
/ C. McCowatt
64'
66'
K. De Bruyne⚽
72'
A. Saelemaekers
/
L. Trossard
72'
A. Onana
/
K. De Bruyne
L. Cacace
/ F. De Vries
79'
⚽E. Just
84'
85'
R. Lukaku
/
C. De Ketelaere
85'
N. Raskin
/
Y. Tielemans
86'
ast. N. Raskin ·
R. Lukaku⚽
90'+4
ast. R. Lukaku ·
A. Saelemaekers⚽
Pre-match prediction
16.53%
New
20.18%
X
63.29%
Belgium ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Belgium)
63.29%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.21
0.24
-0.97
2.51
3.59
+1.08
Belgium dominated by xG (3.59 vs 0.24).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Max Crocombe
G
Max Crocombe
G
13
Liberato Cacace
79'
D
Liberato Cacace
79'
D
4
Tyler Bindon
D
Tyler Bindon
D
16
Finn Surman
D
Finn Surman
D
2
T. Payne
64'
D
T. Payne
64'
D
8
M. Stamenić
M
M. Stamenić
M
6
Joe Bell
64'
M
Joe Bell
64'
M
11
E. Just
1 ⚽
M
E. Just
1 ⚽
M
23
Ryan Thomas
45'
M
Ryan Thomas
45'
M
10
S. Singh
45'
M
S. Singh
45'
M
9
C. Wood
F
C. Wood
F
Bench
12
Alex Paulsen
G
Alex Paulsen
G
14
Alex Rufer
M
Alex Rufer
M
19
Benjamin Old
48'
F
Benjamin Old
48'
F
18
B. Waine
F
B. Waine
F
24
Callan Elliot
D
Callan Elliot
D
20
C. McCowatt
29'
M
C. McCowatt
29'
M
3
F. de Vries
14'
D
F. de Vries
14'
D
21
Jesse Randall
48'
F
Jesse Randall
48'
F
17
K. Barbarouses
F
K. Barbarouses
F
25
Lachlan Bayliss
M
Lachlan Bayliss
M
7
Logan Rogerson
F
Logan Rogerson
F
5
Michael Boxall
29'
D
Michael Boxall
29'
D
22
Michael Woud
G
Michael Woud
G
15
Nando Pijnaker
D
Nando Pijnaker
D
26
Tommy Smith
D
Tommy Smith
D
1
Thibaut Courtois
G
Thibaut Courtois
G
5
Maxim De Cuyper
D
Maxim De Cuyper
D
3
A. Theate
D
A. Theate
D
4
Brandon Mechele
D
Brandon Mechele
D
21
Timothy Castagne
D
Timothy Castagne
D
20
Hans Vanaken
1 👟
M
Hans Vanaken
1 👟
M
8
Youri Tielemans
85'
M
Youri Tielemans
85'
M
10
Leandro Trossard
2 ⚽
72'
M
Leandro Trossard
2 ⚽
72'
M
7
Kevin De Bruyne
1 ⚽
72'
M
Kevin De Bruyne
1 ⚽
72'
M
11
J. Doku
56'
M
J. Doku
56'
M
17
Charles De Ketelaere
85'
F
Charles De Ketelaere
85'
F
Bench
22
Alexis Saelemaekers
1 ⚽
21'
F
Alexis Saelemaekers
1 ⚽
21'
F
24
Amadou Onana
21'
M
Amadou Onana
21'
M
6
Axel Witsel
M
Axel Witsel
M
19
Diego Moreira
F
Diego Moreira
F
14
Dodi Lukebakio
F
Dodi Lukebakio
F
18
Joaquin Seys
D
Joaquin Seys
D
16
Koni De Winter
D
Koni De Winter
D
26
Matías Fernández-Pardo
37'
F
Matías Fernández-Pardo
37'
F
13
Mike Penders
G
Mike Penders
G
23
Nicolas Raskin
1 👟
8'
M
Nicolas Raskin
1 👟
8'
M
9
R. Lukaku
1 ⚽
1 👟
8'
F
R. Lukaku
1 ⚽
1 👟
8'
F
12
Senne Lammens
G
Senne Lammens
G
15
Thomas Meunier
D
Thomas Meunier
D
Best on the pitch
Kevin De Bruyne
M · Belgium
8.90
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 47 pass
Leandro Trossard
M · Belgium
8.30
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 30 pass
Nicolas Raskin
M · Belgium
7.30
1 👟
· 5 pass
E. Just
M · New
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 40 pass
R. Lukaku
F · Belgium
7.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 2 pass
S. Singh
M · New
7.20
· 15 pass
New Zealand — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Crocombe | G | 93 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Liberato Cacace | D | 79 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Tyler Bindon | D | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Finn Surman | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Payne | D | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Stamenić | M | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 57 | 55% | — | 1 | — |
| Joe Bell | M | 64 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 32% | — | — | — |
| E. Just | M | 93 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 40 | 32% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Ryan Thomas | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Singh | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| C. Wood | F | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Benjamin Old | F | 48 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| C. McCowatt | M | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| F. de Vries | D | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Jesse Randall | F | 48 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Michael Boxall | D | 29 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
Belgium — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Maxim De Cuyper | D | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 58 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Theate | D | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | 4 | 45 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Brandon Mechele | D | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 58 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Timothy Castagne | D | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Hans Vanaken | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 50 | 49% | — | — | — |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Leandro Trossard | M | 72 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 3 | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin De Bruyne | M | 72 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 47 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Doku | M | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | 85 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | F | 21 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Matías Fernández-Pardo | F | 37 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolas Raskin | M | 8 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 5 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Lukaku | F | 8 | 7.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of New Zealand vs Belgium?
The final score was New Zealand 1–5 Belgium.
What did the model predict before New Zealand vs Belgium?
The model assigned 16% probability to a New Zealand win, 20% to a draw, and 63% to an Belgium win.